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Mystery solved? Odds change again, Jayden Daniels huge favorite to go No. 2 overall
The NFL Draft world seems to be back on its axis, at least as it pertains to the second overall pick.
There was some drama late last week in the betting world. The odds for LSU quarterback Jayden Daniels going No. 2 overall to the Washington Commanders had a sudden and dramatic change. His odds at BetMGM went from -400 — betting $400 to win $100, and 80% implied odds of happening — to -125. North Carolina quarterback Drake Maye moved the other way, from +220 to +100.
It looked like maybe the betting market had tipped off another pick, which has happened more than a few times the past couple years. But on Tuesday the market changed again. Daniels is back to being a huge favorite to go No. 2 overall.
That follows the reporting of Yahoo Sports' Charles Robinson, who wrote on Tuesday that barring last-minute input from Commanders owner Josh Harris, "there is a solid belief across the league that Daniels has come into hard focus at No. 2 overall." The betting market reflected that.
Odds favor Jayden Daniels at No. 2 again
The odds had been rebounding back toward Daniels. On Monday, Daniels was -175 to go with the second pick, and Maye was +155. By Tuesday the gap was far bigger.
At BetMGM on Tuesday, Daniels moved to -450 and Maye was +350 for the second overall pick. Betting odds don't always accurately predict what will happen, but that does seem to indicate that whatever caused the betting market to take Maye late last week has corrected.
In conjunction with that move on Tuesday, Maye's odds to go third overall changed to -300. Those odds were -160 on Monday. The New England Patriots currently have the No. 3 selection, though they could trade the pick. But regardless of the team, Maye is a big favorite to go in that spot.
Adjust your mock drafts accordingly.
Commanders seem to prefer Daniels
There was a kerfuffle between the Commanders and Daniels' agent last week, after the team made the unusual move of bringing in four quarterback prospects for a visit on the same day. Those issues seem to not be a hindrance to Daniels going second overall. According to Robinson, he came out of Washington's process as the best of the quarterback prospects after consensus No. 1 overall pick Caleb Williams.
"As time has dragged on, Daniels surfaced as the most toolsy and refined player among the “next three,” with a far more consistent end to his college career than Maye, and a far larger bank of film showing what he has done versus the projection of what [J.J.] McCarthy might be able to do," Robinson wrote.
The NFL Draft can be unpredictable, and last-minute changes aren't unheard of. But the odds are clearly favoring Williams, Daniels and Maye going in the top three, in that order.
Then maybe we'll see if there's any drama with the fourth pick.
