Lionel Messi, Inter Miami flop out of MLS playoffs, stunned by Atlanta

Lionel Messi’s first MLS playoffs began with momentum and mammoth expectations. They ended Saturday with a stunning upset and a GOAT’s whimper.

Messi and Inter Miami, the history-making top seed, crashed out in the first round with a second consecutive loss to Atlanta United — who barely snuck into the playoffs with a losing record and negative goal differential.

Messi, who’d been silent in a Game 2 loss, got his first playoff goal to level this decisive Game 3 at 2-2. But Atlanta responded; Bartosz Slisz snatched the lead back with a 76th-minute header; and the visitors sent shockwaves through American soccer with a 3-2 upset.

Miami entered these playoffs as the clearest favorite in MLS history. They waltzed to a victory in Game 1 of a three-game series, and seemed certain to advance. All they had to do was win one of two against an Atlanta team that had triumphed in less than a third of its regular-season matches — only 10 of 34.

But then, in Game 2, the Herons coughed up a lead in Atlanta.

Their 2-1 loss set up a “do-or-die” Game 3, Messi’s first in MLS.

Or, at least, that’s how English speakers described it. In Spanish, there’s a similar but different phrase. “Es un partido de matar o morir,” Inter Miami midfielder Federico Redondo said this week. Not “do-or-die,” but rather “kill-or-be-killed.”

And, in a staggering Saturday twist, it was Atlanta who did the killing.

The No. 9 seed, who won a play-in game on penalties, weathered an early Miami storm at Chase Stadium. Then, immediately after an early Matías Rojas goal, Atlanta’s Jamal Thiaré punished some lax Inter defending. He scored twice in three minutes, and the underdogs carried a 2-1 lead into halftime.

In the second half, Messi rose to meet the moment — temporarily.

But Atlanta answered.

And at the other end of the field, goalkeeper Brad Guzan, at age 40, made some heroic saves. He clawed away a close-range Jordi Alba header. He frustrated Luis Suarez and Messi. He made seven stops in total. He was, without a doubt, the man of the match and of the series.

Messi and friends were constant threats, but not the inexorable force they'd been at times in the GOAT's first full MLS season. Suarez dove in search of a penalty but got no call. Messi smashed two free kicks into Atlanta walls. His shoulders seemed to slump in frustration.

At the final whistle, with a blank stare, he trudged down a tunnel.

Guzan and defenders chest-bumped in celebration.

And Miami’s title hopes died.

Their loss opens up an already-gaping Eastern Conference, which said goodbye to the No. 2 seed Columbus Crew last weekend and the No. 3 seed FC Cincinnati earlier Saturday.

It's also a massive loss for MLS, whose playoffs lose significant luster, and whose leaders have utterly failed thus far to capitalize on Messi's presence.

It doesn’t invalidate Miami's 74 points, the best regular season in league history. “We celebrated the achievement, because it was something difficult and important,” Messi said in a recent interview.

“But,” he acknowledged, “we are aware that the real title we want is the MLS [Cup].”

Now, he might have only one more year to chase it.

What went wrong for Messi and Inter Miami?

In many ways, Messi and Miami were victims of soccer's randomness. They created more chances and better chances in all three games. By one estimate, they accumulated 7.9 Expected Goals (xG) to Atlanta's 3.84 throughout the series. And if you double up an opponent's xG — especially if you employ two of greatest goal-scorers ever — more often than not, you are going to win. In fact, with Messi on the field, Miami didn't lose a single game like this throughout the regular season.

They lost Saturday largely because they ran into a bald brick wall — Guzan.

“Their goalkeeper was spectacular. That was the difference in the series. He saved everything and more. We did a lot of good things, but also many things very poorly."

This was not about managerial malpractice. It was not an epic Messi choke. It was, mostly, a fluke.

At the same time, though, the Herons were haunted by a shortcoming that plagued them all season. They never found a solid center back pairing. And they never had the legs or the front-six structure to shield their leaky defense. So, again and again, they shipped goals.

On Saturday, they were particularly vulnerable without Sergio Busquets, who hadn't fully recovered from either a sickness or a minor injury. (After missing Game 2, he ultimately played 12-plus minutes in Game 3 off the bench.) They also suffered without Yannick Bright, a 23-year-old midfielder who'd established himself alongside Busquets, but who missed Game 3 due to injury.

But they made individual mistakes that had little to do with structure. Take, for example, the second goal, which began at the feet of Miami defender David Martinez. He played a late, loose forward pass, which was cut out around midfield. Then he didn't recover, and Atlanta exploited the very space he should've been covering.

This type of lapse was a feature of Miami's season. Openness was a function of building an attacking superteam around Messi. Although they won a record number of points, they were actually the fourth-worst defensive team in the Eastern Conference, per FBref xG tallies.

In the regular season, goalkeeper Drake Callender often rescued them.

Or, even more often, their porousness didn't matter because they had Suarez and Messi.

On Saturday, neither of those statements came true. And the most expensive, most popular team in MLS history is done.