NFL straight-up picks, Week 1: How do you plan for opening weekend surprises?

Week 1 is the hardest week to predict on the NFL schedule.

Despite months of analysis and "breaking news" chyrons for big trades and signings, extrapolating each team's performance based on how they look on paper never quite works out. It's why there's only one game in a 16-matchup slate that features a spread greater than six points.

Of course, the other reason these spreads are so tight is because Week 1 is loaded with great matchups. The season opens with an AFC Conference Championship rematch between the Kansas City Chiefs and Baltimore Ravens. Friday night continues the NFL's experiment of force-feeding us football at every turn with a Green Bay Packers-Philadelphia Eagles showdown in Brazil. Monday's primetime game will see Aaron Rodgers take on the San Francisco 49ers team that's dealt him two of his last three playoff losses.

Let's try to unpack this chaotic week and pick some straight-up winners. I had a pretty solid 2023, ending the year as Pickwatch's top expert in a field of hundreds -- in fact, I'm now doing some side work in Pickwatch's VIP Discord channels if you want to talk more about these games.

Joining me for 2024 is a six-person panel ranging from FTW editors (Charles Curtis, Mary Clarke) to betting analysts (Prince Grimes) to NFL writers (Robert Zeglinski, Andrew Joseph, Meghan Hall). Here are our Week 1 picks:

And, because our publishing software is, uh, finicky, here are those picks in an easier to digest (but harder to copy/paste) JPG form.

and...

Let's break out three games to talk about.

Easiest game to pick: Cincinnati Bengals (-7.5) over the New England Patriots

Why I like this pick:

... c'mon.

Why I don't like this pick:

Ja'Marr Chase held out until the Wednesday before Week 1 and the Bengals are known for slow starts in the Zac Taylor/Joe Burrow era. It probably won't be enough to keep Cincinnati from starting 1-0, but it could make this game closer than you'd expect just looking at these two rosters.

Last season's (regular season) record: 13-5 (.722)

Hardest favorite to back: New York Giants (+1.5) over the Minnesota Vikings

Why I like this pick:

Well, huh. There aren't too many favorites that gave me pause in Week 1. If we're talking actual betting favorites, the New Orleans Saints are probably the closest -- but Carolina's defense is just shaky enough for me to fade.

Instead, I had to roll with a home underdog. The Vikings are going to disrupt Daniel Jones with an onslaught of pressure, especially knowing his screen pass game will be a shell of its former self now that Saquon Barkley is a Philadelphia Eagle.

But Jones has shown up with his back against the wall before. He's got the most talented wide receiver he's ever played with in Malik Nabers and a left tackle who can at least keep his blindside protected (please do not ask about the rest of the New York line). Darius Slayton can, theoretically, get back to the downfield routes he runs so well and Wan'Dale Robinson can be the safety valve the Giants' passing offense needs.

That's a lot of things that need to go right, but this is a game against the Vikings -- a team that can reliably count on things to go wrong when facing the football gods.

Why I don't like this pick:

Sam Darnold might be... kinda good? We didn't really see it last year since he was backup to Brock Purdy, but the last time Darnold was starting meaningful games (in 2022 with the Carolina Panthers) he was pretty solid in a small sample size.

Minnesota also revamped its pass rush, which should reduce defensive coordinator Brian Flores' league-leading 51.5 percent blitz rate and create more static in the secondary for Jones. But the Vikings were staring at a reset year no matter what, and Jones/head coach Brian Daboll may be working to save their jobs right now. They're playing at home with more to lose -- and I think they can defend that turf, even as underdogs to a rebuilding opponent.

Last season's record: 17-1 (.944)

Upset pick of the week: Indianapolis Colts (+3.5) vs. the Houston Texans

Why I like this pick:

Continuity. The Colts are effectively running it back with last year's squad plus a healthy Anthony Richardson. This is a unit with a lot of game experience together -- and a unit that will be motivated by being a 3.5-point underdog on its home turf to start the season.

Receiving depth. Indianapolis is working to make Richardson's life easier with a robust receiving corps. He's got a proven possession target in Michael Pittman, a rising slot threat in Josh Downs, a viable deep option in Alec Pierce and a potential do-it-all second round rookie Adonai Mitchell. That's a lot of threats to cover.

Indeed, the Texans' secondary is stacked at the top. Derek Stingley played at an All-Pro capacity last season and Jalen Pitre is a chaos engine. But Houston thins out after that recognizable duo. Day 2 draft picks Calen Bullock and Kamari Lassiter will likely play big roles this fall along with a shaky Jeff Okudah and a 33-year-old Jimmie Ward.

Richardson will have the chance to spread the ball out and take advantage of the Texans weaknesses. He should also see plenty of manageable third downs thanks to his own running ability -- he tucked the ball and ran on 23 percent of his dropbacks last season at 5.4 yards per clip -- and the return of a healthy Jonathan Taylor..

Why I don't like this pick:

One of the Colts' biggest weapons will be their ability to move the ball on the ground. Obviously Jonathan Taylor is a proven asset, but what we saw from Anthony Richardson in a small sample size was a chain-moving dynamo. His 64 percent success rate on runs was second-best in the NFL behind only Josh Allen.

That should set up the third-and-short situations in which Indianapolis can kill clock and extend drives. Except, well, the Texans' 33 percent success rate allowed was best in the NFL last season. That could force a quarterback with four career NFL games to his resume into more long yardage situations against a DeMeco Ryans defense.

Last season's record: 12-7 (.632)

This article originally appeared on For The Win: NFL straight-up picks, Week 1: How do you plan for opening weekend surprises?