NFL trend watch: Steelers and Packers up; superstar quarterbacks down

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Pittsburgh Steelers

“It was a fight. I didn’t feel anyone blink or any guys running away from the challenge,” said Mike Tomlin with a satisfied snarl after the Steelers dispatched the LA Chargers on Sunday.

Tomlin has forged a team expected to struggle into the leaders of the AFC North. He may also have stumbled on a franchise quarterback in Justin Fields, who is growing in confidence. His athleticism is also helping boost offensive production, so the team’s scales aren’t tipped so violently toward TJ Watt and the Steelers defense. The Steelers outgained the Chargers on the ground – a key victory that saw LA’s JK Dobbins shut down from an impressive 10 yards per carry heading into the game to only three in Pittsburgh – with Fields contributing a rushing touchdown. But it was in the passing game where Fields’s quickness and speed of thought lifted Pittsburgh. Against LA’s blitz, Fields went 8 for 9 for 119 yards and a touchdown with no turnover-worthy plays.

Up next are a juicy succession of 1-2 teams: the Colts, Cowboys and Raiders. Starting with Indianapolis, the Steelers should be confident of roaring to 4-0 as the matchup looks very pretty from Pittsburgh’s perspective. Offensive coordinator Arthur Smith has the running power in Najee Harris and Fields to punish a Colts defense conceding 179 yards per game on the ground. Watt will also be confident he can harass Indy’s quarterback Anthony Richardson into continuing a slump full of mistakes and missed throws.

Green Bay Packers

The arrow is pointing up for strong defense giving teams an edge in 2024. The remaining unbeaten teams – Minnesota, Pittsburgh, Kansas City, Buffalo and Seattle – show that overwhelming force, left-field innovation and/or playing two high safeties can be pivotal.

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Another team snapping at that group’s heels are the surging Packers. Praise is due for Matt LaFleur’s reinvention of Malik Willis into a functional quarterback. But even more credit should be heaped on the numbers Jeff Hafley’s defense is putting up.

Green Bay are the premier defensive playmakers in the NFL, leading total turnovers (nine) and turnover differential (+7). The takeaways have come at an even clip too, with three in each game, and the Packers have already matched their interception count from last season with seven.

Xavier McKinney has three of those. The safety was picked up from the Giants as a Swiss Army knife for Hafley to move around at will in order to constantly change what an offense is seeing. So far this aggressive approach is working. McKinney has lined up at strong safety, post safety, linebacker and even on the defensive line. Green Bay’s pass rush is working too. Against the Packers, Jalen Hurts was pressured consistently, Anthony Richardson was driven to distraction and Will Levis took a whopping eight sacks. A big factor in Sunday’s victory over the Titans was Green Bay’s improvement in stopping the run, after conceding more than 100 yards on the ground in weeks one and two. Less rushing (just 11 attempts and 33 yards) meant more passing from Levis and even more chances for the league’s most opportunistic backfield to cash in. It’s trickle-down economics that should pay dividends for a run at the postseason.

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The superstar quarterback

Week three was a less than stellar weekend in a less than stellar season for an uncomfortable number of the highest-profile quarterbacks in the NFL. We should start with the elephant in the room. The Dallas Cowboys are paying Dak Prescott $231m in guaranteed money over the next four years and are sitting at 1-2 after shoddy output in successive home losses. Does that feel like good value? His earth-shattering contract could represent a high-water mark for overpaying. And then there’s Cleveland’s $230m in guarantees for Deshaun Watson that represents a dismal failure of team-building – and character – for the 1-2 Browns.

Elsewhere, No 1 overall picks are damaging brand Big QB too. Of the nine active in the NFL, five were defeated (Caleb Williams, Trevor Lawrence, Joe Burrow, Kyler Murray, Baker Mayfield) and two are backups (Bryce Young and Jameis Winston), leaving only two to collect a win (Jared Goff and Matthew Stafford). This current crop’s lustre appears to be fading fast as “generational” quarterbacks such as Lawrence and Burrow (both also in the mega-money stakes at $200m and $218m guaranteed respectively) are winless with their playoff chances already reeling.

Lawrence’s credentials took the more significant battering on Monday night. Burrow, at least, has played in a Super Bowl and has thrown five touchdowns to zero interceptions this season. Yes, Lawrence plays on a flawed Jacksonville team. But so does Stafford, who beat the San Francisco 49ers without elite receivers Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua and six offensive linemen out on injured reserve.

Questions should be raised over how heavily the crown is weighing on Lawrence. The Jags’ decision to temporarily rename their stadium “TrEverBank” continues to bring his shortcomings into greater relief. Forcing Lawrence to be a superstar when, aside from his imposing stature, he comes across as a modest, reserved figure feels like a plan hatched to pump up the comparatively low market value of the Jaguars, rather than to help their prized asset achieve his potential.

The picture grows darker still with Young in Carolina. Only 18 starts into his career, he already looks unlikely to have much of a future with the Panthers. Does he just not have it or did enduring 14 defeats last season shatter his confidence? The Bears should consider how they treat their star in light of Young’s struggles. Williams looked much better throwing the ball against the Colts, and he smashed the Bears’ single game total for passing yards by a rookie. The three turnovers however, one of which was a terrible decision on a late throw, were much less encouraging. Rookie errors are expected. But repeated rookie errors across a whole season forced by playing behind the Bears’ shoddy offensive line could cause lasting damage. Chicago were never going to the Super Bowl this year, so why not have Williams sit behind a veteran he can learn from (this would, of course, require signing someone other than Tyson Bagent)? It worked for Patrick Mahomes.