Why Manchester City are ominous Premier League title favorites

As the dust settles after the Christmas programme there is one obvious winner: Manchester City. Not only did the champions win the Club World Championship with a pair of straightforward victories over Urawa Red Diamonds and Fluminense, but they returned to England to find nobody had really taken advantage of their absence. Wins over Everton and Sheffield United have them five points off the top with a game in hand.

Despite a sense that they’re still nowhere near their best, City have won six of their last seven games in all competitions and won’t play another side in the top eight until the Manchester derby on the first weekend of March. Kevin De Bruyne, Erling Haaland and Jérémy Doku should all be back from injury within the next month. It may be that the run of successive victories everybody has been predicting for them has already begun.

Liverpool, at least, made sure the gap remains at five points with their 4-2 win over Newcastle United on Monday. It perhaps doesn’t make much sense to criticise a team that has just recorded a record high xG of 7.27, but that was a game that wasn’t wrapped until Mohamed Salah’s 86th-minute penalty and, as such, it fitted the Christmas pattern. Although they beat Burnley 2-0 on Boxing Day, that was a match they should have had wrapped up far earlier than they did, while they had the better of draws against Arsenal and, especially, Manchester United without being able to take advantage.

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It’s not just that the lack of ruthlessness in the final third risks dropping points, but it creates a frustration that, at the moment, seems to be manifesting, among fans at least, in ludicrous conspiracy theories about refereeing (the soft award of the second penalty, presumably, was Anthony Taylor under deep cover, giving Liverpool a decision in a game they were going to win anyway to cover his tracks).

Aston Villa are three points back in second, testament to the extraordinary job Unai Emery has done since taking over, but they struggled to take seven points from a relatively simple festive programme. January, with an FA Cup tie at Middlesbrough and the winter break, may offer some respite but since the second half of the win over Arsenal, they have looked distinctly weary.

But the big losers of Christmas were Arsenal, back-to-back defeats to West Ham and Fulham meaning they have taken just four points from their last five games. They are not entirely out of the race yet, and the lingering hope for the challengers is that City face a brutal run through March – United, Liverpool, Brighton, Arsenal and Villa – but it’s impossible not to think of where Arsenal could be in relation to them. As it is they are level on points having played a game more, but even with the defeat at Villa and the draw at Liverpool, wins over West Ham and Fulham would have had them six points clear of City, the sort of margin that inevitably puts pressure on the chaser.

What’s worse is the manner of the defeats. For most of the first half of the season there was a sense that this Arsenal were less flamboyant than the side of last season but probably better-equipped for a serious run at the title because of their depth and enhanced defensive solidity. At some point, the expectation was, the midfield would settle and there would be a return to the fluency of the first half of last season. Not only has that not happened, but the front three have lost form collectively and the knock-on effect of that has been a general sapping of confidence.

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It was Newcastle who showed the way in November, doubling up on Bukayo Saka and Gabriel Martinelli. With the wide players neutralised, it became apparent that there was very little creativity coming from the centre. Although Martin Ødegaard’s form has improved over the past few weeks, and despite occasional flickers from Kai Havertz, that remains true, the situation worsened by the lack of a really clinical finisher. It is true, as many have pointed out, that you don’t need a great goalscorer to win the league but it does help when you’re not playing well as a collective to have somebody who can burgle something from nothing.

And what the lack of goals does is to put pressure on the defence and the truth is that Arsenal have really not been great at dealing with pressure or adversity since about 2005. The defending for Fulham’s winner was shambolic, three Arsenal players getting indecisive touches before Bobby Decordova-Reid jabbed it over the line. Freak goals happen but this feels like a pattern. Nobody took responsibility – which has become an unfortunate characteristic. That the shallowness of Arsenal’s squad was exposed late last season is obvious, but that doesn’t mean they didn’t also bottle it to an extent.

All of which leaves a flawed Liverpool top, but with City looking extremely ominous heading into the second half of the campaign.