NFL QB Rankings before Week 2: All hail Baker Mayfield and Sam Darnold, kings of the small sample size

For one week, at least, Baker Mayfield is the NFL's best quarterback. Standing behind him in second place is Sam Darnold.

Such is the beauty of small sample sizes. While the two former Carolina Panthers have proven they're capable of stretches of competent football -- Mayfield more than Darnold -- it's unlikely either will finish the season among the top echelon of aerial artists in 2024. But with one game in the books, no one in the league has been more efficient. Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen and Matthew Stafford? They're each looking up at the recut gems of the 2018 NFL Draft class.

While that may not last, the stellar and disgusting performances of 2024's opening weekend set the stage for the 17 weeks of action to come. It leaves us with four months to debate who is elite and who merely exists in NFL circles. And while there may be few cases where we can find consensus opinions on each passer, we’ve got advanced stats to help us build an argument.

Expected points added (EPA) is a concept that’s been around since 1970. It’s effectively a comparison between what an average quarterback could be expected to do on a certain down and what he actually did — and how it increased his team’s chances of scoring. The model we use comes from The Athletic’s Ben Baldwin and his RBSDM.com website, which is both wildly useful AND includes adjusted EPA, which accounts for defensive strength. It considers the impact of penalties and does not negatively impact passers for fumbles after a completion.

The other piece of the puzzle is completion percentage over expected (CPOE), which is pretty much what it sounds like. It’s a comparison of all the completions a quarterback would be expected to make versus the ones he actually did. Like EPA, it can veer into the negatives and higher is better. So if you chart all 32 primary quarterbacks — the ones who played at least 16 snaps in Week 1 — you get a chart that looks like this:

Try to divide that into tiers and you get a chart that looks like this:

But sort by composite score and, after one week, you get rankings that look like this:

1. BAKER MAYFIELD

1. Baker Mayfield, Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 0.341 EPA+CPOE composite

In 2022, Mayfield was so inefficient he occupied his own place on this graph beyond numbering merely known as the BAKER zone. Now that he's in his own stratosphere, even if only for one game, he deserves the title in praise rather than derogatory terms.

While 36 dropbacks against a Washington Commanders team that sold off its best defensive players for draft picks last season won't set the course for his 2024, this was still a statement performance. Offensive coordinator Dave Canales was gone, leaving Mayfield to prove he could be an above-average quarterback without his mentor. Mission accomplished, as Mayfield did what he did in 2023 and what any reasonable quarterback would do: he threw a bunch of passes to Mike Evans and Chris Godwin (14 targets, 13 catches, 144 yards and three touchdowns) and let his running backs fill in the rest.

2. Guys we knew were elite, like Sam Darnold and Derek Carr

2. Sam Darnold, Minnesota Vikings: 0.281 EPA+CPOE composite

3. Josh Allen, Buffalo Bills: 0.280

4. Derek Carr, New Orleans Saints: 0.261

5. Patrick Mahomes, Kansas City Chiefs: 0.215

6. C.J. Stroud, Houston Texans: 0.190

Darnold and Carr may have to savor this moment, since they wrecked overmatched opponents in Week 1. The degree of difficulty in beating the New York Giants and Carolina Panthers, respectively, is somewhere around "babytown frolics." Allen meanwhile, proved he can be a one-man show for a roster that's still coming together, Stroud picked up where he left off in 2023 and Mahomes thrived with a new playmaker in rookie Xavier Worthy, which suggests the rest of the AFC remains in trouble.

3. Good but concerning

7. Brock Purdy, San Francisco 49ers: 0.150 EPA+CPOE composite

8. Trevor Lawrence, Jacksonville Jaguars: 0.130

9. Kyler Murray, Arizona Cardinals: 0.122

10. Jaylen Daniels, Washington Commanders: 0.117

11. Matthew Stafford, Los Angeles Rams: 0.106

Purdy would be even higher had Brandon Aiyuk not been noticeably rusty after holding out for a massive contract extension. Lawrence and Murray each blew 14+ point leads, but fortunately this formula doesn't penalize quarterbacks for missing wide open rookies for game-changing touchdowns.

Stafford, on the other hand, deserves more credit for rising up against a swarming Detroit Lions defense despite relying on multiple backups on his offensive line and without Puka Nacua in the lineup. He was potentially a coin flip away from an overtime win in Michigan and is proof the Rams will, once again, avoid an arduous rebuild.

4. Honestly, things could have been better

12. Jalen Hurts, Philadelphia Eagles: 0.085 EPA+CPOE composite

13. Geno Smith, Seattle Seahawks: 0.068

14. Jacoby Brissett, New England Patriots: 0.067

15. Aaron Rodgers, New York Jets: 0.067

16. Tua Tagovailoa, Miami Dolphins: 0.060

Hurts was solid if not for a pair of instantly regrettable interceptions. Brissett did exactly what the Patriots hired him to do and protected the ball. Tagovailoa hung on long enough to find Tyreek Hill for a very Tyreek Hill touchdown in an eventual comeback win. And Rodgers didn't look like his normal self, but if he can be the league's 15th-best quarterback it was be a tremendous upgrade for the poor Jets.

5. Honestly, things could have been worse

17. Will Levis, Tennessee Titans: 0.055 EPA+CPOE composite

18. Justin Fields, Pittsburgh Steelers: 0.053

19. Anthony Richardson, Indianapolis Colts: 0.046

20. Gardner Minshew, Las Vegas Raiders: 0.043

Levis was a disaster after taking a 17-0 lead; his EPA/play in the second half vs. the Chicago Bears was -0.898, making almost every snap he took the equivalent of a point in Chicago's favor. Minshew couldn't rally the Raiders and Richardson had more steak than sizzle in his 2024 debut. Fields got a win but his average pass only traveled 5.3 yards downfield, which is frustratingly familiar to anyone watching Steelers football since 2019.

6. Huh, really?

21. Joe Burrow, Cincinnati Bengals: 0.032 EPA+CPOE composite

22. Lamar Jackson, Baltimore Ravens: 0.029

23. Jordan Love, Green Bay Packers: 0.028

24. Justin Herbert, Los Angeles Chargers: 0.021

25. Kirk Cousins, Atlanta Falcons: 0.015

Burrow started slow, as is his rich Bengals tradition. Jackson was a centimeter away from forcing overtime in Kansas City and boosting himself up a few tiers. Herbert was reduced to caretaker status in Jim Harbaugh's offense and, given his receiving corps, that's not the worst idea.

Love stunk in stretches against the Eagles and Cousins lacked the mobility to do any of the under-center or play-action directives that he's been so good at in the past. Cousins will get better over time; we're gonna have to wait and see how Love recovers from his sprained MCL.

7. A weird mix of underwhelming

26. Bo Nix, Denver Broncos: 0.003 EPA+CPOE composite

27. Deshaun Watson, Cleveland Browns: -0.011

28. Dak Prescott, Dallas Cowboys: -0.012

29. Jared Goff, Detroit Lions: -0.017

Here's a stretch where the numbers lie, as no one in their right mind would look at how Nix and Watson played Sunday and take either over Prescott or Goff. But Prescott didn't do a ton in a blowout win over Cleveland's impressive defense and Goff struggled in stretches against the Rams, which leaves them plenty of room to rise up in the coming weeks.

8. A small sample size for the Bears, more of the same for the Giants and Panthers

30. Daniel Jones, New York Giants: -0.028 EPA+CPOE composite

31. Bryce Young, Carolina Panthers: -0.053

32. Caleb Williams, Chicago Bears: -0.076

Welp, here's the last two first overall picks in the final two spots. Young was unable to boost his value in his first game under Dave Canales. Williams failed to lead the Bears to an offensive touchdown and his ball placement was iffy. If you had to bet on any of these guys rising above this modest station, it's the rookie -- especially considering how much better his blocking and receiving corps is compared to the rest.

This article originally appeared on For The Win: NFL QB Rankings before Week 2: All hail Baker Mayfield and Sam Darnold, kings of the small sample size