Joshua and Wilder are vulnerable but Saudi Arabia’s grip on boxing is strong

Saudi Arabia’s grip on heavyweight boxing will strengthen in Riyadh on Saturday night when Anthony Joshua and Deontay Wilder feature on a bill which promises to clear the way for the two former world champions to fight each other in the same city in March. There have been numerous reports suggesting Joshua and Wilder have already signed contracts for their showdown next year but both men, for all their shuddering power, remain vulnerable and they each face a tricky opponent this weekend.

Joshua, who seems to have lost much of the explosive spark and good cheer which once made him the wealthiest and most popular heavyweight on the planet, has looked pedestrian in his two fights this year. He defeated mediocre opposition in Jermaine Franklin and Robert Helenius as he made his comeback from successive world title losses to Oleksandr Usyk, and he now faces a southpaw in Otto Wallin.

Related: Anthony Joshua says losing to Otto Wallin would be career-ending

Joshua struggled against the outstanding Usyk, another southpaw, and Wallin has only lost one fight so far – when Tyson Fury was in danger of being pulled out of their bout after he suffered cuts which later required 47 stitches to repair. Wallin, a 33-year-old Swede, is a solid and determined opponent who, even more importantly, seems to believe he can defeat Joshua.

A more detached perspective would expect Joshua to have too much experience and firepower. That percussive punching finally re-emerged in August when, after a cagey six rounds, Joshua finally let his hands go and knocked out Helenius in the seventh.

Yet there has been a tentativeness about Joshua’s work in recent years which reinforces the argument that he has never really been the same fighter since he walked through fire to defeat Wladimir Klitschko in 2017. After losing for the first time to Usyk, Joshua left his long-term trainer, Rob McCracken, who had guided him to Olympic gold at London 2012, and joined Robert Garcia – who could not prevent Joshua losing again to the Ukrainian. He then moved to Dallas to work with Derrick James this year. But he has switched camps once more and prepared for Wallin with Ben Davison, who used to train Fury, in his corner.

Wallin and Wilder have both picked up on Joshua’s uncertain mood – for the British fighter did not sound inspiring as he began Thursday’s press conference. “I’m looking to do a good job. What more can I say?” Joshua sighed with the air of a man who has endured far too many press conferences in the 10 years and two months since he made his professional debut. “I’m here to fight, I’m not here to party and get caught up in the glitz and glamour. Of course I’m tense because I want to perform. I want to win.”

Wallin spoke as much about Joshua’s state of mind as his own attributes. “I’m a tricky southpaw, I’m a good fighter. Also, he’s got a new trainer, so that can be tricky. He used to be a happy guy but from what I see now he seems very stiff and tense. Maybe he’s fed up of all of this stuff.”

Wilder also responded to questions about Joshua. “I had a lot of media asking me about his behaviour. I said y’all putting a lot of pressure on him. He’s got to focus on Otto Wallin, because Wallin’s 100% focused on him. I don’t know where Joshua’s mind is, I don’t know what he’s thinking about. Maybe it’s all a facade, maybe he’s ready. Maybe he’s calm, maybe he’ll prove people wrong. But I would tell him don’t worry about the talks [for Wilder v Joshua].”

Wilder needs to heed his own advice. He took Fury to hell and back, knocking the WBC world champion down twice before Wilder himself was bludgeoned to violent defeat in the 11th round of their third fight in October 2021. After they fought each to a draw in 2018, Fury won their second fight with another stoppage early in 2020. Wilder may still be the most destructive puncher in boxing but that savage trilogy will have taken chunks out of him. He has fought only one round in the 26 months since he was stopped for a second time by Fury. In October 2022 he knocked out Helenius with typically chilling power in less than three minutes.

The American brushed aside concerns that he might suffer from ring rust against Joseph Parker who has already fought and won three times this year – with his most recent bout being two months ago when he was impressive in beating Simon Kean inside three rounds in Riyadh. Parker is also a close friend and training partner of Fury – and he is trained by Andy Lee who was instrumental in planning Fury’s defeat of Wilder in 2020.

“I don’t really gain ring rust,” Wilder said. “Although my body is not in the ring, my mind has never left. I’m ready to go.”

Wilder hits so hard that 42 of his 43 victories have ended in a brutal stoppage. “It’s always music to my ears because none of these guys’ power matches mine,” Wilder said. “Numbers don’t lie and numbers tell the truth. If he wants to have a shootout it’ll be an even earlier night than expected. Nowadays, my name is Dr Sleep so I hope he brings a pillow and a blanket as it gets a little chilly at night.”

Joshua and Wilder should both win, even if logic does not always prevail in heavyweight boxing, and set up their March shootout. Whatever the outcome, Saudi control of the division will be unaffected because they will also stage the biggest fight of next year when Fury and Usyk meet in February to decide who will become the first undisputed world heavyweight champion since 1999.

Boxing’s refusal to consider Saudi Arabia’s woeful record in regard to human rights is in danger of being forgotten as all these elite heavyweights rake in the money – while facing demons of their own in the ring.