C.J. Stroud is a bottom 10 quarterback, Joe Burrow is doing this for nothing and Week 11 QB ranks

The Houston Texans should be worried.

Not about their place atop the AFC South, that's secure. About the young quarterback who has spent his second season in the league regressing from his rookie of the year form.

C.J. Stroud has been a mess this fall. His passer rating has dropped a full 10 points from his brilliant 2023 campaign. His expected points added (EPA) has flipped from 35.3 last season -- seventh-best in the NFL -- to -17.3, which ranks 21st. In Week 10, his inability to put a single second-half point on the board at home allowed the Detroit Lions to rally from a 16-point deficit and win a game in which Jared Goff threw five interceptions.

This is all very, very troubling. I'll get into what's gone wrong for Stroud in 2024 and if any fixes are coming below. But for now, I'm interested in figuring out where he sits in the NFL's pecking order. Which quarterback has been the best through Week 10? Fortunately, we’ve got some advanced stats to help figure that out.

Expected points added is a concept that’s been around since 1970. It’s effectively a comparison between what an average quarterback could be expected to do on a certain down and what he actually did — and how it increased his team’s chances of scoring. The model we use comes from The Athletic’s Ben Baldwin and his RBSDM.com website, which is both wildly useful AND includes adjusted EPA, which accounts for defensive strength. It considers the impact of penalties and does not negatively impact passers for fumbles after a completion.

The other piece of the puzzle is completion percentage over expected (CPOE), which is pretty much what it sounds like. It’s a comparison of all the completions a quarterback would be expected to make versus the ones he actually did. Like EPA, it can veer into the negatives and higher is better. So if you chart all 35 primary quarterbacks — the ones who played at least 160 snaps through 10 weeks — you get a chart that looks like this:

Anthony Richardson's spot in what's effectively his own quadrant may play a role in the Indianapolis Colts' refusal to swap Joe Flacco out of the starting lineup while a glimmer of playoff hope remains. If you split up the rest of the league’s starters into tiers, it looks something like this:

Let’s see how this week’s rankings shook out.

1. Into his own MVP stratosphere

1. Lamar Jackson, Baltimore Ravens: 0.197 EPA+CPOE composite

A relatively disappointing performance from Jayden Daniels opened the door for Jackson to take over the top spot in Week 10. The reigning MVP blasted across that threshold with 323 total yards and four passing touchdowns in a 35-34 win over the Cincinnati Bengals.

2. The rest of the MVP hunt

2. Jayden Daniels, Washington Commanders: 0.168 EPA+CPOE composite

3. Joe Burrow, Cincinnati Bengals: 0.167

4. Josh Allen, Buffalo Bills: 0.157

5. Jalen Hurts, Philadelphia Eagles: 0.157

Daniels's composite score dropped by 15 percent when the Pittsburgh Steelers stifled him to mount a 10-point second half comeback in Washington. Burrow's stayed roughly the same after a week where he threw for 428 yards and four touchdowns, which should tell you how good he's been the rest of the year. Allen and Hurts are two very different kinds of runners, but their ability to move the chains on the ground is endemic to their success (and place in Tier II).

3. Occasionally great, occasionally terrible but, so far, pretty good

6. Brock Purdy, San Francisco 49ers: 0.146 EPA+CPOE composite

7. Jared Goff, Detroit Lions: 0.139

8. Kyler Murray, Arizona Cardinals: 0.139

9. Derek Carr, New Orleans Saints: 0.136

10. Patrick Mahomes, Kansas City Chiefs: 0.131

11. Sam Darnold, Minnesota Vikings: 0.129

12. Kirk Cousins, Atlanta Falcons: 0.124

13. Tua Tagovailoa, Miami Dolphins: 0.122

The top of this tier is where Russell Wilson would be had he played enough games in 2024 -- but at 104 snaps he hasn't yet qualified (give it three weeks). There are a few surprising members here, including Carr, who remains statistically viable even if he isn't convincing on the field. Murray has been especially solid in his first full season back from a torn ACL, torturing a once-proud Jets defense by completing 22 of 24 passes in last week's blowout.

We're seeing Darnold regress, which means he's going to deliver some electric moments while being a perpetual turnover risk. Tagovailoa's return means the Dolphins got to keep their playoff hopes alive. Just barely, but still.

4. This metric undersells Justin Herbert

14. Baker Mayfield, Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 0.117 EPA+CPOE composite

15. Justin Herbert, Los Angeles Chargers: 0.102

16. Justin Fields, Pittsburgh Steelers: 0.099

17. Geno Smith, Seattle Seahawks: 0.097

18. Jordan Love, Green Bay Packers: 0.088

This is a perfectly fine group of quarterbacks; the shakiest of the bunch is Fields, who went 4-2 as a starter to get here. But Herbert belongs closer to the second tier for what he's done this season.

He's thrown a single interception and that was all the way back in Week 2. He's holding onto the ball in the pocket than ever in Jim Harbaugh's play-action heavy offense and thriving despite the fact he's getting blitzed more than ever as well. Why is that working? Because he's found the balance between scrambling for gains and stepping up in the pocket to deliver clutch throws while taking hits.

Most importantly, he's getting all this done in a lineup filled with unproven wideouts like Ladd McConkey and Quentin Johnston. The end result is a 6-3 record and dispelled notions of an extended rebuild in Los Angeles.

5. Not where you wanted your franchise quarterback to be

19. Joe Flacco, Indianapolis Colts: 0.074 EPA+CPOE composite

20. Trevor Lawrence, Jacksonville Jaguars: 0.069

21. Aaron Rodgers, New York Jets: 0.059

22. Matthew Stafford, Los Angeles Rams: 0.056

23. Daniel Jones, New York Giants: 0.053

24. Drake Maye, New England Patriots: 0.051

25. Dak Prescott, Dallas Cowboys: 0.050

26. Will Levis, Tennessee Titans: 0.050

27. C.J. Stroud, Houston Texans: 0.049

Let's talk about Stroud. He's been done few favors this season thanks to poor blocking, wide receiving injuries and whatever the hell this was.

But that doesn't convey how lost Stroud has looked at times compared to his brilliant rookie campaign. His reads are sloppy and his confidence when it comes to throwing the ball into tight windows is optimistic in theory but ineffective in execution. His average pass travels a full yard less downfield than it did as a rookie but he's completing fewer passes and his interception rate has nearly doubled.

After completing 56 percent of his deep shots in Year 1, he's down to 30 percent this fall. Nico Collins's return will fix some of those problems -- his average catch this year has come nearly 12 yards beyond the line of scrimmage -- but not all of them. Stroud is failing to maximize the other guys on the roster. Tank Dell, for example, has seen his yards per target drop from 9.5 to 7.0 this season.

I'm not sure what the fix is here. More play-action looks could create the space Stroud needs, especially with Joe Mixon revitalized in the backfield (Stroud's play-action rate has slipped from 24.4 percent as a rookie to 23.7 in 2024).

Maybe it's getting Collins back along the sideline and letting Dell thrive in the slot, where he's considerably more effective (+9.8 EPA on targets near the seam compared to -6.3 elsewhere). Maybe it's asking offensive coordinator Bobby Slowik to find a way to utilize motion effectively now that Stefon Diggs is out for the season.

Either way, Houston's offense has stagnated and the playbook/quarterback combination that took the NFL by surprise in 2023 has created enough data for opponents to effectively stop it. The Texans need innovation to be anything more than a Wild Card participant. Fortunately for them, the AFC South is a mess, leaving them eight weeks to try new things without too much risk of being left behind.

6. Not totally hopeless, but oooooof

28. Gardner Minshew II, Las Vegas Raiders: 0.038 EPA+CPOE composite

29. Bo Nix, Denver Broncos: 0.036

30. Andy Dalton, Carolina Panthers: 0.028

31. Caleb Williams, Chicago Bears: 0.021

32. Deshaun Watson, Cleveland Browns: 0.014

33. Jacoby Brissett, New England Patriots: 0.010

34. Bryce Young, Carolina Panthers: 0.008

This is a grim place for anyone to be, but the most concerning are the three young quarterbacks who make up nearly half the tier. Young is riding the first win streak of his career, but didn't exactly acquit himself well in the process. Williams is limited by several things -- poor coaching and awful blocking foremost among them -- but he's holding the ball way too long and unable to showcase the improvisational skills that carried him to a Heisman Trophy in 2022.

Nix has been the best of the three this season, but his downfield passing remains a concern. He's completed only 40 percent of his throws that travel at least 10 yards beyond the line of scrimmage, per SIS.

7. The Tony Zone(y)

35. Anthony Richardson, Indianapolis Colts: -0.055 EPA+CPOE composite

Yep, he's still here. He'll remain in his quadrant of loneliness until Joe Flacco self destructs or Indianapolis decides the playoffs are no longer viable and brings Richardson back into the lineup.

This article originally appeared on For The Win: C.J. Stroud is a bottom 10 quarterback, Joe Burrow is doing this for nothing and Week 11 QB ranks