Kai Kara-France vs. Steve Erceg prediction, pick: UFC 305 co-main could be decided by one key factor

MMA Junkie analyst Dan Tom goes in-depth to break down the biggest fights in the UFC. Today, he takes a closer look at the UFC 305 co-main event between former flyweight title challengers [autotag]Kai Kara-France[/autotag] and [autotag]Steve Erceg[/autotag].

Kai Kara-France UFC 305 preview

Staple info:

• Record: 24-11 MMA, 7-4 UFC

• Height: 5'4" Age: 31 Weight: 125 lbs. Reach: 69"

• Last fight: Decision loss to Amir Albazi(June 3, 2023)

• Camp: City Kickboxing (New Zealand)

• Stance/striking style: Orthodox/kickboxing

• Risk management: Good

Supplemental info:

+ Regional MMA accolades

+ Brazilian jiu-jitsu blue belt

+ Junior New Zealand kickboxing title

+ Regional wrestling experience (NZ)

+ 11 KO victories

+ 3 submission wins

+ 12 first-round finishes

+ KO power

+ Solid feints and footwork

+ Accurate shot selection

^ Works well off of a variating jab

+ Dangerous right hand

^ Coming forward or off the counter

+ Good wrestling and scrambling ability

^ Defensively and offensively

+ Excellent ground-and-pound

Steve Erceg UFC 305 preview

Staple info:

• Record: 12-2 MMA, 3-1 UFC

• Height: 5'8" Age: 29 Weight: 125 lbs. Reach: 68"

• Last fight: Decision loss to Alexandre Pantoja (May 4, 2024)

• Camp: Wilkes Martial Arts (Australia)

• Stance/striking style: Orthodox/muay Thai

• Risk management: Good

Supplemental info:

+ Regional MMA titles

+ Jiu-jitsu black belt

+ National wrestling gold medal (Aus.)

+ Muay Thai state title

+ 2 KO victories

+ 6 submission wins

+ 5 first-round finishes

+ Consistent pace and pressure

+ Educated lead hand

^ Jabs, hooks, timing change-ups

+ Well-rounded striking arsenal

+ Strong inside the clinch

^ Sneaky elbows off frames

+ Solid wrestling and scrambling ability

+ Good from front-headlock

^ Dangerous submission in transition

Kai Kara-France vs. Steve Erceg point of interest: The cost of counters

The co-main event for UFC 305 features a flyweight showdown between two fighters who are familiar with the cost of counters.

A well-rounded martial artist who is clearly comfortable on the feet, Erceg poses threats in multiple phases.

A large flyweight who isn’t afraid to fight to his frame, Erceg does a decent job of staying long with a solid jab and active kicking game.

Whether Erceg is looking to punish opponents down low with leg kicks or craftily come up high with question mark kicks, the 29-year-old challenger demonstrates excellent control of his lower extremities.

When it comes to his boxing game, Erceg shows an educated left hand that can offer change-ups in both his shot selection and timing. Inside the clinch, Erceg offers the knees you’d expect from a fighter with his height and is also good about sneaking in elbows that he likes to fold over frames.

Although Erceg appears to do some of his best work when countering and sharpshooting from range, he's not beyond being caught upright off the counter himself in exchanges.

Enter Kara-France.

Initially starting his martial arts journey in the world of jiu-jitsu, Kara-France has steadily molded himself into a savvy striker.

The New Zealand native always possessed his vaunted speed and power, but we’ve really seen Kara-France refine his game under the care of Eugene Bareman and the City Kickboxing crew.

Now, utilizing much more educated footwork and fakes, it is not uncommon to see Kara-France either feint his opposition’s guard out of place when coming forward or walking them into kill shots when going backward. The 31-year-old talent also does a fantastic job of variating his jabs, smartly switching up his speeds and targets in order to set up hard right hands.

However, I’ll be curious to see if Kara-France shelves some of his leg kicks given the potential counters and takedowns coming his way.

Kai Kara-France vs. Steve Erceg breakdown: Potential grappling threats

Considering the potential for chaos on the feet, no one should be shocked if these two end up tangling on the floor.

Erceg, akin to Alexander Volkanovski, is also a national wrestling gold medalist in Australia, is not beyond switching gears and going for takedowns.

From double legs along the fence to reactive shots in the open, Erceg appears to be a well-versed wrestler from multiple spots. And when opponents attempt to shoot in on Erceg, the Australian standout shows a strong front-headlock that he’s able to parlay into positive positions and potential chokes.

That said, dictating wrestling terms with Kara-France has become an increasingly difficult proposition during the latter stages of his UFC tenure.

Although Kara-France doesn’t come from a part of the world that is known for its wrestling, the New Zealander keeps some solid wrestling skills in his back pocket.

Offensively, Kara-France has a quick level-changing double that he can go to if he needs to ground his opponent. The 14-year pro isn’t completely impervious from a defensive standpoint, but his scrambling more than makes up the difference for any perceived shortcomings.

In fact, one could argue that Kara-France, at this point in his career, does much better against fighters who are trying to grapple him.

For that reason, I’ll be curious to see how much effort Erceg makes in regard to grappling – particularly after his last outing opposite Alexandre Pantoja where his aggression in that department arguably cost him the fight.

Kai Kara-France vs. Steve Erceg odds

The oddsmakers and the public are favoring the Australian, listing Erceg -160 and Kara-France +130 via FanDuel.

Kai Kara-France vs. Steve Erceg prediction, pick

Although I don't disagree with who is favored, I caution anyone completely discounting Kara-France in this spot.

Aside from the fact that this has the feels of a classic title-challenger letdown spot for Erceg (i.e. Dan Hardy losing at home to Carlos Condit post his title effort opposite Georges St-Pierre), Kara-France is a battle-tested product who could be primed to remind the masses about his skills and experience.

Furthermore, Kara-France has only lost to top competition in the UFC and arguably beat Amir Albazi his last time out. Add in the fact that Kara-France's patent right hand will carry extra potency on Erceg from a stylistic perspective, and no one should be shocked if the New Zealander finds himself on the right side of another stoppage by strikes.

But for as tempted as I am to officially side with that outcome, I can't help but see just as many – if not more – stylistic pitfalls on the other side of this equation.

Size differential aside, I suspect that Erceg's lead hand will be particularly effective in this fight given Kara-France's propensity to eat left-sided strikes (which is likely due to the natural dipping of his style to said side).

For this reason, I specifically picked fighters with strong left-sided presences like Brandon Royval or Brandon Moreno to punish this habit of Kara-France's. Not only does Erceg possess a decent arsenal from that side, but the former title challenger is also good about mixing in bodywork and uppercuts – which should also be extremely effective given Kara-France's style and stature.

Couple that with Erceg's killer instincts from the front-headlock position, and I smell a club-and-sub for the Aussie in Round 2.

Kai Kara-France vs. Steve Erceg start time, where to watch

As the co-main event, Kara-France and Erceg are expected to make their walks to the octagon at approximately midnight ET. The fight streams live on ESPN+ pay-per-view.

For more on the card, visit MMA Junkie’s event hub for UFC 305.

This article originally appeared on MMA Junkie: Kai Kara-France vs. Steve Erceg prediction, pick: UFC 305 co-main could be decided by one key factor