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Shaikin: Beat L.A.? The Padres could. Here's how AJ Preller and Co. made that possible
This may surprise you, but A.J. Preller has run the San Diego Padres for longer than Andrew Friedman has run the Dodgers.
Not by much. The Padres hired Preller in August 2014, the Dodgers hired Friedman two months later, and since then the Dodgers have dominated the National League West.
For the Dodgers: eight division championships, three NL championships, one World Series championship.
For the Padres: zero, zero and zero.
The three-game showdown series that starts Tuesday at Dodger Stadium could be cause for mutual celebration. The Padres could clinch a wild-card playoff berth during the series, and the Dodgers could clinch another division championship. If the Padres win the series, they would extend the division race into the season’s final weekend.
Read more: Mookie Betts hits walk-off homer to give Dodgers win over Rockies
In the year the Padres hired Preller, they finished 17 games out of first place. They have not finished any closer between then and now, excepting the pandemic-shortened season of 2020.
In the wake of the Padres’ high-budget flop last year, all eyes turned to Preller, and not unreasonably: Amid three controlling owners, five managers, three interim managers, Preller was the constant over the last decade.
In the Padres’ first season since the passing of beloved owner Peter Seidler, the payroll was slashed by one-third. The Padres lost their three best players last season: Cy Young winner Blake Snell and their only 2023 All-Stars, outfielder Juan Soto and closer Josh Hader.
It would be insulting to the players on a talented roster to say Preller executed a successful rebuild. Manny Machado was still around, and so were Fernando Tatis Jr., Yu Darvish, Joe Musgrove, Xander Bogaerts, Jake Cronenworth and Ha-Seong Kim.
And it would be silly to say the Padres anticipated an All-Star season from Jurickson Profar, signed during spring training because, well, someone had to play left field. The Padres did expect big things from center fielder Jackson Merrill, eventually, but he opened last season at Class A, opened this season as a 20-year-old major leaguer and could close the season as NL rookie of the year.
But it would be fair to say that Preller deserves a fair share of credit for the Padres winning 90 games for the first time since 2010. The Padres are playing .702 ball since the All-Star break (40-17, the best in the major leagues).
In March, he traded for starting pitcher Dylan Cease. In May, he traded for infielder and two-time batting champion Luis Arraez. In July, his deadline trades netted star relievers Jason Adam and Tanner Scott and veteran starter Martin Perez.
In those five trades, Preller gave up 15 minor leaguers. In the trades for the relievers, he gave up six of his top 12.
The skeptical fan might say: “Of course Preller did, because he was trying to save his job.” The sympathetic fan might say: “Of course Preller did, because this is what he always does. He traded Trea Turner and Max Fried as prospects.”
But, really, what Preller did is what more of his colleagues should be doing, and more owners should be demanding from their baseball operations leader. No fan paying ever-higher ticket prices wants to hear about a five-year plan. In an era when 40% of teams make the playoffs, is it asking too much for a team to try to win?
If you are an owner, do not hire someone who seduces you with jargon like financial flexibility, hoards minor leaguers and confuses you into believing “prospect” is synonymous with “minor leaguer.” Hire someone who can separate the prospects from the other minor leaguers, can learn from a mistake rather than refuse to take a risk, and can hire talented scouts and coaches to replenish a farm system.
In 2018, halfway between now and the time the Guggenheim ownership infused the Dodgers with cash and smarts, the Dodgers’ top five prospects were pitchers Walker Buehler and Mitch White; catcher Keibert Ruiz; and outfielders Yusniel Diaz and Alex Verdugo.
The Dodgers identified Buehler as the must-keep prospect and traded the other four. The returns included Mookie Betts, Machado, Turner and Max Scherzer.
Oh, and do not fall for the binary of “we are buyers” or “we are sellers.” The best teams do both, all the time. When Preller traded Soto, he acquired Michael King, a New York Yankees reliever who has blossomed into the Padres’ most effective starter this season, as measured by ERA+.
King (12-9, 3.04 ERA) starts Tuesday against the Dodgers, followed by Cease on Wednesday and Musgrove on Thursday.
The trick here is that, while you do not want someone shy about making moves, you also do not want someone who, as John Wooden would have said, mistakes activity for achievement. Baseball is all about winning in October.
Baseball is a business too, and customer satisfaction is an essential barometer of the success of any business. The Padres set an attendance record last year, even as they bombed on the field, but so many fans believed that the Padres set another attendance record this year, selling 3.3 million tickets and selling out two-thirds of their home games.
Read more: Shaikin: How the Padres continue to consistently draw fans to Petco Park
I spoke with Preller the other day, but he didn’t want to say too much. The Padres have not won anything yet, after all.
The city of San Diego awaits its first championship parade in any major sport. The Padres, the team that did not flee San Diego for Los Angeles, keep hope alive.
“Peter Seidler always would say, ‘The baseball gods have to smile on you to win that World Series,’ ” Preller told me. “But we were in the playoffs in ‘20, in the playoffs in ‘22, and we’re hoping to go again this year.
“What we’ve tried to build is an organization where every single year, a fan can start the season and say, ‘If things go right and the baseball gods smile upon us, we can win the World Series this year.’ We feel like we have that type of team this year.”
This story originally appeared in Los Angeles Times.
