Florida's Billy Napier faces hot seat with brutal schedule. It would be better with Tennessee's cushy slate

Did Lane Kiffin draw up Florida’s football schedule for 2024? Whoever aligned this collection of opponents for the Gators must not mind the idea of a coaching search in Gainesville.

I’ve wondered what Florida might achieve with a different schedule. Say, Tennessee’s cushy schedule.

I’ve also wondered whether the Vols might wilt against Florida’s savage schedule.

An easy schedule wouldn’t make Vanderbilt a playoff contender. And a fierce schedule won’t turn Georgia into chumps.

In between the SEC’s top and bottom, though, so much of whether a team is viewed as a playoff contender or bound for a middling season depends on its schedule draw.

Billy Napier can’t afford another middling season, but Florida's struggling third-year coach will encounter a schedule full of land mines.

That’s a shame for Napier, because he improved UF’s roster after totaling just 11 wins through two seasons. If you squint through the heat simmering around Napier’s seat, you might notice lineup improvements.

In particular, he gave quarterback Graham Mertz some weapons. Elijhah Badger (transfer from Arizona State) and Chimere Dike (Wisconsin) will join Eugene Wilson III, who had a standout freshman season, to offer Mertz three proven receivers.

Napier also brought in a few transfer defensive backs to solidify a pass defense that didn't play to the Florida standard the past couple of seasons.

And how can you ignore freshman quarterback DJ Lagway's athleticism? Mertz will conduct this offense, but Lagway’s skills provide the opportunity to experiment.

Yes, Florida's roster is superior to last year’s. I’m just not convinced the record will show it, considering the schedule. And it’s hard for a coach to sell program progress in Year 3 if the season ends with another losing record.

“The great thing about our schedule is, we don’t have to take this on as individuals,” Napier said Wednesday at SEC media days. “We get to do this as a team.”

Is that supposed to be an advantage? No team tackles a schedule as individuals. Everyone gets to face its schedule as a team, and Tennessee’s team will play Chattanooga while the Gators open against Miami. The Vols will close with Vanderbilt on the day Florida finishes against Florida State.

No SEC team other than Florida will face 11 Power Four opponents during the regular season.

The Gators' gantlet will include SEC games against the Vols, Georgia, Texas, LSU and Ole Miss, all of which will be preseason top-15 teams.

By comparison, Missouri avoids Georgia, Texas, Ole Miss, Tennessee and LSU. What a gift for Eliah Drinkwitz. The Tigers couldn’t have drawn it up any better if SEC officials had devised Mizzou's schedule over slices of Shakespeare’s pizza in Columbia, Missouri.

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Roster to roster, not much separates Florida from Missouri or Tennessee, but the latter two profile as playoff contenders while Napier slogs through quicksand.

Don't forget, Florida bullied Tennessee in The Swamp last season, and Missouri needed a great escape to fend off the Gators in Columbia.

A year later, Florida is better. Its schedule is brutal.

Napier oozed platitudes during his turn in front of reporters in Dallas.

“There’s an old saying: It's not about the size of the Gator in the fight, but it's about the size of the fight in the Gator,” he said.

That’s an old saying? Sounds like a line from a made-for-Roku movie.

Another of Napier’s doozies: “We’re on schedule, to some degree.”

I cringed at that one. An 11-14 record after two seasons wouldn't qualify as “on schedule” at South Carolina, let alone Florida.

Napier also offered this one: “Change doesn’t happen overnight.”

Usually true, but in this conference, change needs to happen within three seasons.

And, one more from Florida’s coach: “Timing is everything.”

It is, and the timing of this schedule stinks for an embattled coach who sorely needs Florida’s record to reflect the progress he insists is taking place.

Blake Toppmeyer is the USA TODAY Network's SEC Columnist. Email him at BToppmeyer@gannett.com and follow him on Twitter @btoppmeyer.

This article originally appeared on The Gainesville Sun: Florida's Billy Napier faces brutal schedule while on hot seat