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Which of MLB's non-playoff teams are most likely to contend for October in 2025?

Writers from Yahoo Sports and MLB.com make their predictions for which squads will be back in the postseason next year

yahoo sports staff · mlb.com staff
·8-min read

The story below is a collaboration between writers from MLB.com and Yahoo Sports, who are joining forces this season to cover topics from around baseball.

Fortunes can change quickly in Major League Baseball.

Look no further than the Royals. They lost 106 games in 2023, but between an aggressive hot stove season, steps forward from young players, such as superstar shortstop Bobby Witt Jr., and some good breaks, they look like a near-lock for the postseason in 2024.

Not every example is so dramatic, of course. But in 2023, half of the 12 playoff teams (including both World Series participants) had not made the postseason in 2022. And it’s nearly certain that at least four playoff spots will turn over from ‘23 to ‘24.

Given that dynamic, we tasked six writers from MLB.com and Yahoo Sports with drafting teams that are out of the race this year but have the best chances of leaping into October in 2025. Available for consideration were the 13 teams with postseason odds below 1% as of Wednesday: the Rays, Rangers, Cardinals, Giants, Reds, Pirates, Blue Jays, Nationals, A’s, Angels, Rockies, Marlins and White Sox.

Here is a look at who we selected and why.

This prediction puts a lot of faith in the Pirates’ starting rotation — but what’s not to like about that group? You know about possible National League Rookie of the Year Paul Skenes. He and fellow rookie Jared Jones are a pair of legitimate aces. 2024 Opening Day starter Mitch Keller, the savvy veteran of the bunch at age 28, has turned in another solid season. And perhaps you haven’t noticed that right-hander Luis L. Ortiz ranks among the top 20 starters by pitcher run value since he moved into the Bucs’ rotation on July 7. Bailey Falter might not stick in the rotation next year, but he has been exactly league-average this season (100 ERA+), and you could do a lot worse with your No. 5 spot.

With that staff serving as the franchise’s foundation, the Pirates can succeed without a top-flight offense. Pittsburgh has scuffled all year at the plate, but Oneil Cruz and Bryan Reynolds remain as quality building blocks. Andrew McCutchen knows he can still get it done and wants to return in 2025. The team should expect to get more from Ke’Bryan Hayes and Bryan De La Cruz, both of whom will be 28 next season. And catcher Joey Bart, the No. 2 pick in the 2018 draft by the Giants, seems to have finally unlocked his power potential with Pittsburgh, slugging 13 homers in 68 games.

Again, there is a lot riding on the shoulders (and elbows) of those pitchers. But if they can stay healthy while the bats take reasonable steps forward, the Pirates will be contenders at this time next year.

— Brian Murphy (MLB)

Maybe it's just the thrill of getting to watch Kumar Rocker and Jacob deGrom start on back-to-back days this week. But how could you not be excited right now about the Rangers going into 2025?

Next year's Rangers should be the perfect mix of the proven stars who already led the team to a World Series championship and the organization's young talent on the rise. Corey Seager, Marcus Semien and Adolis García will be there to anchor the lineup. Wyatt Langford, Evan Carter and Josh Jung will be another year older and another year better. Rocker looks nasty. With a little luck, his old college co-ace, Jack Leiter, will put it all together, too. Oh, yeah, and deGrom is back. And he's the best pitcher in the world when he's on the mound.

Best-case scenario for the 2025 Rangers? This team could be even better than the one that won the 2023 World Series. They should be a powerhouse. They're an easy playoff pick.

— David Adler (MLB)

The Reds are a lot closer to playoff contention than many fans probably realize, and they could very well find themselves ready to make noise in 2025.

Consider: They've averaged 4.37 runs per game this season, which ranks eighth in the NL. All seven teams above them are in the playoff race as we head down the stretch. On the mound, Cincinnati has a team ERA of 4.05, which also ranks eighth. And once again, every team that ranks better is still alive in the race for a postseason berth.

There's more: Despite injury issues with starters Hunter Greene, Andrew Abbott and Nick Lodolo, Cincy's team WHIP of 1.25 is tied for sixth in the NL, and their 1,261 strikeouts also rank sixth. And the Reds' .238 average against is tied for fourth. So the pitching ingredients — led by legitimate Cy Young candidate Greene — are there to make things interesting next year if everyone can stay healthy.

On offense, the Reds are top-10 in runs scored and homers. And thanks in large part to the ever-exciting Elly De La Cruz, Cincinnati ranks second in the league in steals. The Reds also have four regulars — De La Cruz, Jeimer Candelario, Spencer Steer and Tyler Stephenson — who have already reached or are on pace to finish with 20 or more homers. That's a solid group of bats, to be sure.

The Reds' playoff aspirations the past couple of seasons have gone unrealized. But as their core continues to jell, and with a strategic addition or two this offseason, October dreams could soon become October reality.

— Jason Foster (MLB)

While there’s no question that Toronto qualifies as one of 2024’s most disappointing teams, I’m glad the Blue Jays didn’t look at their poor first half as reason to tear the roster down to the studs and enter a full-blown rebuild. Their deadline strategy of selling off expiring contracts while keeping both Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Bo Bichette signaled an intention to bounce back in 2025, and there’s plenty of talent still in place to believe the Jays can do just that. Dealing away so many veterans also opened the door for a number of encouraging second-half breakouts from players who should play key roles in 2025, including right-hander Bowden Francis, infielder Spencer Horwitz (.834 OPS) and trade acquisitions Joey Loperfido and Will Wagner.

A lot hinges on Bichette returning to form and the front office fixing a bullpen that was one of baseball’s worst, but I’m inclined to flush this year for Bichette based on his track record and the injuries he was dealing with. Plus, it’s a lot easier to quickly fix a bullpen than it is to overhaul a rotation, and Toronto’s starting staff remains in solid shape moving forward. If Toronto can add a bat or two this winter to complement its MVP candidate in Guerrero and a hopefully resurgent Bichette, I can absolutely see this team right back in the wild-card mix at this time next year.

— Jordan Shusterman (Yahoo Sports)

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Barring a late September charge, this will be Tampa Bay’s first season under .500 since 2017 and its first October on the couch since 2018. No organization in baseball walks the walk of "sustainable winning" more than the Rays.

Still, Tampa’s substandard 2024 wasn’t exactly a massive surprise. An avalanche of starting pitching injuries — Jeffrey Springs, Shane McClanahan, Drew Rasmussen and Shane Baz all missed significant time — led to a slow start. Wander Franco, the generationally talented, 23-year-old shortstop who was set to be the face of the franchise, is unlikely to ever play for Tampa Bay again after being charged with sexual abuse and sexual exploitation in the Dominican Republic. A disappointing first half led to the departures via trade of the Rays' two best position players: Randy Arozarena and Isaac Paredes.

But as always, the future is bright under the dome of Tropicana Field. Consensus top-five prospect Junior Caminero has flashed his immense potential in a 30-game sample as a 21-year-old. He could break out in a big way next season. There’s also reason to expect the rotation to be substantially better in 2025, with a full season of Baz (3.28 ERA this year in 60 1/3 innings), more steps forward from Taj Bradley and the return of McClanahan. The offense, which currently sits 28th in MLB in runs scored, needs to unearth a few more contributors, but that’s kind of what the Rays always do … right?

— Jake Mintz (Yahoo Sports)

A year ago, we were talking about the Oakland A’s in a similar fashion as we talk about the Chicago White Sox. But what the A’s have that the Sox don’t is a young core that has seemingly taken leaps forward in their development. Oakland has done a great job of finding talented players who are looking for second opportunities and getting the best out of them. Brent Rooker, JJ Bleday, Shea Langeliers and others have all gotten opportunities to shine.

And with the development of young stars such as Lawrence Butler, Oakland has a chance to make another big step in 2025. This year’s A’s have been one of the best teams in baseball since July 1, and if they can carry that into next season, their first year out of Oakland could see them knocking on the door of the postseason.

— Russell Dorsey (Yahoo Sports)