Week 9 of the NFL is presenting a limitation on teaser-leg options. However, there’s only one true Wong-teaser combination that has my attention.
As a reminder, here are some general guidelines to follow if you are wagering on NFL teasers to keep risk in check.
Stick to six-point teasers (you need to win more consistently to offset the higher price).
Keep it to a two-team teaser (the more pieces you add, the greater the risk).
Target lower-totaled games (the more points expected, the more variance involved).
Tease through the key numbers of three and seven (this approach is at the heart of all proven winning strategies).
Jaguars +7.5 vs Raiders, 47.5
Seahawks +8 at Cardinals, 49.5
Saints +8.5 vs Ravens, 47.5
Bengals -1.5 vs Panthers, 42.5
Teaser legs to avoid
The Bengals look like an ‘obvious’ play but do you really want to back Cincinnati without its star receiver in Ja’Marr Chase? In the Bengals' first game without Chase last week against the Cleveland Browns, Joe Burrow and company were only able to put up 13 points. Though Burrow still does have playmaker receivers in Tee Higgins and Tyler Boyd, the Burrow and Chase connection is what makes this offense hum. Without proof of concept that Cincinnati knows how to run its offense without Chase in the lineup, the Bengals are a no-go for now.
The Seahawks with Pete Carroll and QB Geno Smith have been a great story, making waves and troubling defenses without Russell Wilson. However, the injuries are starting to pile up. On the injury list are WRs Marquise Goodwin, Tyler Lockett and DK Metcalf, plus TE Noah Fant. On defense, SS Ryan Neal was limited early in the week. Cardinals QB Kyler Murray is healthy, as is WR DeAndre Hopkins. The stark contrast in possible injuries is enough to keep me off Seattle.
Week 9 teaser to bet: Jaguars +7.5 and Saints +8.5
Derek Carr and the Raiders offense were shut out in New Orleans last week. The Saints do have a good defense but Carr, who has RB Josh Jacobs and WR Davante Adams, had just one red-zone trip. One. Carr has produced just four touchdowns in the last four games. Something is not clicking with this offense. Although the Jaguars have been less than stellar, they've faced a tough slate of opponents. Jacksonville has losses to a Broncos defense, a Brian Daboll-coached Giants team, a Colts defense and arguably the best team in the NFL in the Eagles. There are worse things than backing the Jags as a home underdog against a Las Vegas defense that is last in the league for sacks plus turnovers.
The Saints are the second-best fourth quarter team in the league, averaging 9.6 points per game, 14.8 on the road. The Ravens are last in the NFL for opponent fourth-quarter scoring. Give me a backdoor cover for a home dog facing a Baltimore team that has given up two double-digit leads resulting in outright losses.