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Jared Goff is the NFL's best (?) quarterback, Aaron Rodgers isn't top 20 and Week 12 QB ranks
Lamar Jackson hates playing the Pittsburgh Steelers. This is not a reflection of the intensity of the rivalry between Baltimore and western Pennsylvania. It's a nod to the fact the Steelers have bottled him up better than any other team in the league.
Sunday's 18-16 loss at not-Heinz Field ceded control of the AFC North to Pittsburgh and ceded ground in the 2024 NFL MVP race to a host of hungry quarterbacks. Josh Allen, fresh off a superhuman touchdown run to put away the Kansas City Chiefs, leads the pack nipping at Jackson's heels. But several more strong passers lie in wait, hoping not only to push their teams into the postseason but pile up accolades in the process.
Which quarterback has been the best through Week 11? Fortunately, we’ve got some advanced stats to help figure that out.
Expected points added is a concept that’s been around since 1970. It’s effectively a comparison between what an average quarterback could be expected to do on a certain down and what he actually did — and how it increased his team’s chances of scoring. The model we use comes from The Athletic’s Ben Baldwin and his RBSDM.com website, which is both wildly useful AND includes adjusted EPA, which accounts for defensive strength. It considers the impact of penalties and does not negatively impact passers for fumbles after a completion.
The other piece of the puzzle is completion percentage over expected (CPOE), which is pretty much what it sounds like. It’s a comparison of all the completions a quarterback would be expected to make versus the ones he actually did. Like EPA, it can veer into the negatives and higher is better. So if you chart all 35 primary quarterbacks — the ones who played at least 176 snaps through 11 weeks — you get a chart that looks like this:
Anthony Richardson dug a huge hole to start the season, but he's begun to climb from it after last week's win over the New York Jets. If you split up the rest of the league’s starters into tiers, it looks something like this:
Let’s see how this week’s rankings shook out.
1. A suddenly dense MVP tier
1. Jared Goff, Detroit Lions: 0.186 EPA+CPOE composite
2. Lamar Jackson, Baltimore Ravens: 0.179
3. Tua Tagovailoa, Miami Dolphins: 0.165
4. Joe Burrow, Cincinnati Bengals: 0.159
5. Josh Allen, Buffalo Bills: 0.157
Goff jumped from seventh to first, owing to a thorough shredding of the hapless Jacksonville Jaguars and Jackson's struggles vs. the Pittsburgh Steelers. Tagovailoa had an even bigger jump, breaking into the top three from 13th place.
Are either legit contenders in the MVP race? Probably not. Goff is thriving but prone to brain fart games. His life is made easier by a run game second only to the Philadelphia Eagles in rush efficiency. Tagovailoa's value to the Dolphins is clear -- his passer rating is nearly 30 points better than his backups -- but he missed several games for a 4-6 team. You can put Burrow in that boat as well, seeing his Cincinnati's inability to win close contests has it mired at 4-7.
Thus, we get an MVP race that, nearly halfway to Super Bowl 59, looks like a two-man battle between reigning winner Jackson and Allen. Two mobile quarterbacks with two teams bound for the postseason. Hell yeah.
2. A peloton of very good quarterbacks
6. Jayden Daniels, Washington Commanders: 0.152 EPA+CPOE composite
7. Jalen Hurts, Philadelphia Eagles: 0.149
8. Derek Carr, New Orleans Saints: 0.147
9. Brock Purdy, San Francisco 49ers: 0.141
10. Kyler Murray, Arizona Cardinals: 0.139
11. Sam Darnold, Minnesota Vikings: 0.135
12. Patrick Mahomes, Kansas City Chiefs: 0.132
Hurts continues to play well, though not as well as the defense behind him -- the Eagles have the league's stingiest group following their Week 5 bye to go with that NFL-best rush offense. Daniels has regressed from phenomenal to merely good the last two weeks, which is totally reasonable for a rookie quarterback.
Murray has led Arizona from another rebuilding year to the top of the NFC West. We'll see if his defense holds up long enough to push him to a division title, but his comeback from 2022's torn ACL remains impressive. Darnold is a high stakes gambler but Vikings coach Kevin O'Connell has leaned into that with solid returns. Mahomes is seemingly biding his time, waiting for the moment he's underestimated to dole out punishment this postseason.
3. Still pretty good
13. Baker Mayfield, Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 0.117 EPA+CPOE composite
14. Kirk Cousins, Atlanta Falcons: 0.112
15. Jordan Love, Green Bay Packers: 0.105
16. Geno Smith, Seattle Seahawks: 0.100
17. Justin Fields, Pittsburgh Steelers: 0.100
18. Justin Herbert, Los Angeles Chargers: 0.088
Herbert remains the biggest outlier in these rankings -- a player significantly better and more impactful than his advanced stats suggest. He's elevated an understaffed wideout corps (his 11.2 percent bad throw rate is a top-five mark), survived a shaky offensive line that's allowed a bottom-10 pressure rate and occasionally absolutely devastated defenses with his legs. Los Angeles has holes throughout its roster, but has an A-tier quarterback and head coach and, welp, turns out they're a playoff team again.
Cousins is coming off back-to-back games where he failed to throw a touchdown pass, which isn't enough to raise concerns but does feel endemic to his career of high hopes and unmet expectations. Fields boosted his composite by running the ball twice in Pittsburgh's win over Baltimore, even if that meant sliding too early and nearly blowing an opportunity to ice the game. Love averaged more than 15 yards per pass attempt in Week 11, which helped smooth over the fact he took points off the board with a tremendously stupid interception in a near-loss to the Bears.
4. There's room for improvement.
19. Drake Maye, New England Patriots: 0.078 EPA+CPOE composite
20. Matthew Stafford, Los Angeles Rams: 0.075
21. Joe Flacco, Indianapolis Colts: 0.074
22. Trevor Lawrence, Jacksonville Jaguars: 0.069
23. Aaron Rodgers, New York Jets: 0.059
24. Bo Nix, Denver Broncos: 0.059
25. Daniel Jones, New York Giants: 0.053
26. C.J. Stroud, Houston Texans: 0.052
27. Dak Prescott, Dallas Cowboys: 0.050
Maye and Nix are both providing signs of life for their teams despite limited receiving capabilities. Nix in particular looked great shredding the Falcons and their non-existent pass rush in Week 11 en route to a career-best four touchdowns. Maye hasn't scraped that kind of success, but there's no doubt he brings more to the table than Jacoby Brissett, Mac Jones or, sigh, Bailey Zappe did before him.
The fact Stroud is behind both those guys, as well as the quarterback who just got demoted to the Giants' third-string position, is concerning. He looked better in Week 11's rout of the Cowboys, but that barely counts. Offensive coordinator Bobby Slowik is watching head coach offers fade away each week he fails to recapture Houston's 2023 innovation.
5. Not good
28. Gardner Minshew II, Las Vegas Raiders: 0.044 EPA+CPOE composite
29. Will Levis, Tennessee Titans: 0.041
30. Caleb Williams, Chicago Bears: 0.032
31. Andy Dalton, Carolina Panthers: 0.028
32. Deshaun Watson, Cleveland Browns: 0.014
33. Jacoby Brissett, New England Patriots: 0.010
34. Bryce Young, Carolina Panthers: 0.008
This is a rough place for Williams to land, but his improvement in Week 11 is worth noting. With interim offensive coordinator Thomas Brown calling plays, the first overall pick was decisive with quick throws and eager to use his legs to keep the chains moving. That's a massive development for a franchise facing very real concerns it broke another young QB.
6. He's getting better!
35. Anthony Richardson, Indianapolis Colts: -0.018 EPA+CPOE composite
A mid-season benching gave way to Richardson's best game as a pro. He out-dueled Aaron Rodgers in the second game of his career where he threw more than 12 passes and completed more than half of them. That's a grim statement but, hey, progress!
This article originally appeared on For The Win: Jared Goff is the NFL's best (?) quarterback, Aaron Rodgers isn't top 20 and Week 12 QB ranks
