UFC Vegas 100 predictions, odds, full card picks: Can Neil Magny turn back Carlos Prates?

We have arrived, ladies and gentlemen. One hundred UFC Fight Night events inside the UFC APEX Facility.

To say "2020 was four years ago" doesn't do it justice. It's a blur that feels even older, and we've all gladly left it behind (everyone but the UFC, that is).

Thanks to the COVID-19 pandemic, the promotion was forced to adapt and overcome the odds — or more literally, the restrictions — by hosting events in its own building. Guidelines and specific safety protocols have since been abandoned but the events remain commonplace. If you've been watching along throughout this era, you know the cards have been as far from "must-see" as it gets. The UFC essentially has tiered events now, starting with APEX Fight Nights and progressing to Fight Nights on the road then pay-per-views.

Unfortunately, but fittingly, UFC Vegas 100 defines an APEX event perfectly.

There are some highlights sprinkled throughout this largely mediocre event. The rising welterweight contender Carlos Prates is rightfully a featured attraction. In his first main event, Prates has a prime opportunity to showcase his skill set against the record-holding veteran Neil Magny.

To further laugh at the APEX concept, the MMA gods hit UFC Vegas 100 with injuries that made it even more missable. However, we still have fights to dissect.

Betting odds courtesy of BetMGM.

170lbs.: Neil Magny (+550) vs. Carlos Prates (-800)

Magny attempting to turn back a fresh contender is nothing new for the "GOATkeeper."

Optically and historically, Magny (29-12) is set up nicely to get the upset against Prates. "The Haitian Sensation" has alternated wins and losses in his last eight, entering this bout off an August knockout loss to Michael Morales. Additionally, Magny is an unheralded cardio king and the main event rounds are foreign territory to Prates.

Ultimately, that won't matter as Prates is seasoned enough (20-6). The Sao Paulo native fought overseas in ONE Warrior Series before landing stateside to win his way through LFA and Contender Series.

Prates, 31, has been a devastator of epic proportions on his current 10-fight winning streak (3-0 in UFC). "The Nightmare" is living up to his nickname, knocking out the likes of Li Jingliang, Charles Radtke and Trevin Giles in the Octagon thus far. He's a dangerous striker with sneaky grappling abilities, but the latter won't be needed against Magny.

The 37-year-old veteran's defense has faded dramatically in the twilight of his career and his chin reflects that against these younger power strikers. Magny's best hope is to survive the first three rounds and drag Prates into deep water.

This is the type of test Prates needs to determine whether or not he's a legitimate contender. I expect him to pass.

Pick: Prates

135lbs.: Ricky Turcios (+275) vs. Bernardo Sopaj (-350)

Ricky Turcios was a fun character and overall interesting dude in and out of the cage as he rose through "The Ultimate Fighter 29." He won the installment of the long-running tournament show, but dominance hasn't been a word associated with him.

Turcios is 2-2 in his four-fight UFC run with split decision wins, a unanimous decision loss and a second-round rear-naked choke to Raul Rosas Jr. his last time out in June. It's always a fun — or weird — time with Turcios in the Octagon. The problem is he's too comfortable putting himself in danger to be reliable in victory.

Like Turcios, Bernardo Sopaj will look to rebound after he debuted in the UFC against Vinicius Oliveira this past March. The talented "Lok Dog" knocked out the Swede with a wild flying knee in Round 3. This came after an admirable and strong showing from Sopaj, though.

Sopaj has the striking edge pretty comfortably and hung in there with Oliveira. Turcios has to make this a dirty scramble fest but all fights start standing. Expect the "TUF" winner to get leg kicked into an eventual TKO or unanimous decision loss.

Pick: Sopaj

UPDATE: Turcios vs. Sopaj has been cancelled due to a Turcios medical issue.

185lbs.: Gerald Meerschaert (+240) vs. Reinier de Ridder (-300)

Reinier de Ridder's UFC debut coming on this card alone is a slap in the face. Getting slotted below the co-main event is even more offensive. Thankfully, he rightfully has the respect of the oddsmakers.

The former 205 and 225-pound ONE Championship titleholder has been one of the best fighters outside UFC since his 16-0 undefeated winning streak began building in said promotion five years ago. Outside of back-to-back borderline criminal pairings with the uber-talented heavyweight champion Anatoly Malykhin, "RDR" has been perfect in his 17-2 career.

De Ridder is one of the best submission artists in MMA with 11 victories on the mat. Arguably the most impressive of the bunch has been his inverted triangle against Vitaly Bigdash in 2022, a Submission of the Year contender. Primarily, the Dutch grappler has been a choke artist, sleeping or forcing his foes to tap in nine of those wins.

Gerald Meerschaert gives de Ridder an incredibly fun stylistic matchup to introduce him to the UFC audience. "GM3" is the all-time leader in UFC middleweight submissions with 11. His 12 overall finishes are also a divisional record.

I say it every time Meerschaert fights, but the guy is the definition of kill or be killed. He's only fought to a decision in seven out of 54 fights (37-17). There isn't much Meerschaert hasn't seen. Against de Ridder, we'll see some incredible scrambles and groundwork.

From a purely technical standpoint, de Ridder is a notch above. He'll be the second behind Jack Hermansson to submit "GM3."

Pick: de Ridder

115lbs.: Luana Pinheiro (+300) vs. Gillian Robertson (-400)

Regarding submission experts, we also have the women's multi-recordholder Gillian Robertson at UFC Vegas 100.

Like Meerschaert, Robertson has been speed-running her way into the history books at flyweight. Despite returning to strawweight last year, she's remained consistent and holds the overall finishes (7) and submissions (7) records for a woman in the promotion, period.

Very green at the time, I never would have expected the "TUF 26" alum to have the 22-fight career (14-8) she's had. Still just 29, a win over Luana Pinheiro would be Robertson's third straight at 115 pounds.

I'm not sure where things went wrong for Pinheiro. The Judo black belt entered the promotion through the Contender Series and scored finishes left and right to get there. While she was mostly submitting opponents, Pinheiro's hands and power were displayed in the process. Things started on the wrong foot (literally) when she won her UFC debut via up-kick DQ and an eventual split decision win over Michelle Waterson-Gomez showed glaring worries.

Pinheiro, 30, has almost entirely abandoned her Judo base, and if she can't succeed in grappling instances, her gas tank fades rapidly down the stretch. Robertson is always seeking submissions and is as dangerous as they come when on top. However, this matchup is favorable for her whether on top or bottom thanks to Pinheiro's strength and cardio depletion as fights prolong.

The fight within the fight will come down to who gets on top first. That's Robertson more often than not and she'll do so again to extend her record likely by armbar.

Pick: Robertson

185lbs.: Mansur Abdul-Malik (-375) vs. Duško Todorović (+300)

Mansur Abdul-Malik is set to shine at UFC Vegas 100.

The undefeated 6-0 prospect was one of the bright spots of this last Contender Series season. Abdul-Malik, 27, has been a cannon, finishing all his opponents with strikes standing or on the ground. Unfortunately for Dusko Todorovic, this is the exact matchup that's caused him trouble in the UFC.

Todorovic, 30, has shown promise against favorable opponents. However, more explosive strikers like Christian Leroy Duncan, Chidi Njokuani and Punahele Soriano have chinned him relatively easily. The 12-4 Todorovic's willingness to trade will be his downfall when he does so again vs. Abdul-Malik.

Pick: Abdul-Malik

Preliminary notes

Poor Karolina Kowalkiewicz and Denise Gomes were demoted from the third to last bout after Cody Garbrandt withdrew from his Miles Johns co-main event. That felt like a random shuffle, but this is another veteran vs. prospect pairing. Gomes has shown solid glimpses of promise, so I look forward to watching her keep developing.

Other than that, Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos gets to catch a warm body on short notice. Just UFC APEX things.

Quick picks:

Denise Gomes (-500) def. Karolina Kowalkiewicz (+360)

Gaston Bolaños (+180) def. Cortavious Romious (-225)

Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos (-700) def. Zack Scroggin (+500)

Matthew Semelsberger (+140) def. Charles Radtke (-165)

Da'Mon Blackshear (-300) def. Cody Stamann (+230)

Tresean Gore (-175) def. Antonio Trócoli (+145)

Melissa Mullins (-250) def. Klaudia Syguła (+200)