NFL betting, odds: Let's tease the Steelers in a prime-time matchup

Last week offered an entire buffet of teaser-leg options. Week 17 is a bit more limited but still offers some opportunity for a two-leg, 6-point teaser.

As a reminder, here are some general guidelines to follow if you are wagering on NFL teasers to keep risk in check.

  • Stick to six-point teasers (you need to win more consistently to offset the higher price).

  • Keep it to a two-team teaser (the more pieces you add, the greater the risk).

  • Target lower-totaled games (the more points expected, the more variance involved).

  • Tease through the key numbers of three and seven (this approach is at the heart of all proven winning strategies).

Current Week 17 teaser-leg options

Browns +8 at Commanders, 40

Seahawks +7.5 vs. Jets, 42.5

Steelers +8.5 at Ravens, 35

Week 17 unconventional options

Dolphins +9 at Patriots, 41

I consider the Dolphins unconventional because getting a spread at +3 or better is long term more valuable as a solo wager instead of tying to a teaser because of the volatility involved with correctly selecting two winners. However, when the price of +3 is at (-115) or (-120), it's an indication that the line could move to +2.5, so the +3 and teasing up to +9 becomes more valuable.

Week 17 NFL teaser: Seahawks +7.5/Steelers +8.5

The Seahawks look down and out. Except, Geno Smith and Co. have faced a really tough stretch these last few weeks against a solid Raiders offense, a tough Rams defense, a strong rushing offense in the Panthers, and then arguably the two best teams in the NFL in the 49ers and Chiefs. During that stretch, Seattle didn’t have WR Tyler Lockett against the Chiefs, RB Kenneth Walker III against the Panthers, and DT Al Woods in the last two games.

It’s a pretty banged-up team. However, there was optimism from head coach Pete Carroll that Lockett, Woods, and even WR Marquise Goodwin will play this weekend.

The Jets' defense has been pretty solid but has allowed an average of 22 points in the last four games, giving up 86 rushing yards to the Vikings’ Dalvin Cook, getting zero sacks against Lions QB Jared Goff, and allowing 7.4 yards per pass to the Jaguars’ Trevor Lawrence. The Jets offense, with Zach Wilson or Mike White, is last in the league in points per drive since Week 10 and has only converted four red-zone possessions for touchdowns in 15 attempts, second-worst in the league. The Jets' defense has slipped, while the offense is no threat.

The Steelers against Ravens is the lowest totaled game on the board in Week 17. Plus, it’s a prime-time divisional matchup. Pittsburgh has won five of its last eight games. We get two run–first offenses with stout rushing defenses, with neither table able to put up points. Since the bye, the Ravens have scored a touchdown at the lowest rate in the league, while the Steelers are at least improving on offense and converting third downs at the second-best rate in the league after starting the season 28th. It’s a pure numbers play, with sub-par offenses in a game lined at 36.