Chelsea already one game away from nightmare Nicolas Jackson scenario before Arsenal

After 10 Premier League games last season, Nicolas Jackson had scored just two goals. He had been booked five times - with those coming in six matches - and had served a suspension at the start of October.

Twelve months on and he has more goals than yellow cards under Enzo Maresca so far - a marked improvement - but is still facing another ban. In total it leaves him with a remarkable 42 goals, assists, or bookings from 45 games.

Overall, that's one per 86 minutes. He ended last season averaging some sort of impact on a game per 96 minutes and has, somehow, managed to bring that down even more.

For Chelsea, the biggest boost is that he's now a regular source of output. In his first few months at the club there were some flashes of quality but also reflection in his wider play of why he only cost £30million compared to some of the world's best strikers commanding upwards of double - and sometimes even triple - that amount.

In 2024, however, he's made the price paid for him look relatively tiny. In 26 league games he has scored 13 times, assisting six as well. In that run, Chelsea have lost just four matches, with three of those at the hands of Liverpool, Manchester City, and Arsenal.

Jackson is not just proving himself to be a top-level player, but also a readily available one. Across his 48 league matches since an arrival from Villarreal, he has just missed three. None of those have come due to injury, with 26 being completed from start to finish.

The 23-year-old is durable and reliable, not scoring a single set-piece goal - he has more from open play than Cole Palmer, for example - but still has a problematic streak to his game. Albeit he managed to tone down the extent to which yellow cards were picked up - from five in six to five from the next 29 - Maresca faces the likelihood of him being side-lined sooner rather than later.

Jackson already has four in the current campaign after once more picking up a booking for dissent rather than an actual foul - a common theme in his unwanted portfolio - and is one away from a single-match ban. The threshold is at five during the opening 19 games, and extends to 10 beyond that.

Players get a two-game suspension once at 10 yellow cards. Unlike last season, Chelsea are better placed to deal with Jackson being out, even if his importance in the team is greater.

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Christopher Nkunku, for example, did not even get on to the pitch - despite Chelsea looking to try and grab a late winner against Manchester United. Joao Felix was also left to watch on. Both players are capable of operating as a centre forward, with Nkunku primarily being used there this season.

The Frenchman has had a limited number of chances in the Premier League to make an impact but continues to look far too good for the Conference League. Not naturally a lone striker like Jackson, he will be eyeing up the chance to take advantage of Jackson being ruled out when (surely, rather than if) he gets his next league booking.

The timing also comes at a key point for Maresca. Jackson, barring injury, will be available to play against Arsenal next weekend, but then there is a crucial run of matches after the international break. Chelsea take on promoted sides Leicester and Southampton in a group of four that includes Tottenham and Aston Villa as well.

Maresca will be keen for Jackson, his starting No.9, to be around for the Spurs and Villa clashes.