NFL odds, betting: Is there life left in the Seahawks?

It's been a tale of two seasons for the Seattle Seahawks. Pete Carroll's team entered the year with little-to-no expectations after trading former franchise quarterback Russell Wilson to Denver. Through the first nine weeks, Geno Smith made the best of his opportunity by firmly entrenching himself as the betting favorite for NFL Comeback Player of the Year. He led Seattle to a 6-3 record and took good care of the betting public, going 6-3 ATS and covering four straight weeks from the middle of October into November. Then, everything changed when the Seahawks traveled to Germany to face the Buccaneers in Week 10.

The betting market signaled regression was inevitable when it made the Seahawks underdogs against Tampa Bay despite leading the Bucs by three games in the standings. The market was vindicated as Seattle lost 21-16 and hasn't looked the same since. The Seahawks have failed to cover in each of their last four games, losing outright in two of the previous three as favorites.

The days of Smith and the Seahawks sneaking up on teams are over, as they return to the underdog role Thursday night against the division-leading 49ers. San Francisco is on a six-game heater in which the loss of starting quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo hasn't slowed it down. So will both teams continue to streak in opposite directions, or should we expect some positive regression for the home dog?

San Francisco 49ers at Seattle Seahawks (+3.5)

Kyle Shanahan is the last coach you want to face when your defense gets run over week after week. The Seahawks have allowed an absurd average of 225 yards on the ground over the past three weeks. On the surface, we could be in for a carbon copy of the 49ers' 27-7 win in Week 2, when they rushed for 189 yards. However, some situational factors led to me betting on Seattle.

Carroll's run defense is getting some reinforcements back, with DE Shelby Harris returning to the lineup. Everybody in the building knows the Seahawks have no choice but to sell out to stop the run. That doesn't mean they will be successful, but with Deebo Samuel out and Christian McCaffrey playing through a knee injury, they have a shot to at least slow them down. The more the 49ers have to rely on rookie quarterback Brock Purdy, the better Seattle's chances of staying within the number.

Purdy looked outstanding last week against Tampa Bay, but playing on the road in a hostile environment is a learning experience for all young quarterbacks. And Lumen Field is one of the loudest stadiums in the league. In addition, a Thursday night gives Purdy less time to prepare, while he is already limited in practice due to an oblique injury. It feels like a very big ask for a quarterback in his second career start.

I can see this as a low-scoring game where both offenses are conservative and overly committed to the running game. Everything coming out of Seattle indicates it plans to dial back the aggression and turn this into a rock fight. The 3.5 points become more valuable in a slow-paced game with fewer possessions and scoring opportunities. With Kenneth Walker III returning to the lineup and a top-five passing attack, the Seahawks' offense can put up enough points to crank up the pressure on Purdy. I'm betting on Geno Smith making the big plays when it counts. I have no problem laying the additional juice at -120 to capture the 3.5, but would still play this at the key number of three as well.

One-game parlay +900

• Kenneth Walker anytime TD

• Kenneth Walker over 34.5 rushing yards

• George Kittle anytime TD

• Brandon Aiyuk 40-plus receiving yards

We split our prime-time parlay into two props for each team, so we aren't heavily invested in one particular offense to succeed. Nevertheless, Walker III should be the centerpiece of Seattle's game plan as it relentlessly tries to wear down the 49ers' defense. Carroll is an old-school coach who believes in the correlation between rushing attempts and win probability. Walker III has nine touchdowns in his last eight games and should get his number called often enough to hit these props.

On the San Francisco side, Aiyuk and Kittle should be the biggest beneficiaries of the void left by Samuel. The Seahawks' defense has struggled to cover tight ends all season, allowing the fourth-most yards and six touchdowns to the position this season.

Stats provided by Football Outsiders and Teamrankings.