The sudden jumps in WNBA trading card prices capitalize on new interest, but at what cost?

I blinked and got priced out of my personal collection.

My experience as a WNBA card collector for 28 years has been a steady stream of “nobody cares about WNBA cards” when I ask most dealers. Then hobby boxes of 2024 WNBA Select sold out in about three minutes on Panini’s website at the bargain price of $874 — more than a 500 percent increase from what boxes of WNBA cards were sold for last year.

I guess somebody cares now.

Or a lot of somebodies who aren’t the folks like me who showed up for WNBA releases all those years we only had one option. These new somebodies certainly are showing up in droves on live-selling platforms like Whatnot to spend thousands on Select FOTL (first off the line) breaks, where participants buy the rights to every card of a certain team or player pulled out of the packs being opened. Yet they seem especially disappointed when they don’t hit one of the chaser spots with one-word titles like “Brink” or “Angel.” Breakers who can’t pronounce WNBA MVP A’ja Wilson’s name correctly or toss a Napheesa Collier autograph aside with the heap of other veteran players are looking for a specific somebody.

Everyone is looking for a specific somebody. Maybe at the expense of those of us who still, foolishly, collect everybody.

Caitlin Clark is quite a somebody, a brilliant basketball player and even more prolific marketing icon. And while her arrival in the WNBA has opened doors to greater visibility and fan interest, her impact on the niche sector of WNBA collecting feels more like a door slamming shut to those who built inclusive WNBA card communities and promoted products when everyone told us nobody cared. Pricing out your most loyal consumers, while also skyrocketing the price above the means of new entrants into the marketplace is not an effective strategy for long-term success.

As a sport marketing professor I often discuss the two big “R”s: reach and revenue. Reach is about growing your audience, while revenue is money you generate. Check any online card forum and it is clear that the surging popularity of the WNBA has brought in new collectors, as well as collectors from other sports, into the WNBA card marketplace. The Clark collector craze is a dream come true for sport card companies’ desire to grow the reach of women’s basketball collecting.

With so many new fans primed to become collectors, Panini and distributors should have rushed to provide affordable and accessible products to these newbies in an effort to transform them from casual fans to lifelong, avid collectors. But instead of long-term growth, companies chose $875 boxes of WNBA Select, Dutch auctions, and a FOTL Select hobby single box priced higher than the cost of an entire case of 2023 WNBA Prizm. While Panini Instant offered single cards at $10, and draft sets at $75 plus shipping, tunnel vision on the rookie class provided a narrow collecting space for new team collectors. Even when Panini kept direct allocation costs in line with previous years, secondary distributors seized the opportunity to hike box prices 6x to card shops and online merchants. Years of loyalty buying WNBA products when demand was low meant nothing to distributors focused only on quick revenue. Consumer reach was pushed aside for short-term gain. This wasn’t a gradual rise over a decade, but a dramatic shift from one year to the next.

When asked about pricing changes, Panini did not provide a response.

Many companies across all consumer products strike a careful balance between reach and revenue, particularly when demand and interest in their product spikes. To not take advantage and increase bottom-line revenue would be foolish, but the key is to find a middle ground that doesn’t alienate your long-term, most loyal consumers in the process. And that is what feels so striking about what has occurred in the WNBA card space.

Less than a year ago I purchased a case of 2023 WNBA Origins cards for $599. The latest edition of that same release, 2024 WNBA Origins, now sells for $3,759. But nobody cares?

I guess people care now, huh? Or do they? Is the current state of WNBA cards a reflection of the incredible spike in fan avidity for the league, or are we witnessing a masterclass on how to leverage FOMO and consumers with limited experience with a niche product, all existing in an artificial economy built on gambling? Future years will determine that.

With Panini holding the WNBA trading card licensing for at least one more year and possibly up to three, appearing to forgo a focus on growing reach and limiting a tremendous opportunity to expand WNBA card collecting in the pursuit of short-term profit is disappointing. Like, paying $875 and pulling a Shey Peddy and Katie Douglas base autograph type of disappointment.

Perhaps card companies and distributors are counting on upcoming draft classes with future one-name “chase spots.” Names like “Paige” and “Juju” may tempt gamblers looking for a quick flip, but what goes up, must come down, and certainly prices more than quadrupling in 10 months is rarely sustainable.

Who will be left when the speculators move on and the most devoted and dedicated, long-time WNBA collectors have been alienated in the pursuit of maximizing the most immediate profit? In WNBA terms the question is: who got next?

This article originally appeared in The Athletic.

WNBA, Sports Business, Memorabilia & Collectibles

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