Why Exeter Chiefs are in the middle of their worst slump in a decade

Even now, on the back of four consecutive defeats to begin the campaign, Rob Baxter will not be panicking. Add in the final match of last season – a 40-22 thumping in Leicester – and Exeter Chiefs have registered five straight Premiership losses; their worst league slump since 2014.

But their figurehead is a measured operator with immense experience. On Saturday, after Bristol Bears had ransacked Sandy Park in thrilling style, Baxter was blunt about Chiefs’ shortcomings and is sure to face up to them.

Eleven months previously, Exeter had beaten Bristol to go top of the Premiership. As it stands, ahead of a trip to Newcastle Falcons in round five, only bonus points keep them above their next opponents at the bottom. What, then, is behind this difficult start?

Regression to the mean

Chiefs were the surprise package of the 2023-24 campaign, thanks partly to some inherent advantages. With the omission of Henry Slade from the England party, the club only contributed three players – Christ Tshiunza and Dafydd Jenkins of Wales and Georgia prop Nika Abuladze – to the World Cup.

Baxter could keep most of his squad together over an extended pre-season, embedding a new defensive system and building cohesion in the Premiership Cup.

Saracens, their opponents on the opening day of the league season, had 13 players on international duty in France prior to the start of domestic action. Exeter caught them cold, storming to a 65-10 win.

A month later, in round six, they needed a last-gasp penalty from Henry Slade to edge out Gloucester before squeezing past Newcastle Falcons 20-14. When the Champions Cup began, tight triumphs over Toulon and Munster demonstrated admirable grit.

This term, they have found themselves on the wrong side of three matches – against Leicester Tigers, Northampton Saints and Bristol Bears – that have been decided on the final play. To some degree, this season was always likely to be trickier because rivals would be more familiar with their rookies.

Ross Vintcent continues to produce effervescent performances and was superb in the Bristol loss. Immanuel Feyi-Waboso has conjured tries out of nothing, offloading to Greg Fisilau against Leicester and scoring four himself.

For all the hearts they won, though, Chiefs still lost eight of 18 matches in the Premiership last season and ended up seventh. Fine margins flip perceptions quickly in either direction.

Red zone issues

Four games in, only Gloucester (24) and Newcastle (21) have conceded more tries than Exeter’s tally of 16. They are undoubtedly missing Slade, a steward of their rush defence, but have been broken down in different ways.

Leicester outmuscled them in the mauling exchanges, and not just for the 20-metre march that set up Tommy Reffell’s match-winner. Northampton found space outside blitzing wings with clever kick-passes. Saracens won the aerial battle convincingly and feasted on the scraps.

Bristol mitigated Exeter’s line-speed by bouncing back to the short side and manufacturing overloads, scoring their first two tries with those tactics. In the second half, following Dan Frost’s yellow card, they simply capitalised on tiredness and poor decision-making from Exeter.

Down to 14 men, Chiefs were picked off directly from restarts and Josh Hodge’s overexuberance at the breakdown left space to expose and was singled out for criticism by Baxter.

At the other end of the pitch, in what is known as the ‘red zone’, Exeter used to be ruthless. They would exert pressure with scrum dominance, powerful mauling and relentless picking and going. Scott Sio’s early fumble on Saturday, around three metres out from the try-line, was a precursor to further turnovers in the Bears 22.

Gabriel Oghre nabbing possession from Sam Maunder at the tail of a drive was particularly jarring. Chiefs should have been home and hosed, as they should have been against Leicester prior to some wasteful moments deep in opposition territory. Leave the door ajar and you are asking for trouble.

Cursing their luck

Injury clusters tend to hurt the most when they are concentrated in one positional group. Exeter’s casualties in the early part of 2024-25 have hit their midfield options hard. As well as Slade, their front-line place-kicker, they are missing Zack Wimbush and new signing Tamati Tua. Olly Woodburn has been filling in at outside centre.

At one stage against Bristol, while Harvey Skinner was undergoing a head injury assessment, they had a centre partnership of Ben Hammersley and Olly Woodburn.

Joe Hawkins had moved to fly-half. In that period, they swept across the Bears 22 for several phases before Feyi-Waboso picked from a breakdown and scorched past three defenders. Individual brilliance rescued some rather lateral and unthreatening team attack.

Crucially, Slade, Jenkins and Jacques Vermeulen, three senior figures, have been absent concurrently. Physical Vermeulen returned from a knee complaint and immediately underlined his value this weekend.

Leadership density is a rather ghastly phrase, but Exeter are undoubtedly thin in that department. Baxter agreed “without doubt” that this was an issue, also suggesting that his side were short on “followship”.

Baxter may reflect on his own bench use. Vermeulen and Franco Molina, the new injury-dispensation recruit from Argentina who was prominent at the line-out and in the loose, seemed spent when they were replaced against Bristol in the third quarter. But could the all-action Vintcent have carried on beyond the 68th minute?

After Baxter had exhausted his six-two split of forwards, Jack Dunne succumbed to an ankle injury, meaning that Exeter stayed down to 14 despite Dan Frost returning from the sin bin. It was that sort of afternoon. It has been that sort of month.

Resisting big recruitment moves

Recruitment is probably the easiest area in which to be wise after the event. But Exeter evidently targeted propping back-up in the off-season, acquiring Will Goodrick-Clarke and Kwenzo Blose at loosehead and Jimmy Roots at tighthead. Tua is an exciting addition. Retaining Slade would have been an expensive priority.

Intriguingly, Baxter resisted the urge – if he felt any in the first place – to strengthen his stable of half-backs. Skinner and Will Haydon-Wood are his senior fly-halves. The former has made around 90 Premiership outings, the latter close to 40.

At scrum-half, the pecking order does not appear certain. You have a gaggle of players – Niall Armstrong, Tom Cairns, Sam Maunder, Stu Townsend and Will Becconsall – all vying for a role.

To avoid languishing in the lower reaches of the Premiership for much longer, Chiefs require conviction and accuracy in those pivotal positions. A mix-up at the base of a ruck was the catalyst for Bristol’s resurgence.

Baxter is obviously trusting the incumbents to grow into assured game controllers rather than going to market for upgrades.

As he said about the team as a collective on Saturday: “We’ll come through it… I’d just like to come through it a little quicker than they are doing.”