Title is Leverkusen’s to lose as Alonso shows he is far from a one-trick pony

The race for the Bundesliga being over before spring has sprung? Of course. Plus ça change, wake me up when it’s summer and all the rest. This time, though, it’s not Bayern Munich calling time at the inn but of all teams, Bayer Leverkusen.

Sunday’s win just down the road at Köln for Leverkusen did what Harry Kane’s stoppage-time winner for Bayern prevented against Leipzig in the previous weekend. Still-unbeaten Leverkusen now have a 10-point cushion over the perpetual champions at the top with only 10 games left. Granit Xhaka, a hugely influential presence for the (we can say it, even if they can’t) champions-elect all season, warned afterwards of his experience of a big lead being reeled in by the division’s superpower at Arsenal last season. “I explain to them what happened,” he told ESPN’s Archie Rhind-Tutt of his discourse to his teammates, “but you can’t explain with words. You have to feel it.”

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If there was one moment in Cologne when it felt as if the tide could still turn it came six minutes into the second half. The home side had been even more up against it than they might have expected, reduced to 10 men in the 14th minute when Jan Thielmann planted studs on the back of (an irate but contained) Xhaka’s calf. Yet in the 51st minute Köln were still in it, a goal down to Jeremie Frimpong’s opener but by no means submerged, fighting hard and with as much intelligence as resolve, which didn’t look a given in a (over) physical first-half in which their frustration at the perceived injustice of Thielmann’s dismissal frequently threatened to boil over.

The strugglers got the chance they barely dared to dream of. Sargis Adamyan, the striker who had not started a single one of Effzeh’s previous 23 Bundesliga matches this season while his teammates plundered a miserable 16 goals between them, received Rasmus Carstensen’s cross from the right; just behind him, but he met it just in front of the penalty spot with an instep volley as he tumbled. It beat Lukas Hradecky, hit the inside of a post, before a grateful Hradecky and Frimpong shepherded the ball out and the home side’s chance of a famous equaliser – and maybe result – had come and gone.

There have been few moments this season in which Leverkusen have ridden any sort of luck, but this was one. They quickly collected themselves and their other wing-back, Álex Grimaldo, wrapped it up with a second. This was them finding yet another way to win a game – often dominating possession over opponents. They beat Bayern at their BayArena by letting Thomas Tuchel’s side have the ball and then picking them off. Here, they faced a robust challenge from inferior and committed opponents in a derby fervour, and refused to be ruffled, or provoked; Jonathan Tah talked afterwards of Leverkusen wanting to get the opener “too quickly” after the Thielmann red, but of a “much better” second half, “using the spaces and dividing them by moving the ball at speed”. Xabi Alonso and his ultra-responsive players are far from one-trick ponies.

Leverkusen’s cool is such that you suspect few of a Bayern persuasion watched on in hope on Sunday afternoon. For all Xhaka’s words of caution, this Leverkusen differ from last season’s Arsenal and, at least as importantly, this Bayern are definitely not Manchester City. Having come back from a goal down on Friday night at Freiburg, scored from range by Christian Günter, Tuchel’s team led going into the closing minutes after fine strikes from Mathys Tel and Jamal Musiala, two players who they really should want to be part of a better future.

Yet they carelessly frittered away two points, leaving their low-key nemesis Lucas Höler free to strike a sweetly volleyed equaliser past Manuel Neuer with three minutes of normal time to go, off a standard, should-have-been-easily-defendable thrown-in situation. “We did things that we have never practised before, that we have never talked about,” said a downcast Tuchel. If we already know that Bayern are looking for a new coach for next season, it appears that their current one is no longer even trying to hide the disconnect between his discourse and what the players are interpreting on the field. If the latest in a season of unthinkables comes to pass on Tuesday night and Bayern are eliminated from the Champions League by Lazio at the Allianz Arena, it would be no great surprise to see the team’s glum gatekeeper moved on ahead of his scheduled departure date.

Freiburg 2-2 Bayern Munich, Wolfsburg 2-3 Stuttgart, Darmstadt 0-6 Augsburg, Mainz 1-1 Mönchengladbach, Bochum 1-4 Leipzig, Union Berlin 0-2 Dortmund, Heidenheim 1-2 Eintracht Frankfurt, Hoffenheim 2-1 Werder Bremen, Köln 0-2 Bayer Leverkusen

Bayern, then, must look forward. And with Alonso beginning to look like the impossible dream, what if that name to take the helm was out of leftfield, yet a familiar name from the past? Saturday afternoon in Lower Saxony saw Stuttgart tighten their grip on third place with a win at Wolfsburg. If it wasn’t for Alonso then surely Stuttgart’s Sebastian Hoeness would be a shoo-in for coach of the season. The former Hoffenheim manager was a final throw of the dice 11 months ago, VfB’s fourth coach of a shambolic last campaign that required a playoff to avoid relegation to the second tier. Now, with far fewer resources than any of the competition, Hoeness breaking records at the other end of the table.

What he has steered Stuttgart to is extraordinary. They have never before had 50 points after 24 Bundesliga games, not even when they last won the title, in 2007. Only two teams with this many points in the bank at this stage have failed to finish in the top two, and none have failed to make the top four, so Deniz Undav’s suggestion in the week that it is “not smart” to deny Stuttgart’s Champions League credentials has mathematical context.

Joining the dots for a Munich-born, safe-hands candidate to step into the breach next season doesn’t take the most vivid imagination. This rapidly rising young coach may reaffirm his commitment to Stuttgart but when your father [Dieter] and uncle [Uli] are synonymous with Bayern and the latter is possibly the most influential personality in the club’s history, it is hard to obscure the family name. That’s not even mentioning Sebastian’s successful season as Bayern second-team coach in 2019-20, guiding them to the 3.Liga title.

“I can’t help the speculation,” Hoeness Jr told Sky after full time at Wolfsburg. “It’s not difficult for me [to say] because I feel totally comfortable at VfB and working with the boys is really fun.” Yet at Stuttgart there are clear limits. Top scorer Serhou Guirassy and Undav (on loan from Brighton) may both be gone next season. There are financial realities, even with an unexpected Champions League bounty. Who wants to be left clearing up the empties the morning after the party?

A quick peek to the opposite bench, on the other hand, let Hoeness know that in coaching, timing is everything. Wolfsburg’s sporting director, Sebastian Schindzielorz, spent Saturday night propping up Niko Kovac on ZDF’s Aktuelle Sportstudio (“we’re standing by him”) but that the end is nigh was clear on a day which could have been past Bayern coach versus future Bayern coach. Kovac’s current career arc is perhaps something for Tuchel to consider too. At the moment only Leverkusen provide certainty in Bundesliga circles.