Premiership season predictions: Why Northampton will not retain the title

The Premiership season begins on Friday and the league will be looking to kick on after last season’s entertaining  campaign.

Northampton will be among the favourites to lift the trophy again, but are likely to face stiff competition from Bath and Sale, among others.

Telegraph Sport’s rugby experts predict how the season will play out, and what they are most looking forward to.

How the table will finish

1. Sale Sharks (winners)

2. Northampton Saints

3. Bath

4. Saracens

5. Exeter Chiefs

6. Harlequins

7. Leicester Tigers

8. Bristol Bears

9. Gloucester

10. Newcastle Falcons

It’s a fantastically difficult league to call. Northampton are the standard bearers but have a target on their backs this season, and Saracens are in a rebuilding phase. Bath’s resurgence was one of the standout features of last season and they will again be strong contenders. But the way that Sale gathered themselves to push for the title last time is indicative of the progress made under Alex Sanderson. With a rejuvenated George Ford back at the helm pulling strings, this could be their year.

Player of the season: Maro Itoje (Saracens)

It has the potential to be a huge season for the England lock. He has been appointed Saracens club captain and is almost certain to be in the mix for the Lions captaincy, if he can dominate the international stage. His leadership and form will be critical as Saracens attempt to move on to a new era after the departures of Owen Farrell and the Vunipola brothers.

Breakthrough player of the season: Asher Opoku-Fordjour (Sale Sharks)

The England head coach will be eager for as many of England’s Under-20s winning side as possible to get game time this season. Asher Opoku-Fordjour, a formidable prospect, looks one of the players best placed to do so.

Top try-scorer: Ollie Sleightholme (Northampton Saints)

Sleightholme led the way last season and should come back from his experience with England over the summer an even more potent finisher. His explosive pace has brought a new dimension to the England back three.

I am most looking forward to… a Gloucester and Newcastle revival

It would be fantastic to see a revival this season at Gloucester and Newcastle: both found themselves cast adrift at the bottom of the table last term. Newcastle went through the entire campaign without a win. After the loss of three clubs, the league desperately needs these two teams with proud histories to become more competitive.

How the table will finish

1. Bath (champions)

2. Sale Sharks

3. Northampton Saints

4. Leicester Tigers

5. Saracens

6. Harlequins

7. Exeter Chiefs

8. Bristol Bears

9. Gloucester

10. Newcastle Falcons

My prediction is being made with no confidence whatsoever. My hunches are that Bath will use their final defeat to fuel a first title win in the Premiership era, Michael Cheika will inspire a bounce at Leicester and that Northampton may struggle to replace so many big-name departures. The biggest variables are Saracens in their post-Owen Farrell phase, Bristol, given their hot streak to end last season, and Harlequins because they’re Harlequins. I also suspect Gloucester and Newcastle may be more competitive than many anticipate. But am not brave enough to place them higher because I am a coward.

Player of the season: Finn Russell (Bath)

Predicated on Bath finishing top, Russell would be the natural choice for pundits given he combines being a joy to watch with a clutch mentality.

Breakthrough player of the season: Tom Willis (Saracens)

Is 25 a bit too old to be considered a breakthrough player? Probably, but I just have a feeling Willis is going to take a giant leap forward at Saracens to become the main man at No 8 after Billy Vunipola’s departure.

Top try-scorer: Ollie Sleightholme (Northampton)

However Northampton fare this season, they are going to score bucket-loads of tries and more often than not it will be Sleightholme who appears on the shoulder of their half backs.

I am most looking forward to… the Saracens rebuild

Owen Farrell was such a totemic figure for Saracens that they are not just replacing a fly half but their beating heart. Mark McCall is the most successful coach in the land but then so was Bill Belichick at the New England Patriots before he lost quarterback Tom Brady and his job.

How the table will finish

1. Bath (winners)

2. Sale Sharks

3. Northampton Saints

4. Leicester Tigers

5. Saracens

6. Exeter Chiefs

7. Bristol Bears

8. Harlequins

9. Gloucester

10. Newcastle Falcons

I am reasonably confident that my top three will make the play-offs and I think Bath have the depth to go one better this season if Finn Russell stays fit. Champions are often spurred on by painful losses in previous campaigns. Below that, in the race for fourth, it may as well be a tombola. Each of the competitors have admirable assets and ominous faults. Michael Cheika is bound to inspire a bounce in the East Midlands, which may be just enough for Leicester to sneak into a semi-final – though they must figure out their backline balance. At the bottom, expect Newcastle to be a fiercer outfit this season.

Player of the season: George Ford (Sale Sharks)

Alex Sanderson’s team seems settled and their general, Ford, has had an extended pre-season without the toils of Test duty with England. After that happened in summer 2021, the fly-half guided Leicester Tigers all the way to glory. Waisea Nayacalevu will be a new, explosive midfield weapon for Ford to use. Andy Onyeama-Christie at Saracens and Greg Fisilau of Exeter Chiefs are two other shouts.

Breakthrough player of the season: Afolabi Fasogbon (Gloucester)

England need a tighthead prop to seize their chance at senior level and Fasogbon has the raw materials. The burly player helped shove his country to U20 World Championship glory and should get opportunities at Gloucester. There are exciting young wings around the league: Paul Brown Bampoe (Exeter), Cassius Cleaves (Harlequins), Tobias Elliot (Saracens), Malelili Satala (Leicester) and Alex Wills (Sale Sharks) to name just five.

Top try-scorer: Tom Roebuck (Sale Sharks)

Rangy yet deceptively quick and well balanced, not to mention excellent in the air, Roebuck is a multi-faceted wing with a nose for the whitewash. He landed 10 tries last season and could improve on that tally.

I am most looking forward to… Exeter’s rebuild

Among several rebuilds around the league, with Saracens and Newcastle undergoing particularly significant changes, Exeter Chiefs 3.0 remains a fascinating project. Will they suffer from a collective case of second season syndrome? Or can they build on the foundations of last term? Injuries to Henry Slade, Dafydd Jenkins and Jacques Vermeulen must be a concern… but they will allow more intrepid youngsters to shine.

How the table will finish

1. Bath (winners)

2. Northampton Saints

3. Sale Sharks

4. Leicester Tigers

5. Exeter Chiefs

6. Saracens

7. Harlequins

8. Bristol Bears

9. Gloucester

10. Newcastle Faclons

Bath to go one better this year, challenged fiercely by Saints. Leicester and Exeter should see improvements while Saracens, in the midst of a Farrell-less transition, may stutter. There are surely no surprises in the bottom two – nor their order. But the nature of the league and the teams is such that you are reading what is the 10th draft of my final table. Beneath the top two and above the bottom two it is virtually anyone’s guess.

Player of the season: Thomas du Toit (Bath)

The signing of last season gave one of the most unforgettable showings in a losing cause as Bath lost to Northampton in the Premiership final, but that was surely just the beginning. Playing on both sides of the scrum, the South African prop is worth his weight in gold. No scales are required to know that that is a decent amount of aurum, however.

Breakthrough player of the season: Cassius Cleaves (Harlequins)

Depressingly, this category was harder than in recent years because it is unlikely any of England’s golden Under-20s will be afforded meaningful, regular Premiership game time. Fasogbon is the front-runner but I have gone for a wing in last year’s England Under-20s set-up who has looked as sharp as a katana in pre-season for Harlequins. And, owing to a bit of injury strife in the Quins back three, Cleaves might actually get some game time during this Premiership campaign; the 21-year-old is waiting to make his first appearance in English rugby’s top-flight. Also keep an eye out for Sam Harris, the Bath full-back, Northampton’s vast cohort of young props alongside openside Henry Pollock, and Will Wand at Leicester, who has impressed in pre-season.

Top try-scorer: Ollie Sleightholme (Northampton)

At club and country, there is serious wing competition. Three does not go into two and in Sleightholme, Freeman and Feyi-Waboso, England have a premium trio. All three, with fewer Premiership clashes with international fixtures, should be near the top of this statistic towards the end of the season but it is Sleightholme’s raw pace, in a side who know how to use it, which nudges him to the front.

I am most looking forward to… a relegation play-off

A relegation play-off at the end of the season, should one of the suitable teams finish top of the Championship. The Premiership is craving jeopardy but, admittedly, it would not sit well if one of the 10 teams were to drop down a tier. Sometimes the toughest calls are the right calls, however.

How the table will finish

1. Bath (winners)

2. Northampton Saints

3. Sale Sharks

4. Exeter Chiefs

5. Leicester Tigers

6. Saracens

7. Harlequins

8. Gloucester

9. Bristol Bears

10. Newcastle Falcons

Really this is a table in three parts; the top three who will all be in the semi-finals, fourth to ninth from where one side will sneak into the play-offs, and then Newcastle, who will be better but not enough to trouble the rest. A young Exeter faded last season but will be stronger for that experience, while Leicester will get a Cheika bounce. As for the winner, I can’t have been the only one who left Twickenham after last season’s final feeling bullish about Bath’s chances 12 months later. Ross Molony and Guy Pepper have been smart additions.

Player of season: Finn Russell (Bath)

An obvious winner if Russell helps end the club’s 28-year title drought. Bath have many strengths and coped well without him towards the end of the last season when Russell was briefly out injured, but the Scotland captain can win games on his own.

Breakthrough player of season: Rekeiti Ma’asi-White (Sale)

The stage appears set for Sale centre Ma’asi-White to thrive, with Sam James and Manu Tuilagi having moved on. The arriving Fiji captain Waisea Nayacalevu can be a great mentor for Ma’asi-White, a powerful runner who does not look fun to tackle.

Top try-scorer: Christian Wade (Gloucester)

Ollie Sleightholme is a very good bet to go back-to-back after 14 tries last season, but Wade would be fun. Gloucester should be sharper out wide with Tomos Williams and Gareth Anscombe steering the ship. It’s asking a lot as Wade is 33, but over four seasons between 2014 and 2018 he scored 12, 12, 17 and 13.

I am most looking forward to… young guns thriving

To be candid, the list of incoming signings this season is quite underwhelming, compared to the outgoings heading overseas. Teams more than ever are relying on their academies to produce players who can crack into the first team and make a name for themselves. It’s why Immanuel Feyi-Waboso’s rise was such an enjoyable story last season, so let’s hope for more of those this time around off the back of England’s Under-20 success. Asher Opoku-Fordjour, Afolabi Fasogbon, Finn Carnduff and Henry Pollock have huge potential.