Gwyn Jones: Warren Gatland is now fighting for his job but I expect Wales to win

Warren Gatland has not been sacked in 23 years of coaching. That is some achievement in professional sport at the highest level. The last time the axe fell for him was in 2001 when he was head coach of Ireland and he was usurped harshly by his assistant Eddie O’Sullivan.

However, Gatland is no stranger to pressure, having coached in three successive Lions series deciders. He knows what it’s like to have his reputation on the line.

But this is different. Wales have not won a test match in over a year. Gatland is fighting to keep his job now.

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I’m not sure it was wise of Gatland to publicly announce that he offered his resignation in the moments following the Wooden Spoon defeat to Italy. I suspect he was trying to take control of the narrative in the aftermath of a desperately poor Six Nations. The old ‘dead cat strategy’ to divert the media away from an abject and directionless campaign.

Gatland has cultivated a reputation as a master manipulator of press, frequently throwing hand grenades to grab the attention and wind up his opponents. But on this occasion, he was too clever by half.

He now cannot escape the fact that by bringing the precariousness of his position into the public domain, he has made it a legitimate point to peruse until things improve.

Since the offer to resign was made, Wales have lost two further tests against a pretty average Australian side. Wales are 11th in the world rankings, miles behind Italy, Scotland and Argentina, and they remain a few points behind this Sunday’s opponents Fiji, even after their thrashing last weekend.

That is why here is a different type of pressure. The team is struggling and low on confidence. This is a group of players that don’t have the physicality of years gone by and require a different approach to be more competitive. Can Wales, can Warren adapt?

Wales’ best chance of a win comes in their opening match against the notoriously unpredictable Fiji. They will be much stronger than they were against Scotland.

Gatland’s greatest attribute has always been his ability to identify specific attributes in players that will fit into his system. He has then stuck with those players through thick and thin. More often than not, it worked out.

However, the Midas touch has left him some time ago. I don’t think he got his Lions selection right in 2021, and he has tried numerous combinations in the midfield and back row since his return and we are still no wiser as to who his best team is.

Gareth Anscombe will return a fly-half. At 33 years of age and a harrowing list of injuries behind him, he doesn’t strike you as a long-term solution to the problematic playmaker position.

In announcing Ben Thomas as the best back in Wales, Gatland has made himself a hostage to fortune. He has to pick him for this whole series because if he doesn’t, that statement looks pretty ridiculous.

I think Thomas has played very well for the last year or so. He has managed to do something quite unusual, he has succeeded in changing the type of player he is mid-career. Lots of young players improve as they gain power and strength but Thomas has done more than that. He has morphed from a light-touch, skill-based player into one that looks comfortable taking the ball into contact.

However, being better in contact is a long way from the physicality that elite sides have at twelve such as Bundi Aki, Jonathan Danty, Ollie Lawrence or Damian De Allende, these are very different animals altogether. Thomas is not that type of player, which is fine, but he will need a sturdy fly half alongside him at test match level to cope with the teams that do.

Another interesting aspect of selection is the rapid ascent of a second New Zealander of Welsh heritage into the squad. Blair Murray has been fast-tracked into international rugby after playing eight games for Cantebury (not the Crusaders) and a few for the Scarlets. He follows Taine Plumtree, who at least managed six matches in two seasons for the Blues before playing for Wales.

I think Wales have a better than average chance of winning on Sunday. I expect fitness and preparedness to be decisive. Wales will try to exploit the driving lineout to win penalties, field position and score tries.

If they get into the ascendency from the start it allows the team to be less anxious. Wales must force Fiji to lose their composure and concede penalties.

Wales do not want Fiji to be within a score in the dying minutes. They have too many x-factor players for a situation like that and I can’t see them dropping the ball with the line at their mercy again.

Gwyn Jones is part of S4C's commentary team for the autumn internationals. Every Wales game in the Autumn series will be available to watch on S4C, S4C Clic and BBC iPlayer.