Shaikin: 'I don't see why not.' Diamondbacks primed to take down Dodgers again

Torey Lovullo is L.A. through and through: born in Santa Monica, son of a Hollywood producer, played his high school ball at the old Montclair Prep in Van Nuys, starred at UCLA. He managed the Arizona Diamondbacks into the World Series last year, but he cannot persuade his friends and extended family to surrender their allegiance to the hometown Dodgers.

“About 80% of my family,” Lovullo said, “are Dodger fans.”

He goes to neighborhood holiday parties, where the talk is how great the Dodgers are going to be with Mookie Betts or Shohei Ohtani or whoever. His mother bleeds Sedona red, but the spouses of his siblings do not, and neither do most of his high school and college friends.

“There’s no conversion there,” Lovullo said. “They’re 100% bleeding Dodger blue.”

That could make for a lighthearted subplot this weekend, with the Diamondbacks within three games of the Dodgers in the National League West before Thursday's action. The teams open a four-game series here Friday, with the postseason five weeks away.

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The latest Baseball Prospectus projections give the Dodgers a 100% chance of making the playoffs, the Diamondbacks a 97% chance. The Diamondbacks eliminated the Dodgers from the playoffs last year, and they could do it again this year.

“I don’t see why not,” Arizona pitcher Merrill Kelly said. “I definitely think we’re a better team than we were last year, top to bottom.

“If we can beat them then, we can definitely beat them now.”

The Diamondbacks, remember, were the last team into the playoffs last year, a team that finished 16 games behind the Dodgers, a team that won 84 games in the regular season and then dismissed the Dodgers in three games in October.

When America says “fluke,” the Diamondbacks shrug.

“I think most people thought it was a fluke,” Arizona president Derrick Hall said. “We sort of limped and backed into the playoffs, and then we got hot at the right time. Look at the World Series matchup: It was two wild-card teams that barely got in.”

Said general manager Mike Hazen: “I think any reference I have heard for the last year — including when I talk about it — is that we were an 84-win team. That is automatically implying we were a fluke. And I get that. I think it’s fair. If you’re an 84-win team, you shouldn’t have the expectation that you are going to play in the World Series.

“We got hot, and we played well, but we wanted to springboard off that. We didn’t want the story to be that we were just a fluke. We worked hard at that this offseason, to ensure that what happened last season was hopefully the first of a few appearances in the postseason, and not just one and done.”

The Diamondbacks spent the money to get better, which is what you want. The results were not what you want, at least not at first: Pitcher Eduardo Rodriguez, who vetoed a trade to the Dodgers last year, signed for $80 million, then suffered a shoulder injury in spring training. Pitcher Jordan Montgomery, signed for one year and $25 million, carried an ERA over 6.00 into the All-Star break. Outfielder Corbin Carroll, signed for $111 million during his 2023 rookie of the year campaign, was batting .210 with two home runs through June.

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Montgomery is in the bullpen now, his ERA still above 6.00. Rodriguez finally made his season debut this month; he is undefeated in four starts. In July and August, Carroll has 15 home runs, and an OPS above .900.

The Dodgers have the superstars atop their lineup, but the Diamondbacks lead the major leagues in runs scored. They get on base more often than any other team in the NL, running up pitch counts and ousting starters early.

“The Dodgers have been the prime example of that,” Lovullo said.

Every Arizona player with at least 100 at-bats has an on-base percentage over .300. On Wednesday, the Diamondbacks won when their No. 8 and No. 9 batters drew two-out walks in the eighth inning against Edwin Diaz, the star New York Mets closer, and Carroll followed with a game-winning grand slam.

All that offense is all the more impressive at a time they are winning with arguably their three most productive hitters this season on the injured list: cleanup batter Christian Walker, catcher Gabriel Moreno and second baseman Ketel Marte, whom Lovullo chose over Ohtani as the NL leadoff batter in the All-Star Game.

The reinforcements and the revived include a veteran platoon at designated hitter — Dodgers alum Joc Pederson (career-high .946 OPS) and Angels alum Randal Grichuk — third baseman Eugenio Suarez, who leads the NL in runs batted in since the All-Star break, outfielder and former first-round pick Jake McCarthy (.809 OPS) and catcher and former second-round pick Adrian Del Castillo (batting .354 in 14 games).

The Diamondbacks acknowledge Betts and Max Muncy have missed significant time and the Dodgers have won without a lineup at full strength, just as Arizona has.

Still, the national reaction hits different when the topic is Walker, Moreno and Marte here as opposed to Ohtani, Betts and Freeman in Los Angeles.

“The Dodgers have been a national brand for however long they have been around,” Arizona pitcher Zac Gallen said. “They have been the team in the NL West, and they have been in the playoffs for however many years.

“Not to take anything away from those guys — you’re talking about three of the best players in all of baseball — but I would be intrigued what Ketel Marte’s case would look like in terms of MVP if he didn’t play in Arizona. What does it look like if he is playing in one of those big markets? Is it as strong as some of those other guys?”

Ohtani leads the NL with 42 home runs. He is batting .295, leads the NL in OPS and ranks second in RBI and stolen bases. Marte is batting .298 with 30 home runs; he ranks third in OPS. He also plays a key defensive position; Ohtani is a designated hitter.

Baseball Reference has Ohtani leading the NL in WAR (6.7), followed by Marte (6.0). Fangraphs has the Mets’ Francisco Lindor leading the NL in WAR (6.6), followed by Ohtani (6.4).

Ohtani should win the MVP race, but the Diamondbacks would be fine if he won and they made back-to-back appearances in the World Series — this time, followed by a parade.

The Dodgers have seven pennants on display at Dodger Stadium, one for each of the seven World Series championships in franchise history.

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The Diamondbacks proudly post 10 logos high above the outfield at Chase Field, in recognition of one World Series championship, two league championships, five division championships, and two wild-card berths.

Frankly, Lovullo said, he would like the Diamondbacks to display World Series championships only, just as the Dodgers do. That, of course, would require winning multiple World Series championships.

“That’s what great organizations do: the Yankees, the Dodgers, the Red Sox, to name a few,” he said. “They don’t just do it once. They validate it by doing it over and over. I hope we get to that point one day, but it’s still a young franchise. It’s only 25 years old. It’s going to take a little time to get to that level.

“In 100 years, I do hope that we have nothing but world championships up there, and that our group and our time was responsible for hanging a couple of those banners.”

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This story originally appeared in Los Angeles Times.