Hannah Hampton or Mary Earps: Who will be England’s No 1 at Euro 2025?

A save. A roar. A half fist pump/half full-body pump. Mary Earps likely did not expect to release something so cathartic on a Tuesday night in Coventry against South Africa — a team ranked 48 places below England by FIFA.

But after two one-on-ones (one disallowed for offside) left her splayed on the ground, the net rippling, Earps looked to have finally had enough.

The save was significant, for England and also for the Paris Saint-Germain goalkeeper. A comfortable 2-0 lead suddenly looked at risk of vanishing entirely, the visitors fuelled by the hosts’ flimsy defence and Christinah Kgatlana’s sublimely taken second-half goal, the result of a poorly hit pass from captain Leah Williamson.

An equaliser felt capable of crumbling whatever bastion remained. A save would reinforce it.

Seeing Earps at the centre of it all was far from surprising. This is where the 31-year-old tends to thrive — under aching piles of pressure. But the peculiarities of the scenario still felt strange. A second-string starting XI against South Africa in Coventry was notable for its youth and experimentation — manager Sarina Wiegman made eight changes from the side that lost 4-3 to Germany at Wembley on Friday — as much as it was for Earps’ inclusion.

Tuesday night’s match conjured more questions than answers for Wiegman. This international window brought with it a bizarre non-identity in attack, held together by individual bursts of technicolour, an increasingly porous, disjointed defence, and the sight of familiar faces making increasingly familiar mistakes.

But it also emphasised the battle for the No 1 shirt between Chelsea’s Hannah Hampton and Earps — specifically, the latter’s position in the contest.

The battle has gathered pace for the past year. Friendlies against Austria and Italy in February were split between the pair, as were the Euro 2025 qualifiers against Sweden and the Republic of Ireland in April.

Earps’ hip injury, sustained in the opening minutes of England’s qualifier against France in late May, meant Hampton played for the vast majority of the two clashes with Herve Renard’s side. The 23-year-old took her opportunity, making a splendid save on the cusp of stoppage time in the second meeting a few days later to preserve the visitors’ lead and reinvigorate England’s qualifying campaign.

Hampton’s reward was the starting role in England’s final matches against the Republic of Ireland and Sweden, helping seal qualification to next summer’s tournament.

The statement was clear: welcome to the battle.

Wiegman’s selection of Hampton on Friday night suggested she is edging this fight. The difference in magnitude of the occasions was stark, as was the contrast in team selection.

As England look to find a new dimension to their game before next summer’s European Championship, it is worth considering what each goalkeeper offers in their style of play, from Hampton’s superior distribution skills and shot-stopping to Earps’ ability to handle pressure and organise her back line.

Earps’ ability to save goal-bound strikes is lionised (you don’t earn the nickname Mary Queen of Stops for nothing).

Her time at PSG has not yet provided an adequate sample size from which to consider this at club level this season but last season for Manchester United, Earps was not the best shot-stopper in the WSL.

Expected goals on target (xGOT) is an accurate way to measure goalkeeper performance. The graphic below shows how many goals a goalkeeper was expected to concede based on the quality of the shots on target they faced.

This can be used to measure their ‘goals prevented’, which compares how many goals a goalkeeper actually conceded against the number they were expected to ship. The higher the goals prevented number, the better the shot-stopping performance. Another helpful metric is the ‘goals prevented rate’, which adjusts for the volume of shots a goalkeeper faces.

Based on the quality of shots Earps faced last season for United, she conceded at the expected rate on average. This is demonstrated by her goals prevented rate of 1.0 (far right column).

Comparatively, Hampton registered a higher rate of 1.3, while Manchester City keeper Khiara Keating, who Wiegman did not select for this camp, topped the charts with 1.6.

Factors beyond the goalkeepers’ control come into play here, including the defenders operating in front of them. Manchester United conceded 36 goals last season, the fifth-best defensive record in the league but well off the pace of champions Chelsea (18) and runners-up City (15). United’s porous back line made life harder for Earps.

On Friday against Germany, Hampton produced three remarkable saves, including a fingertip denial of Linda Dallmann’s intrepid 35-yard lob. These kinds of moments are becoming more commonplace for Hampton.

Yet more routine saves and moments of erraticism are still proving problem areas.

Hampton should have done better for Germany’s third, when Klara Buhl’s effort wriggled underneath her at the near post. Hampton’s spilled catch for the cross that led to Germany’s penalty in the 71st minute to put the visitors 4-2 up also drew grimaces. The sight was not dissimilar from her performance against Sweden in July, when she fumbled the ball twice in four minutes late on but avoided any punishment.

Hampton drew headlines before the international break with a bizarre gaffe that saw the Chelsea player fumble Amanda Nilden’s deep strike, gifting Tottenham Hotspur an equaliser in a game the WSL champions eventually won 5-2.

At such a young age, these kinds of errors are arguably to be expected — a symptom of an exciting, but ultimately fallible, rawness. But for a national team, such moments can be costly, especially when up against teams with the quality to punish them.

Earps came up with a big save of her own on Tuesday in the second half to keep England’s 2-1 lead intact, as well as a crucial intervention in the 88th minute when she came out to claim Lebohang Ramalepe’s dangerous cross and snuff out the danger.

While her saves were more commonplace, Earps showed the value in her experience and calm, twice bailing out Esme Morgan towards the end of the first half after the City centre-back underhit her back pass and forced Earps to think quickly on her toes.

There was little Earps could do for South Africa’s goal. Williamson’s woefully placed pass to Stanway on the halfway line allowed Kgatlana to nip in and scythe through the England half, bearing down on Earps. The 28-year-old’s shot was excellent, driven low and kissing the inside of the post.

Hampton’s distribution is a huge asset, particularly as England look to beat an opposition press.

Against Germany, she released Lauren Hemp and Lucy Bronze out wide with diagonal balls, but also allowed Walsh to turn with a simple central ball from the back. Such versatility to switch up long and short balls is critical as England work to become more unpredictable.

However, there was a moment when centre-back Alex Greenwood, on as a second-half substitute, remonstrated with Hampton for playing a short ball to the left rather than identifying the space on the right.

The caveat here is that it is difficult to detangle a coach’s instructions from a player’s instincts.

Looking at Hampton’s distribution for Chelsea last season (the sample size is too small for this season), her passes were notably skewed to the left, whereas Earps spread her passes more evenly across either side of the pitch but delivered fewer long balls.

Against South Africa, this was also largely the case as England dominated possession and could easily build out from the back. Earps’ distribution was limited to simple passes to her centre-backs, Williamson and Morgan.

Yet, a few attempts at longer passes, including one to left-back Greenwood in the first half, looked awkward and clunky.

Another big plus for Earps is her constant communication and defensive organisation.

On Tuesday night, despite England’s control, Earps could still be heard directing her back line and team-mates to get their positioning right, often coming out to confront her team-mates and point to where she wanted them to be.

England continued to look vulnerable at the back, particularly from Kgatlana who wreaked havoc with her pace in behind, but it was this kind of communication that could have been valuable on Friday night against Germany as the game spiralled out of England’s control in the opening half hour.

Fittingly after an international camp punctuated by discourse surrounding the faith entrusted in players in form at their clubs and those not, the goalkeeper position functions as its own kind of microcosm.

There is an irony in Earps joining PSG to sate her hunger for silverware — only to be eliminated from the Champions League in the qualifying stages and find herself on the bench for the team’s first home game of the league season (the first of three times she has not started a league game so far). PSG conceded five goals across the two legs against Juventus as they crashed out of Europe.

Earps has made clear that adjusting to life in a new country requires time, sharing on social media challenges as light-hearted as being confused by purple cauliflower and no driving lanes near the Arc de Triomphe, to more serious concerns such as sorting new accommodation and not speaking the native language.

A video posted to social media, accompanied with the caption “My head is frazzled”, spoke to this mental tension. For an occupation known for being as cerebral as it is physically instinctive, such descriptions are concerning.

Earps’ fortunes have improved in recent weeks. She kept her first clean sheet for her new club in a 1-0 win over Nantes, then produced a spectacular save in the 2-1 victory against Fleury. If Earps required a slow start to catch fire, very few will begrudge her that.

But maintaining that momentum is crucial if she is to challenge Hampton for the No 1 shirt at next summer’s Euros.

This article originally appeared in The Athletic.

England, UK Women's Football, Women's Euros

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