Yahoo Sport 
The Ollie Watkins and Jhon Duran issue that might be impossible for Unai Emery to ignore
The sight of Ollie Watkins expertly clipping Noni Maduake’s cross into the Greece net will be one that brought a smile to Unai Emery’s face.
The Aston Villa striker bagged the first of England’s three goals in Athens on Thursday night and set his country on the way to a 3-0 victory that put them back in control of their Nations League group.
It was the striker’s first goal in six games and the sixth of what has been a season that is yet to hit the heights of his outstanding 2023/24 campaign.
It is also a season in which a challenger for his role as Emery’s first choice No. 9 has emerged, with Jhon Duran’s impact off the bench – and in relief of Watkins – creating a narrative that simply didn’t exist previously.
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And data has emerged that neatly sums up the situation – and Duran’s growing calls to overhaul Watkins in the pecking order. Those figures, from Grosvenor Sport, centre around the respective players’ xG numbers.
Everyone knows about Duran’s success as a substitute, only he and Brentford’s Yoane Wissa average a goal in under every one hundred minutes – Duran scoring on average every 59 minutes.
Wissa’s Brentford teammate Bryan Mbuemo is the Premier League’s most clinical player this season, overperforming his xG by -4.06. Mbuemo has bagged eight goals from an xG of only 3.94.
Duran ranks 17 on that list with four Premier League goals from an xG of 2.78.
Watkins however has so far been among the most wasteful, indeed the fifth most when it comes to scoring fewer goals than his xG.
Adama Traore is the worst offender with one goal from an xG of 3.87, while Watkins is with five goals from an xG of 7.36. Former Villa striker Cameron Archer is third worst with two goals despite an xG of 4.54.
With Villa just having a slight wobble as the demands of Champions and Premier League take their toll it’s fair to wonder if Duran might be closing in on a first league start of the season.
