NFL DFS Picks: Yahoo Plays and Strategy for Week 4 Sunday Baller

The Week 3 NFL main slate begins Sunday at 1 p.m. EDT and features 12 games, as the entire league will be in action except for the teams playing on Thursday Night Football (Cowboys-Giants), Sunday Night Football (Bills-Ravens) and Monday Night Football (Titans-Dolphins and Seahawks-Lions). Yahoo will be running plenty of NFL DFS contests for Week 4, but the biggest is the Sunday Baller, which pays out a guaranteed prize pool of $150,000 to the top 1,774 finishers, including $15,000 to the winner. You can submit up to 150 entries into this contest, which has a maximum total capacity of 8,800 entries but will still run if it doesn't fill, potentially providing you with enhanced odds of winning, also known as overlay.

Playing in guaranteed prize pool (GPP) contests is about chasing upside, while lineups geared towards head-to-head, 50/50 or double-up formats should prioritize high floors. The players you want to target for these different contest types aren't mutually exclusive, but winning a GPP tournament usually requires finding a hidden gem or going against the grain in a spot or two, while building a solid base of the same chalk plays you would use anywhere. Against-the-grain plays typically consist of big-name players in tough matchups or boom-or-bust types with uncertain roles.

Keep in mind that Yahoo DFS contests use 0.5 PPR scoring rather than full PPR, which lowers the comparative value of wide receivers and running backs (in that order) while especially affecting high-volume pass-catchers. Your NFL $150k Sunday Baller lineup will consist of one QB, two RBs, three WRs, one TE, one FLEX (RB/WR/TE) and one D/ST unit. Suggested Week 4 plays include a pair of top-five picks from the 2024 NFL Draft, as well as early league leaders in key statistical categories that are poised to add to their strong starts at RB and WR.

QUARTERBACK

Caleb Williams, CHI vs. LAR ($22): Williams looked like the Bryce Young to Jayden Daniels' C.J. Stroud through two games, as the first overall pick in the 2024 NFL Draft mustered only 267 passing yards without a TD through two games. Williams assuaged some of the early concerns with 363 passing yards and two TDs in Week 3 against the Colts, albeit with two interceptions in a losing effort. The yards and TDs matter much more from a fantasy perspective than wins and losses, and with Chicago's running game M.I.A., the offense is poised to run through Williams' arm again in Week 4 against a Rams secondary that allowed 558 passing yards, 100 rushing yards and a 6:0 TD:INT to Kyler Murray and Brock Purdy over the last two games. Williams is a willing and capable scrambler, so he should tack on some value with his legs, and Chicago might get Keenan Allen back from a heel injury this week to complement DJ Moore and rookie ninth overall pick Rome Odunze in one of the league's most talented WR rooms.

Honorable Mentions:

Jayden Daniels, WAS at ARI ($31); Kyler Murray, ARI vs. WAS ($31); C.J. Stroud, HOU vs. JAC ($27)

Against the Grainers:

Patrick Mahomes, KC at LAC ($27); Justin Fields, PIT at IND ($26); Andy Dalton, CAR vs. CIN ($22)

RUNNING BACK

Saquon Barkley, PHI at TB ($36): The appeal of locking in lower-priced players at positions like QB, TE and D/ST is the added cap flexibility to load up on studs at RB and WR. Barkley has been well worth paying up for since joining the Eagles, with 404 scrimmage yards and five scrimmage TDs through three games. The yardage trails only the 417 yards of Alvin Kamara, while the TD total is tied for the league lead with Kamara and Kyren Williams. Philadelphia will have little choice but to force-feed Barkley both on the ground and through the air against a Buccaneers defense that has given up six rushing TDs through three games, as the Eagles could be without WRs A.J. Brown (hamstring) and DeVonta Smith (concussion).

Zack Moss, CIN at CAR ($21): The Panthers bounced back offensively with Andy Dalton taking over under center last week, but their defense remains highly vulnerable against the run. Carolina is tied for the most rushing TDs allowed to RBs among teams playing in the Sunday Baller slate (four) and has surrendered the fourth-most rushing yards to RBs among such teams (370). Moss is well positioned to capitalize on this favorable matchup as the 0-3 Bengals look to salvage their season. The veteran RB was expected to split with youngster Chase Brown but has out-touched Brown 41-19 through three weeks, and Moss has scored a rushing TD in two of Cincinnati's first three games.

Honorable Mentions:

Breece Hall, NYJ vs. DEN ($33); Kyren Williams, LAR at CHI ($30); Brian Robinson, WAS at ARI ($27)

Against the Grainers:

Aaron Jones, MIN at GB ($28); Jordan Mason, SF vs. NE ($27); Carson Steele, KC at LAC ($13)

WIDE RECEIVER

Nico Collins, HOU vs. JAC ($30): Collins' performance last week was encouraging in a way, even though he underperformed expectations. Despite the Texans being blown out 34-7 in Minnesota, Collins still cracked double-digit fantasy points for a third consecutive week and held onto his league lead in receiving yards, which now sits at 338. A home matchup against the reeling Jaguars offers a nice opportunity for Collins to return to dominance, as Jacksonville gave up four first-half passing TDs to the Bills on Monday and has allowed the sixth-most yards to WRs overall. Stefon Diggs actually leads the Texans with 20 catches to Colins' 18, but in 0.5 PPR scoring, Collins' big-play ability over the top is preferable to Diggs' chain-moving underneath.

Marvin Harrison, ARI vs. WAS ($29): Washington's secondary has been eviscerated by No. 1 WRs, surrendering a combined 306 receiving yards and five TDs to Mike Evans, Ja'Marr Chase and Malik Nabers, who have been held to 66 or fewer yards and no TDs in five of six collective games against teams other than Washington entering Week 4. Harrison certainly has the skills to add to Washington's struggles against the pass, as the rookie fourth overall pick has 194 yards and three TDs in his last two games. Fellow Cardinals WR Michael Wilson ($15) is a nice value option, as more targets could be up for grabs if TE Trey McBride (concussion) sits out as expected. Teams haven't had to turn to plan B in the passing game against the Commanders thus far though, and Harrison is certainly plan A for Arizona.

Diontae Johnson, CAR vs. CIN ($22): Who knew competent QB play could make a difference for a WR? After two forgettable weeks with Young under center -- and two mediocre seasons catching passes from Kenny Pickett/Mitchell Trubisky/Mason Rudolph before that -- Johnson came alive in Week 3 with eight catches for 122 yards and a TD on 14 targets from Dalton. Johnson had 1,161 yards and eight TDs in 2021 while working with a 39-year-old Ben Roethlisberger, so he has a track record of success whenever his team's QB play isn't scraping the bottom of the barrel. Rashee Rice and Terry McLaurin combined for 175 yards and two TDs against Cincinnati's secondary the past two weeks, and Johnson should get plenty of targets with fellow Panthers WR Adam Thielen (hamstring) on IR. Johnson didn't practice Thursday, but that absence reportedly had more to do with the field conditions than the groin injury cited as the reason for his absence, so he should be fine come Sunday.

Honorable Mentions:

Chris Godwin, TB vs. PHI ($27); DJ Moore, CHI vs. LAR ($24); Christian Kirk, JAC at HOU ($19)

Against the Grainers:

Ja'Marr Chase, CIN at CAR ($25); Jauan Jennings, SF vs. NE ($23); Tutu Atwell, LAR at CHI ($14)

TIGHT END

Tyler Conklin, NYJ vs. DEN ($10): Given the inconsistent play we have seen from even the top performers at TE this season, this is a sensible spot to go bargain hunting. Conklin was a non-factor in Weeks 1 and 2, but he led the Jets with 93 receiving yards last week and now draws a Denver defense that gave up seven catches to Buccaneers TE Cade Otton last week. The Broncos allowed the most yards and TDs in the league to TEs last season, and Conklin could be a larger part of the game plan than usual, as No. 1 WR Garrett Wilson will see a heavy dose of standout CB Patrick Surtain. Another potential factor in Conklin's favor is that Aaron Rodgers and the favored Jets could be motivated to run up the score on Denver, in order to stick it to Broncos coach Sean Payton for his disparaging comments about the Broncos' coaching tenure of current Jets OC, and Rodgers' friend, Nathaniel Hackett.

Honorable Mentions:

Dallas Goedert, PHI at TB ($17); Cole Kmet, CHI at LAR ($14); Brenton Strange, JAC at HOU ($10)

Against the Grainers:

Travis Kelce, KC at LAC ($20); Brock Bowers, LV vs. CLE ($19); Elijah Higgins, ARI at WAS ($10)

DEFENSE

Las Vegas Raiders vs. CLE ($10): Those who went with the Raiders last week might be loath to look their way again after Vegas posted -2.0 fantasy points in an embarrassing 36-22 loss to the Panthers, but the Raiders have a nice opportunity at instant redemption with the Browns coming to town. Cleveland has yet to score more than 18 points in a game, while numerous injuries along the offensive line coupled with Deshaun Watson's continued regression under center have led to Watson being sacked 16 times through three games, including a career-worst eight last week against the Giants. To add to the Browns' misery on offense, they are an impressively bad 8-for-43 (18.6 percent) on third down this season. At the minimum $10 valuation, the potential reward outweighs the risk with this unit, even with star pass rusher Maxx Crosby (ankle) at less than 100 percent.

Honorable Mentions:

New York Jets vs. DEN ($16); Houston Texans vs. JAC ($15); San Francisco 49ers vs. NE ($13)

Against the Grainers:

Pittsburgh Steelers at IND ($18); Cincinnati Bengals at CAR ($14); Kansas City at LAC ($14)