Yahoo PGA DFS Picks: BMW Championship Cash and GPP Strategy

BMW Championship

Castle Rock, Colorado
Castle Pines Golf Club - Par 72 - 8,130 yards
Field - 50 entrants
Purse - $20M

The Preview

Fifty players extend their 2024 campaigns at the second leg of the FedExCup Playoffs as the PGA Tour heads to Castle Rock, Colorado for the first time since 2006 this week for the BMW Championship, where Castle Pines Golf Club is set to become the longest course in Tour history at 8,130 yards. However, the altitude in the Rockies will have this layout playing much shorter than it appears on paper, though bombers still figure to maintain an advantage in the thin air at nearly 6,300 feet above sea level. Nonetheless, expect plenty of navigation through winding doglegs lined with pine trees into quick greens, which are surrounded by four-inch rough. Outside of the possibility for scattered thunderstorms Thursday afternoon, the weather forecast looks rather promising for favorable scoring conditions with a trip to East Lake on the line.

Recent Champions

2023 - Viktor Hovland (Olympia Fields)
2022 - Patrick Cantlay (Wilmington)
2021 - Patrick Cantlay (Caves Valley)
2020 - Jon Rahm (Olympia Fields)
2019 - Justin Thomas (Medinah)
2018 - Keegan Bradley (Aronimink)
2017 - Marc Leishman (Conway Farms)
2016 - Dustin Johnson (Crooked Stick)
2015 - Jason Day (Conway Farms)
2014 - Billy Horschel (Cherry Hills)

Key Stats to Victory

SG: Approach
Total Driving
Par-5 Efficiency
Birdies or Better Percentage

Yahoo Value Picks

Based on $200 salary cap

Cream of the Crop

Scottie Scheffler - $45

Scheffler returned value at the top of the Yahoo board once again this past week, posting his 11th 100-plus point effort of the season with 19 total birdies and a fourth-place finish at the FedEx St. Jude Championship where he ranked top-3 among the field in both SG: Off-the-Tee and GIR percentage. The No. 1 player in the world remains an easy click for as long as his salary sticks below the $50 mark.

Xander Schauffele - $44

The red-hot Schauffele followed up his second major victory of the year with a T9-T2 stretch at the Olympics and the FedEx St. Jude Championship while improving to second in SG: Tee-to-Green this season, but he's also No. 1 in SG: Putting over his last 24 measured rounds. Yahoo's soft pricing, combined with the risk tolerant nature of lineup building in no-cut events, makes it very simple to stack Scheffler-Schauffele as anchors, so expect it to be a popular strategy.

Glue Guys

Russell Henley - $35

The middle ranges are fairly barren of intriguing options this week, especially considering how common stars-and-scrubs builds will be, but Henley is a viable lower-owned pivot in GPPs despite not being a bomber. He's top-10 in both SG: APP and Prox: 175-200 over his last 24 rounds, and his precision off the tee should allow him to avoid the four-inch rough that lines the fairways at Castle Pines.

Tony Finau - $30

The Utah native and Scottsdale resident has plenty of experience navigating his ball around venues that are impacted by either altitude or hot/dry air, so Castle Pines Golf Club could be an easier adjustment for Finau than the rest of his competition this week. More importantly, however, is a $30 salary that represents quite a steal compared to his relatively lofty market value elsewhere in the betting and DFS streets. Over his past 24 rounds, Finau is second in SG: T2G, second in Par-5 Efficiency and third in Opportunities Gained, showcasing quite a bit of upside if the putter cooperates.

Bargain Bin

Justin Thomas - $24

Dropping to a season-low $24 salary with just one top-25 result throughout his past six outings, Thomas' length off the tee can still provide enough of a ceiling to produce for us in GPPs, especially on layouts with a quartet of par-5s like we see here in Castle Rock, and he's 11th in SG: T2G over his last 24 rounds. He just ranked sixth among the field at TPC Southwind in driving distance and 10th in SG: APP, but Thomas lost 3.3 strokes on the greens last week.

Sam Burns - $23

Maybe it was the infamous snapped driver, but Burns' salary actually decreased here by a couple bucks to $23 despite his top-5 finish last week in Memphis where he gained at least seven strokes putting for the second time since the U.S. Open, though he also ranked T8 in GIR percentage on the way to 22 total birdies and two eagles, so it wasn't solely some flat-stick fluke. On the season, Burns is second on Tour in Birdie or Better percentage, second in putting average and 13th in total driving.