Eagles say they didn’t lose because of Saquon Barkley’s drop. Analytics support that more than you might think

PHILADELPHIA — Jalen Hurts didn’t waste time clearing the air.

The Philadelphia Eagles quarterback spoke to his running back directly late Monday night and shared the message with reporters. Hurts was disappointed by the 22-21 loss to the Atlanta Falcons, sure. But he was not channeling that disappointment toward Saquon Barkley after Barkley’s late-game drop.

“We just didn’t make the play in that moment,” Hurts said. “I trust him in every moment. He's a hell of a player. He gave us a big spark in those moments.

“It just wasn’t for us tonight. … We’ll be better from it.”

The drop that lingered in the Lincoln Financial Field air need not define the Eagles’ season. Per some advanced analytics it did not even headline the loss that dropped Philadelphia to 1-1.

Let’s break it down.

After Falcons running back Bijan Robinson failed to convert on fourth-and-1 from Atlanta’s 39-yard line, the Eagles got the ball back, up 18-15 with 5:38 to play.

Their chance of victory, per NFL Next Gen Stats’ win-probability model: 86 percent.

As the Eagles marched 29 yards downfield thanks to 26 yards off six Barkley touches, the odds continued to edge in their favor.

Then Philadelphia faced third-and-3. Eagles head coach Nick Sirianni and offensive coordinator Kellen Moore watched as the Falcons’ defense began to stack the box. So Philadelphia didn’t veer from its top skill player, but the team trusted him to motion left to right and then roll out to the right for a catch.

Hurts’ pass hit both of Barkley’s hands before the running back lost it. Philadelphia settled for a field goal.

“Make that catch, the game is over,” Barkley said afterward. “I dropped the ball. Let my team down today. Shouldn’t have put the defense in that position.”

Barkley’s accountability wasn’t surprising. The New York Giants’ pick with the second overall selection of the 2018 NFL Draft modeled accountability through much of six seasons with his now division rival.

And yet, while Barkley dropped the pass, did he truly drop the ball in the game? His teammates and coaches say he didn’t — and there is data to support them.

Win-probability models are just one metric by which to measure the impact a play has on the game’s outcome. The surprisingly minimal impact Barkley’s drop had on the results reflects how much more had to go wrong for Philadelphia to ultimately lose.

The Eagles had a 99% chance of winning before the drop, per Next Gen Stats’ model, and a 94% chance after the third-and-3 whiff. When Eagles kicker Jake Elliott connected on the field goal to extend Philadelphia’s lead from 3 to 6 points with 1:42 to play, their algorithmic chance of success was still 85%.

A 70-yard Falcons drive in just 65 seconds plummeted that chance. Falcons safety Jessie Bates III’s interception of Hurts with 27 seconds to play iced it.

“We’ll all have things that we want back,” Sirianni said. “We are all responsible for this loss.”

Through 2 weeks, Barkley validating Eagles’ lucrative investment

Barkley reassured Hurts that he would improve from the drop.

“I could sit here and complain and be upset about it, or I could be a professional athlete and go back to the drawing board,” Barkley said. “I’ve made that play multiple times. I’ve missed that play before, too.

“I got to man up to it, own up to what I’m doing, and I can promise those guys in this locker room that I’m going to be better.”

Barkley is already exceeding expectations after Philadelphia signed him in free agency in March.

NFL monetary trends have skewed away from placing high value on running backs, especially on second contracts, in part due to concerns about veteran running back durability and in part because of beliefs that schematic creativity and offensive line investment can compensate for top-shelf running back talent.

In other words: Some teams looking to save money somewhere believe running back is their safest bet.

If a few good players combine to produce 60% of what a great player could be for 10% of the money, for example, many NFL teams will take that tradeoff.

The Eagles balked at that trend when they signed Barkley to a three-year deal worth up to $37.75 million with $26 million in guarantees that essentially pay him $13 million each this year and next.

Barkley’s guarantees rank third at the position and his annual average value fourth.

Through two weeks, he’s validating that investment.

After averaging 88.7 scrimmage yards per game in 14 games with the Giants last season, Barkley is averaging 124 yards from scrimmage through two weeks with the Eagles — his best mark since 2018, when he posted 126.75 per game as a rookie.

Barkley’s 102 rushing yards per game exceed his previous high by 20 yards and his 2023 production by 33.3 a game. And while two weeks is a small sample size, his production has come against seeming playoff contenders in the Falcons and Green Bay Packers.

Only Alvin Kamara has scored more touchdowns than Barkley’s three.

And Barkley’s league-high 52 touches have commanded defensive attention away from Hurts, who is also re-establishing the escape artistry that helped power the Eagles’ NFC title campaign two seasons ago.

Hurts’ 85 rushing yards Monday night bested all of his games last season, his 6.5 yards per attempt also above each of his 2023 marks. The duo works well together.

“Some things turn on when they need to, and it turned on,” Hurts said of his run production. “Clearly, it wasn’t enough to get the win.”

Philadelphia will need plenty more firepower on Sunday when they visit the New Orleans Saints (2-0), whose scorching 91 points in two weeks is 21 more than the second-place Arizona Cardinals. Hurts and Barkley will need to carry the load heavily then as they did Monday night, as receiver A.J. Brown works through a hamstring injury.

Their teammates expect they will — including on the next chance to connect for an end-of-game first down.

“We know he’s gonna make these plays [and] he knows he’s gonna make these plays,” veteran defensive end Brandon Graham said of Barkley. “We all trust each other out there. We just let this one slip today. It sucks but it’s a good learning lesson for us. … As a good team, we got to make sure we don’t let opportunities slip because that’s what happens — you get beat like that.

“We’ve been on the other side of it, too, when we came back because of other people’s mistakes.”