College Football Playoff bracket projection boils down to decision on SMU and Alabama

Follow along as the College Football Playoff rankings are unveiled.

The nightmare scenario has landed right on the College Football Playoff selection committee’s doorstep.

There was a chance for an upset-free conference championship weekend, allowing the committee to cut and past the penultimate playoff rankings for a very drama-free 12-team bracket.

And then Clemson beat SMU. And worse yet, after leading by 17 points at halftime and again in the third quarter, the Tigers were eventually outgained by 143 yards and needed a miraculous 56-yard field goal as time expired to win 34-31.

Had Clemson won convincingly, the committee would’ve been able to choose three-loss Alabama over the Mustangs as the bracket’s last at-large team by focusing on the Crimson Tide’s wins against Georgia, South Carolina, Missouri and LSU. The committee views any one of those wins more favorably than the Mustangs’ best win.

A narrow, very competitive loss to a ranked team changes the dynamic of this controversial decision and exponentially increases the odds that outrage dominates Sunday’s selection process.

In the end, look for SMU to stay in the field and nudge Alabama out of the bracket.

While Alabama has better wins, the Mustangs can tout two losses, both to ranked teams by a combined five points; a nine-game winning streak, with six wins against bowl teams; only two Power Four wins decided by single digits; and a place along Oregon as the only Power Four teams to go unbeaten in conference play.

WILD DAY: Georgia, Clemson leads winners and losers as playoff gets sorted

BEAUTIFUL CHAOS: Playoff faces tough decisions after conference championships

Here’s how the bracket should look on Sunday afternoon:

College Football Playoff bracket projection

1. Oregon (13-0)

Maybe the Ducks will stop flying under the radar after beating Penn State 45-37 to complete a perfect run through the Big Ten. Wins against the Nittany Lions, Ohio State and Boise State make Oregon an absolute no-brainer No. 1 in the playoff rankings.

2. Georgia (11-2)

The Bulldogs outlasted Texas in a 22-19 overtime win to capture the SEC and one of the top two playoff seeds. Beating the Longhorns twice in one year is Georgia’s crowning achievement. But what does that mean, really? Nonetheless, the Bulldogs will enter the postseason as one of the favorites to win it all.

3. Boise State (12-1)

Behind 206 yards from running back Ashton Jeanty, the Broncos beat UNLV for the second time this year and secured an opening-round bye into the quarterfinals. Boise State has won 11 in a row since losing 37-34 to Oregon in September.

4. Arizona State (11-2)

Clemson’s win is a huge gift for the Sun Devils, who would’ve been one of the bottom two seeds without finishing as one of the top four conference champions. The Sun Devils have won six in a row, three against ranked competition, and seven of eight overall to enter the playoff as one of the hottest teams in the bracket.

5. Penn State (11-2)

The Nittany Lions played Oregon tight enough to land in the coveted No. 5 spot. That’s projected to earn Penn State a date with Clemson in the first round and then a matchup with Arizona State in the quarterfinals. Both of the Nittany Lions’ losses came by a touchdown.

6. Notre Dame (11-1)

The Fighting Irish have been set to play host in the opening round since topping Southern California to end the regular season. They’re projected to take on SMU. Notre Dame ended the regular season with the largest scoring differential in the FBS and as the only team in the country to rank in the top five nationally in scoring offense and defense.

7. Texas (11-2)

Blame a lack of marquee wins for this drop down the rankings. The Longhorns own no wins against ranked competition and just one victory, last week against Texas A&M, against an opponent with more than seven wins. That leaves Texas projected to swap spots with Georgia from the penultimate rankings and meet Indiana.

8. Ohio State (10-2)

A crucial postseason for Ryan Day and Ohio State will begin with a matchup against Tennessee in Columbus. While Day has the backing of athletics director Ross Bjork and an overall record that ranks among the most successful in modern Bowl Subdivision history, losing to the Volunteers in the opening round could bring things to a boiling point.

9. Tennessee (10-2)

Tennessee’s defense has held all but two opponents to under 362 yards of offense and ranks fourth nationally in scoring and yards allowed per play. This unit has what it takes to handle an Ohio State offense that was held in check in the loss to Michigan.

10. Indiana (11-1)

The matchup against the Longhorns would help finally answer one of the biggest questions from the regular season: Is Indiana good enough to compete on this stage? The loss at Ohio State in November says there’s work to be done, but the way the Hoosiers dismantled nearly every other opponent on the schedule shows how good this team can be.

11. SMU (11-2)

Clemson could draw the No. 11 seed by virtue of the head-to-head win and the ACC championship. But SMU has more wins overall, more wins against bowl teams and fared better in matchups with common opponents such as Louisville and Pittsburgh. The Mustangs were also the better team on Saturday night, especially in the second half.

12. Clemson (10-3)

Based on his sprint around the field after Clemson’s field goal went through, Dabo Swinney doesn’t care where his team lands in the bracket. Just getting here is borderline remarkable given how poorly the Tigers looked for chunks of this season, that they lost to South Carolina just last week and that Miami needed to drop two of three down the stretch to miss the championship game.

This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: College Football Playoff bracket projection: Alabama, SMU in or out?