Advertisement

Will CeeDee Lamb's fantasy football value tank without Dak Prescott?

dalton del don
Fantasy analyst
·4-min read

It can be so easy to panic in fantasy football. After all, we have a very limited amount of time to witness and analyze a player's performance. But never fear — Dalton Del Don is here to gauge exactly how worried we should be — if at all.

The Cowboys’ offense remains dysfunctional (ranking 20th in points per game after leading the league last season), and Dak Prescott is likely headed to IR with a hamstring injury. Lamb is also dealing with a sprained AC joint in his shoulder, leaving his Week 10 status in question.

Lamb has been a mild fantasy disappointment as the WR5 in fantasy points per game after getting drafted as the WR1 in most leagues. But he’s racked up a whopping 43 targets over the last three games, and his volume didn’t take off until the second half of last season as well. Lamb saw a 32.8% target share, a 41.2% first-read target rate and a 78.6% catchable target rate from Cooper Rush last season. He’s averaged 9.5 targets, 82 yards and 16.7 fantasy points over six games with Dallas’ backup QB.

Lamb remains a top-10 WR without Prescott, but his ceiling lowers. He also has a tough matchup this week against a Philadelphia secondary that’s ceded the fewest fantasy points to wide receivers over the last four weeks. The Cowboys have a lowly 17.25-point implied total this week, and Lamb’s shoulder is banged up. Expectations should be lowered accordingly.

Subscribe to Yahoo Fantasy Forecast on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, YouTube or wherever you listen.

Caleb Williams & DJ Moore, Chicago Bears

Williams had a strong performance in London, but he’s getting just 5.7 YPA with a 2:4 TD:INT ratio over four official road games. He’s taken a whopping 20 sacks over those four contests. He’s averaged 189.2 passing yards with a 3:4 TD:INT ratio over six games this season when not facing a bottom-two pass defense in DVOA.

Williams ranks dead last in catchable target rate outside the pocket while struggling mightily with downfield accuracy. The rookie owns a 43.1 completion percentage and has gotten just 5.1 YPA under pressure, which is often thanks to Chicago’s offensive line. We’ve seen more growth from Bryce Young over the last two weeks, although Williams gets a highly favorable home matchup Sunday.

Moore has been the WR36 in fantasy points per game and has yet to reach 11.5 fantasy points in any game this season. He ran 100% of the routes last week but saw fewer targets than Keenan Allen and had fewer receiving yards than Rome Odunze. The rookie wideout has seen a marked increase in usage since Chicago’s bye, and Moore appears to be as frustrated as any player in the league.

Some panic is certainly warranted, but not all hope is lost. Moore is the WR15 in expected fantasy points, and his upcoming schedule looks highly favorable. Moore just needs Williams to play better.

Worthy failed to pull down either of his two targets Monday night, with his inability to stay in bounds costing the Chiefs a long touchdown. The rookie finished with negative-10 yards from scrimmage. Worthy hasn’t produced while seeing increased targets since Rashee Rice went down, ranking among the bottom of the league in yards per route run despite having Patrick Mahomes throwing to him in an Andy Reid offense. Mahomes' completion percentage has dropped 25% when targeting Worthy this season. Worthy appears to be Reid’s latest gadget player experiment, unable to beat press or run a full route tree.

Moreover, DeAndre Hopkins emerged as Mahomes’ preferred wide receiver during his second game in Kansas City, when he saw the same number of targets (nine) as the rest of KC’s WRs combined. Worthy is sure to have spike weeks in this offense, but that makes him a classic “better in best ball” player for now.

Waddle had fantasy managers panicking last week, but they may be in the coping corner now. Waddle caught a touchdown Sunday, but he also got banged up again, saw just two targets and finished with negative receiving yards thanks to comically losing 23 yards on the game’s final play.

Tua Tagovailoa’s average intended air yards (5.5) is almost a full half yard lower than any other quarterback this season (Patrick Mahomes’ 5.9 is second lowest). De’Von Achane has emerged as Miami’s No. 2 receiver, while Jonnu Smith has a higher target share (19.4%) than Waddle (13.7%!) in games with Tagovailoa this season.

Waddle has seen just 12% of the targets since Miami’s bye, and the Dolphins have the league’s third lowest neutral pass rate over the last month despite Tagovailoa’s return. Waddle looks like another spike-week dependent wideout with a much lower floor than expected given his ADP of around pick 40. He gets a possibly favorable matchup indoors against the Rams on Monday night, but Waddle’s new role is highly concerning.