The Saturday slate was small, but we have plenty of games on Sunday with nine games and five making up the main slate. We're going to draw our attention to the five kicking off at 6 p.m. EST because that's where the big prize pools are at. There's a good mixture of studs and value plays, so let's get started with our favorite superstar on this slate...
Ja Morant, MEM at NYK ($44)
Morant is one of the feistiest players in the NBA, and you know he'll be at full tilt at Madison Square Garden. He's faced the Knicks three times since the start of last season, averaging 51 Yahoo points per game. That's no surprise since New York is surrendering the fifth-most fantasy points to opposing PGs. Those pristine performances are less surprising when peeking at Ja's recent form with at least 41 Y! points in eight straight. Morant is also maintaining a 50-point average during that span and should continue to produce major stats as long as Desmond Bane (toe) is sidelined.
Jaylen Brown/Marcus Smart, BOS vs. WAS ($36/$20)
With Jayson Tatum (ankle) ruled out, these two Celtics are impossible to avoid. Brown is the best play on the board having posted a 37 percent usage rate with JT off the floor this season. He's played five times without Tatum over the last two years while scoring at least 42 Yahoo points in all of them en route to an average of 53. Brown has also clobbered the Wizards with a 46-point average over their four meetings since the start of last year. Smart has been just as solid without Tatum racking up at least 36 Y! points in the four games JT was sidelined last year. He's also got a 44-point average in those circumstances, and we absolutely love these two with the boost in minutes, shot attempts and usage.
Shake Milton, PHI at ORL ($24)
Milton represents the best value play on the slate. He's been inserted into the starting lineup with James Harden (foot) and Tyrese Maxey (foot) going down and has produced some of the best averages of his career. Shake has scored at least 31 Yahoo points in all four starts since those injuries while averaging 40 Yahoo points across 39 minutes a night. That role and production are more indicative of a $35 player, and it should continue with so much usage sitting on the sidelines. Milton's best game of the season came a few nights ago against this Orlando defense when he collected 24 points, nine rebounds and 10 assists en route to 52 Yahoo points.
Guard to Avoid
Jevon Carter, MIL vs. DAL ($14)
Carter carries an inflated salary because of the best stretch of his career a couple of weeks ago. He took over this offense when Giannis Antetokounmpo and Jrue Holiday were out, but he's on the backburner now. In fact, JC is only logging 25 minutes a night over his last four while scoring 18 or fewer Y! points in three of those. It's no surprise when looking at his minuscule usage, and that becomes horrifying with Dallas surrendering the fewest points in the NBA.
Jaren Jackson Jr, MEM at NYK ($31)
JJJ would have gone off the charts on Friday if that game had stayed close. The big man recorded 33 Yahoo points across 22 minutes, establishing himself as one of the league's best per-minute producers. That gives Jackson a 45-point average across 25 minutes a night across his last three games. That's amazing since he's been slightly limited in his return from injury, but we expect him to get closer to 30-35 minutes as the season progresses. JJJ also did great in his one matchup at MSG last season by dropping 46 Y! points.
Evan Mobley, CLE at DET ($28)
Jarrett Allen (hip) went down in Friday's defeat, which could force Mobley into some center minutes. The 2021 Rookie of the Year runner-up started heating up when Allen got injured a few weeks ago by averaging 37 Y! points over his last eight games. We love that since Mobley's expected to see a boost in rebounding, minutes, and shot attempts in the absence of Allen, but we haven't even discussed the most impactful variable and that's the matchup with Detroit's disastrous defense ranked 28th in points allowed and 29th in defensive efficiency. In five career matchups with Detroit, Mobley has scored at least 30 fantasy points in all of them while dropping 35 or more in four.
Forward to Avoid
Kyle Kuzma, WAS at BOS ($29)
This is incredibly risky with how good Kuzma has been. What we need to consider is that his recent resurgence is mainly because Bradley Beal was sidelined. Beal has only played four games since Nov. 6, which directly correlates with Kuzma's hot stretch. Kuzma never cracked 33 Yahoo points in the nine games before that with only a 26-point average. Beal and Kristaps Porzingis swallow up too much usage for Kuzma to continue to play at this $30 level, and it's inflated his value to the highest point of his career. A matchup against Boston's Top-5 defense is terrifying with Kuzma scoring just 22 Y! points on 3-of-13 shooting in their one matchup three weeks ago. There's also massive blowout potential in this lopsided matchup, making him even riskier.
Al Horford, BOS vs. WAS ($18)
Horford is far from exciting, but he should never be this undervalued. The big man has scored at least 26 Y! points in 10 of his last 11 games while posting a 33-point average. That's the stud we saw at the end of last season, with Big Al flirting with a 40-point average when Robert Williams (knee) was out. He walloped the Wizards producing at least 34 Yahoo points in three of their four matchups last year. Horford likely won't carry your lineup, but he's one of the safest bets for 30-plus fantasy points from a sub-$20 player, especially with Tatum out.
Montrezl Harrell, PHI at ORL ($10)
Harrell is dangerous, but he's a great GPP option if Joel Embiid (foot) has to sit again. The big man has started the last three games for Embiid while seeing his minutes rise in each. If you look at the three Harrell has played at least 18 minutes this year, he's averaging 25 Yahoo points per game. That's far from shocking when you see Trez averaged 29 Y! per game in the 47 he logged over 20 minutes last year. He's a per-minute stud, and we have to believe he's looking at 25-30 here against the tallest team in the NBA. Orlando is not only an outstanding matchup for that reason, but they also rank 21st in defensive efficiency.
Center to Avoid
Mitchell Robinson, NYK vs. MEM ($14)
Robinson is one of the league's most talented centers, but he never gets enough minutes to produce. Whether it's foul trouble, coming off of an injury, or other big men in this rotation, Mitch-Rob never receives the court time he needs to be fantasy-relevant. The big man has only surpassed 23 minutes in two games all season with just 18 minutes a night since his return. He's also averaging only 15 Yahoo points since his most recent injury, and he's impossible to trust until we see he's back to a full-time role.