Tennis betting, odds: Two plays for Saturday’s Madrid Open action

Tennis betting, odds: Two plays for Saturday’s Madrid Open action

The ATP Masters Madrid Open is well underway in Spain. Although missing a few faces like Novak Djokovic, Rafael Nadal and Jannik Sinner, it’s so far been an exciting tournament. Here are two matches to wager for Saturday’s Round of 64.

Bet: Christian Garin vs. Miomir Kecmanovic OV 22.5 games

Garin is the better player in this matchup. Although I know Kecmanovic is capable of high-caliber play, he has a propensity to fade away and get discouraged when he feels he’s overmatched.

Reasons to take the OVER: This is the first meeting between the two. The better clay court player here is definitely Garin, but Kecmanovic did impress with his recent showing in his last tournament, the SRPSKA Open in Banja Luka. He also surprised me in the first set of his loss against Italian Lorenzo Musetti at Monte Carlo, taking him to a tiebreak. The Serbian is capable of good aggressive tennis and the faster conditions at the Madrid clay courts can complement that. Kecmanovic has good rhythm and momentum coming into Madrid, which should help him contend with Garin.

Bet: Dusan Lajovic +2.5 games vs. Felix Auger Aliassime

I love this wager. Lajovic is having the best year of his life on tour for sure. In Miami he was overwhelmed with a loss to 19-year-old Carlos Alcaraz in the first set 6-0, but then raged back against the World No. 2, losing 6-7 (5-7) in the tiebreaker. Since then, the Serbian has gone on to win the SRPSKA Open, defeating World No. 1 Novak Djokovic, and World No. 6 Andrey Rublev in the final.

Lajovic’s game is packed with touch, consistency, variety and above all patience. Usually I’d be worried about stamina with the run he’s recently been on, but he’s coming into this match against Auger Aliassime with a quick win in the first round while FAA last played in Miami a month ago.

The only trouble Lajovic may have is against Felix’s serving power, which will be complemented by the higher altitude of Madrid. The good news for Lajovic is that he is capable of neutralizing power with his backhand slice and working himself into points.

This is a great moment to back Lajovic with the form he currently has against a player who is still trying to get back in the swing of things after coming back from a knee injury. Taking the ML on Lajovic at +130 is enticing, but the more conservative option is +2.5 games.