NFL straight-up picks, Week 2: Finding optimism in the Jets, fading the Giants as hard as possible

Week 1 wasn't the upset-wreaking chaos I'd envisioned. Betting favorites went 13-3, with those three upsets coming against quarterbacks who'd missed significant chunks of the 2023 season due to injury.

Joe Burrow, Kirk Cousins and Deshaun Watson all looked varying forms of shaky in their 2024 debuts. Burrow couldn't develop a rhythm with a receiving corps lacking Tee Higgins (and getting just OK numbers from Ja'Marr Chase, who was locked down by New England Patriots cornerback Christian Gonzalez). Cousins clearly wasn't 100 percent, as the diet of play-action snaps that buoyed his career were absent in his Atlanta Falcons debut.

Watson -- the Cleveland Browns quarterback currently facing a sexual assault accusation after more than 20 accusations of sexual misconduct and what the NFL itself described as "predatory behavior" stemming from his time as a Houston Texan -- was mostly terrible against the Dallas Cowboys.

Burrow and Cousins will improve as on-field reps help them overcome that early season stiffness (Watson, well, has been a mess ever since arriving in Cleveland with a fully guaranteed $230 million contract). But will they find their groove in time to even their respective teams' records at 1-1? With the Cincinnati Bengals set to take on the Kansas City Chiefs and the Falcons locked into a date with the Philadelphia Eagles, hoooo buddy, this may not be the get-right week these teams needed.

Those games seem fairly straightforward, but Week 2 is a minefield of tricky games to navigate. Does Aaron Rodgers have a bounce-back game in him after his New York Jets were rolled by the San Francisco 49ers? Whose slow start last Sunday should we worry more about, the Buffalo Bills or Miami Dolphins? And is there any reason to think the New England Patriots might be merely "bad" instead of "inept?"

Let’s try to apply what we learned in Week 1 to pick some straight-up winners. I had a pretty solid 2023, ending the year as Pickwatch’s top expert in a field of hundreds — in fact, I’m now doing some side work in Pickwatch’s VIP Discord channels if you want to talk more about these games.

Joining me for 2024 is a six-person panel ranging from FTW editors (Charles Curtis, Mary Clarke) to betting analysts (Prince Grimes) to NFL writers (Robert Zeglinski, Andrew Joseph, Meghan Hall). Here are our Week 2 picks:

And, because our publishing software is, uh, finicky, here are those picks in an easier to digest (but harder to copy/paste) JPG form.

and:

Let’s break out three games to talk about.

Easiest game to pick: Houston Texans (-6.5) over the Chicago Bears

Why I like this pick:

C.J. Stroud is still dealing. Joe Mixon is capable of griding down clock and picking up useful yardage, even as his NFL odometer rolls over. The Texans faced a stout Indianapolis Colts team on the road last week and proved their championship mettle with a calm, composed win.

Plus, Caleb Williams' rookie debut (/loud sound of air being sucked over teeth).

Why I don’t like this pick:

Williams is too talented to be the league's worst starting quarterback in back-to-back weeks. The Colts tested Houston's young secondary and found success, and if Indianapolis' wideout depth without Josh Downs in the lineup was a problem, well, here come D.J. Moore, Keenan Allen and maybe Rome Odunze (week-to-week with an MCL sprain).

The Bears defense came alive to ruin Will Levis, held the Tennessee Titans to three third down conversions and only allowed two drives of more than 22 yards in Week 1. They'll be able to force Stroud into tough situations -- maybe tough enough to pull off the upset.

Last week: 0-1 (.000, thanks Bengals!)

2024 to date: 0-1 (.000)

Hardest favorite to back: Washington Commanders (-1.5) over the New York Giants

Why I like this pick:

We all saw Daniel Jones in Week 1, correct? Even the Vikings' linebackers started to feel bad for him last Sunday. There are a few difficult games to sift through this week, but only one features the heartwarming baby giraffe Giants staffers have taught to throw a football. Not well, mind you.

Why I don’t like this pick:

The Commanders, to put it cleanly, aren't good. The defense was picked clean last season and if there's any secondary that can revive Jones it's the one that just made Baker Mayfield 2024's best quarterback (for one week). Mike Sainristil may be the team's most talented cornerback and the rookie was roasted for two touchdowns in Week 1.

There's also the matter of Jayden Daniels' game tape. He was roughly what you'd expect from a debutante quarterback, slinging short passes and filling in the rest with his legs (88 rushing yards). New York just got roasted by Sam Darnold, but if the Giants can emphasize containment and get Brian Burns to play like the star he's meant to be, Washington's offense could take a step back -- and, again, they just got rolled by the Buccaneers.

Last week: 0-1 (.000, thanks Giants!)

2024 to date: 0-1 (.000)

Upset pick of the week: Los Angeles Rams (+1.5) over the Arizona Cardinals

Why I like this pick:

The Rams were a coin flip away from potentially beating the Detroit Lions on the road in Week 1. They got this done without Puka Nacua and with a litany of absences on their offensive line. Nacua won't be back, but Arizona lacks the pass rush to be the kind of quick throw-forcing presence the Lions were on Sunday night. Plus, the Cardinals *just* lost a game to one of the league's thinnest receiving corps.

LA's defense was eventually ground down in defeat, but while Matthew Stafford was mounting a comeback from 17-3 that unit held the Lions to a three-and-out, an interception, and a three-and-out in order to take a fourth quarter lead. Meanwhile, Kyler Murray spent his fourth quarter letting the Buffalo Bills off the hook. His rushing offense, where both James Conner and Trey Benson posted significant negative rush yards over expected (RYOE), is a similar concern.

Why I don’t like this pick:

The Arizona defense is a problem but its offense is capable of surges that could turn this game into a shootout. We're liable to see Marvin Harrison Jr. incorporated more in the Cardinals' passing game after he was largely ignored in Week 1, which will test a secondary that got ruined by Jameson Williams in its season opener.

Last week: 0-1 (.000, thanks Colts!)

2024 to date: 0-1 (.000)

This article originally appeared on For The Win: NFL straight-up picks, Week 2: Finding optimism in the Jets, fading the Giants as hard as possible