All quiet on the transfer front: has FFP stymied Premier League spending?

It’s quiet. The transfer window has been open for more than a fortnight but most Premier League clubs appear not to have noticed. Instead of the nervous energy that usually makes January so stressful for dealmakers, stillness has descended upon the richest league in the world. Even the usual suspects have remained calm. Chelsea have been a model of restraint so far and there has been no frantic spending from teams at the bottom of the table, whereas in previous years they would have regarded signings as their best chance of avoiding relegation.

Industry insiders have felt the shift away from the old excess. The widespread view is that the caution is because clubs are wary of falling foul of financial fair play regulations and the league’s profit and sustainability rules, which do not allow for losses of more than £105m over a three-year period.

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According to several sources, Everton’s 10-point deduction for breaching PSR has created nerviness around spending. The message out of a club who would like to make at least one signing is that they have to be careful before committing to anything. New charges for Everton and Nottingham Forest will hardly bolster confidence.

Admittedly, it is too early to declare that the transfer circus has left town for good. A quiet start to January is not unusual. Last year was slow at first. Liverpool had a £37m deal for Cody Gakpo ready to go on New Year’s Day. Leeds and Southampton were active as they battled to stay up. Four players had joined Chelsea by 15 January. Aston Villa signed Àlex Moreno on 11 January. But a lot of deals, big or small, went through towards the end of the window.

Panic has an influence on behaviour. Efficient clubs tend to operate smoothly during the summer. If they spend in January, it tends to be fine-tuning rather than emergency repairs. Clubs at the opposite end of the scale are usually in a bad situation and trying to fix mistakes. Value is scarce in January. The buying party is often not doing so from a position of strength.

West Ham, for instance, were planning for a quiet month before a sudden injury crisis forced them to look for attacking additions. Mauricio Pochettino has said that Chelsea’s need for a striker will increase if Christopher Nkunku’s hip problem is serious. There could be a sudden surge. Newcastle and Tottenham want a midfielder. Spurs have already broken from tradition by moving early, loaning Timo Werner and signing Radu Dragusin for £25m. Perhaps it will take only one deal to breathe life into the market.

Yet the overall tone is downbeat. The rumour mill is hardly whirring. One manager of a big Championship club would jump at the chance to sign four players but his bosses have to think about the bottom line. Arsenal need a goalscorer but their financial position has made a move for Brentford’s Ivan Toney unrealistic. Chelsea want a striker but their dream target, Napoli’s Victor Osimhen, would not be cheap, and FFP concerns mean they will listen to offers for Conor Gallagher. Unlike Bournemouth, who boosted their relegation fight by spending big last January, this season’s promoted teams have extremely tight budgets. Burnley and Sheffield United have been restricted to a couple of loans.

At the other end of the table Aston Villa’s manager, Unai Emery, has spoken about his unlikely title challengers needing sales if they are to buy. That inability to inject fresh energy with a signing may prevent Villa from doing a Leicester, who defied the odds by winning the league in 2016, and even Newcastle’s Saudi owners cannot simply spend their way to glory. It was hard not to point at FFP when Darren Eales, Newcastle’s chief executive, raised the possibility of a key player being sold this summer.

If only the Saudi Pro League clubs were willing to come to the rescue by paying big fees for fading Premier League stars. But after the eyecatching spending last summer, the sense coming out of the SPL at the moment is that there will not be much movement. The money is still there but it may go on cheaper, more moderate names.

That void is unlikely to be filled by European clubs. It is difficult for Spanish, German and Italian clubs to afford Premier League fees and wages. Bayern Munich have signed Eric Dier from Spurs but Borussia Dortmund have been able only to loan Chelsea’s Ian Maatsen and Manchester United’s Jadon Sancho.

To add to the complication clubs have to think about losing players to the Asian Cup and the Africa Cup of Nations. Mid-season tournaments leave gaps in squads. It makes clubs keener to hold on to fringe players, but it also makes little sense to buy cover for a player who will soon be back from international duty. By the same token the risk with buying Osimhen now is that he would not be available until the second half of February if Nigeria reach the Afcon final.

It all means that money is not changing hands, clogging up the market. This time last year Chelsea were chasing Enzo Fernández, Newcastle were closing to signing Anthony Gordon, Arsenal were about to buy Jakub Kiwior, Leandro Trossard and Jorginho. At the moment there is a danger of tumbleweed blowing across the Sky Sports News studio on deadline day.