Eddie Howe is about to find out how much Newcastle’s Saudi owners back him

They say you find out who your real friends are during the tough times and Eddie Howe is about to discover just how much backing he has from Newcastle United’s Saudi Arabian owners.

We are arguably going to learn more in the next four to six weeks about what this project, led by Saudi Arabia’s Public Investment Fund (PIF), is about than we have in 26 months since the takeover was ratified by the Premier League.

Are Newcastle going to be just another English club with ambitious owners who sack a manager at the first hint of a slump? Are PIF going to make the same sort of knee-jerk boardroom decisions that have characterised other newcomers to the Premier League and make Howe the scapegoat for a dip in results and form?

Or is this the long term, carefully considered growth plan we were told it was, led by an ownership group that claimed it had already anticipated the bumps in the road that would come with transforming a club constantly haunted by the fear of relegation into consistent European contenders?

‌What does Howe’s future hold?

Howe has done a magnificent job since he was appointed in November  2021, saving the club from relegation in his first season and finishing in the top four in his second. He has, until this point, comfortably exceeded expectations.

As a result, the 46-year-old has plenty of goodwill in the bank with supporters and beyond a few typically rabid responses on social media, retains the full backing of the fanbase. There is nobody seriously arguing he is under pressure, let alone calling for him to be sacked.

However, for the first time since he was appointed, Howe is going through a genuine bad spell. Newcastle have lost eight out of their past 12 games in all competitions. After two years of praise and plaudits, there is now angst and the hint of division on Tyneside.

Newcastle were knocked out of Europe following a 2-1 home defeat by AC Milan in the Champions League earlier this month, which meant they finished bottom of their group.

A week later, they somehow managed to lose their Carabao Cup quarter-final to Chelsea on penalties, despite winning with just two minutes of injury time left to play, following a blunder by their previously talismanic skipper Kieran Trippier.

Trippier’s slump in form (he was also guilty of costly errors in the defeats by Everton and Tottenham Hotspur) has been symbolic of a team who have lost too many of the things that made them successful.

Successive defeats against Luton Town and Nottingham Forest have, for the first time, led to criticism of Howe’s decision-making and team selection. Until now, a crippling injury list has offered mitigation but patience is not infinite. And Newcastle’s January fixture list is brutal.

They travel to Liverpool on New Year’s Day, followed by a home game against Manchester City and then a trip to Aston Villa to finish the month off. In the middle of it all there is a derby game against Sunderland, on enemy territory, in the FA Cup.

Should Howe lose all four games in January, he will be in trouble. At the very least, he must avoid defeat at Sunderland, because that is a result that matters more than anything to the supporters. Lose to the old enemy and emotions replace reason. Anger will rise and suddenly the two games at the start of February, at home to Luton and away to Nottingham Forest, will move into must-win territory.

‌How much do PIF listen to their UK partners?

‌Even if the worst was to happen and Newcastle failed to win any of their next six games, it is far from certain Howe would be sacked.

Telegraph Sport has spoken to all of the main domestic power brokers at Newcastle United over the last few months. All have said the same thing – they view Howe as their long-term manager; that this season was always going to be far harder than the last and that they had anticipated a significant drop in league position as a result.

They would not panic if this sort of thing happened and Howe will survive any slump because they believe he is the perfect manager for the Newcastle United they want to build over the next few years. The club are working to a five-year plan which was at least two years ahead of schedule when they qualified for the Champions League last season. Howe’s job is safe. It is about as unequivocal backing as you are likely to receive in modern football.

But that ignores the elephant in the room. Telegraph Sport has not spoken to Saudi chairman Yasir Al-Rumayyan and whether PIF shares that exalted view of Howe is unknown. PIF controls Newcastle United. They have the final call on every major decision and sign off on all the others too. They took an 80 per cent controlling stake for a reason.

This is PIF’s football project, they have merely entrusted others to run it for them, mainly because Al-Rumayyan has so many others to oversee and the Kingdom itself has so many other interests as it looks to expand its global reach and influence. Newcastle is a small cog in a much bigger machine.

PIF are new to football, but what we do know is that they, one day, want to be No 1 in England and Europe. Al-Rumayyan is on the record saying that in an Amazon documentary. Newcastle are way off that target at the moment.

Profit and Sustainability rules have effectively made PIF’s vast wealth irrelevant as they cannot simply buy success in the same way Chelsea and Manchester City did before them. Newcastle have the richest owners in the world, but they are nowhere near being the richest club in the world.

Do PIF appreciate this context? Do they understand that progress is bound to be slower than they would ideally like? Do they share the view of the UK board members that there would be dips as well as peaks in the journey? Will they listen to their arguments that Howe is not the problem, but injuries and the overall quality of the squad are the things holding them back this season? If PIF decide they want to get rid of Howe at any point, that is what will happen.

As things stand, PIF are said to be in total alignment with all the other board members and Howe is their manager for the long term. He will be protected during any short-term pain.

‌Improving squad in January will be hard

It is understood that Howe would like as many as three new players in the January window, with a midfielder and forward the main priorities. They could also look to sign another goalkeeper as first choice Nick Pope is out for several months with a dislocated shoulder and there are concerns about back-up Martin Dubravka’s recent form.

However, Newcastle’s summer transfer business was severely hindered by Profit and Sustainability rules, which is one of the reasons – combined with star signing Sandro Tonali’s 10-month ban for breaching gambling rules at AC Milan – why the squad has been so badly exposed.

Those problems will still exist in January and Newcastle know whatever they spend in the winter window will reduce what they can do in the summer one. Difficult decisions will need to be made. The 10-point penalty dished out to Everton for breaching these rules has sharpened everyone’s minds. Newcastle are also particularly wary of breaking them because of the controversy surrounding their Saudi owners.

The desire to strengthen the squad is there, but it will not be easy. Newcastle are believed to be focusing mainly on loan deals, but the message from the board has been that they will do whatever they can to help the manager.