PGA DFS Picks: Charles Schwab Challenge Cash and GPP Strategy

Charles Schwab Challenge

Fort Worth, Texas
Colonial Country Club - Par 70 - 7,209 yards
Field - 120 entrants
Purse - $8.7M

The Preview

Despite being sandwiched between a major championship and a designated event on the PGA Tour's 2023 calendar, Colonial Country Club's prestige has managed to draw more than half of the current FedExCup standings' top-25 players as the Charles Schwab Challenge hosts a limited field of 120 entrants. The invitational setting means a larger percentage of the field will make the 36-hole cut, enhancing the likelihood of higher 6/6 rates and inflating risk tolerance for the experienced DFS aficionados in your large-field GPPs. Therefore, stars and scrubs strategies could be a bit more popular than usual.

As for the historic Colonial Country Club itself, narrow tree-lined fairways, doglegs and puny bentgrass greens will be on display, emphasizing accuracy off the tee and precision with full wedges/short irons as nine of the layout's par-4s measure 445 yards or less. In addition to small green complexes, tricky bermuda rough limits GIR percentages despite the shorter length of these par-4s, while all four of Colonial's par-3s measure at least 190 yards. In contrast to recent years, however, the typically brutal Texas winds are expected to remain relatively tame throughout the tournament, which would hike birdie rates as the eventual contenders likely flirt with the 15-under-par mark by Sunday afternoon.

Recent Champions

2022 - Sam Burns
2021 - Jason Kokrak
2020 - Daniel Berger
2019 - Kevin Na
2018 - Justin Rose
2017 - Kevin Kisner
2016 - Jordan Spieth
2015 - Chris Kirk
2014 - Adam Scott
2013 - Boo Weekley

Key Stats to Victory

SG: Approach
Driving accuracy
Proximity: 125-175 yards
Scrambling

Yahoo Value Picks

Based on $200 salary cap

Cream of the Crop

Scottie Scheffler - $49

Much like we saw at the non-designated AT&T Byron Nelson, Scheffler's outright odds to win have shrunk to 4/1 or shorter, so a $49 Yahoo salary in the DFS market is a much more affordable way to gain exposure to such a dominant player with all that win equity, seeking his first victory since THE PLAYERS Championship over two months ago. The Dallas-area resident just paced the PGA Championship field in SG: Tee-to-Green, but he also gained more than a stroke putting for the first time since February's Genesis Invitational. He's still 59th or worse in both SG: Putting and scrambling over his last 24 measured rounds, but Scheffler is fully capable of positive regression in the short-game department as he looks to avenge his playoff loss to Sam Burns here last year.

Viktor Hovland - $42

En route to his third consecutive top-10 result in a major championship, Hovland gained a career-high 10.6 strokes on his approaches at Oak Hill, but he also picked up a combined 5.8 strokes on and around the greens to shush his doubters for at least a few days. Looking ahead to Colonial Country Club where he's placed top-25 in each of his first two appearances, Hovland is still priced below names like Max Homa ($44) — who's finished 43rd or worse in three of four starts dating to the Masters — and Jordan Spieth ($46) — who's not quite at 100 percent with the wrist injury. Hovland ranks top-3 in both the key ranges of Prox: 125-150 and Prox: 150-175 over his last 36 rounds, and he's also top-3 in Par-4 Efficiency and Opportunities Gained within this sample.

Justin Rose - $37

Rose was the last champion to reach 20-under-par here at the 2018 edition of the Charles Schwab Challenge, when he gained just north of 10 strokes with his irons on the way to a tournament-best 57 greens in regulation and 25 total birdies. The Englishman's iron play has been strong in 2023 as well, gaining strokes on approach in eight straight measured events since January's Farmers Insurance Open. Rose's putter came to life in Rochester this past week where he ultimately tied for ninth, and he's now fourth in Par-4 Efficiency across his last 12 rounds.

Glue Guys

Russell Henley - $35

Henley's impressive stretch of top-20s against strong fields from THE PLAYERS Championship through the RBC Heritage came to an end with a missed cut at Oak Hill last week, but he still gained 3.7 strokes approaching the green in just 36 holes at the PGA, so it's completely fine to target Henley's ball-striking upside at $35 while some of our competitors worry about the fairly meaningless MC and a lack of admirable course history. It wouldn't be surprising to see Henley go somewhat overlooked in this spot with many gamers electing to either spend a couple extra dollars on the aforementioned Rose or Rickie Fowler at $37, or drop down for a bit of savings to the next two guys in this section.

Denny McCarthy - $33

Well known as one of the best putters on the planet, McCarthy's ball striking hasn't been too shabby as of late, either, which has allowed him to finish top-30 in five consecutive stroke-play outings since a T13 at THE PLAYERS. He gained a season-high 4.3 strokes with his irons at the Valspar Championship in March and then another 3.9 strokes on approach last week in New York, guiding him to third in Par-4 scoring and seventh in P4: 400-450 Efficiency over his last 24 rounds. Additionally, he's been well on the positive side of Good Drives Gained throughout these past five starts, which is a Fantasy National metric that indicates drives where the player either hits the fairway off the tee or misses the fairway but still manages to hit the green/fringe in regulation.

Cam Davis - $32

Davis should be a popular selection this week given the $32 salary is a discount compared to his current market value in the betting and DFS streets, along with the fact that he tied for seventh here at Colonial last year when he gained strokes across the board after holding a share of the first-round lead. He's now coming off a T4 at the PGA Championship, thanks in large part to a closing five-under 65 as he racked up four birdies and an eagle Sunday. Davis ended the week at Oak Hill behind only Scheffler in SG: T2G, but the former also ranked third among his peers in scrambling. Diving into his past 24 rounds, Davis ranks second in Opportunities Gained, sixth in SG: Off-the-Tee and ninth in proximity from 125-150 yards.

Bargain Bin

Christiaan Bezuidenhout - $26

Bezuidenhout is going to pop in everyone's models this week (No. 3 in mine) with five straight outings of at least 3.5 strokes gained on approach, even gaining 4.4 shots with his irons in just two rounds at the PGA Championship last week. He missed the cut due to the worst putting performance of his entire PGA Tour career with an equal 4.4 strokes lost on the greens at Oak Hill, but he'd been great with the flat stick from THE PLAYERS through the AT&T Byron Nelson, so we'll consider that an anomaly rather than a concern. Bezuidenhout tied for 15th in his second career CSC showing last year when he gained a collective 8.9 strokes across his approaches and putting. Lately, he's been especially great with his full wedges and short irons, ranking No. 1 in Prox: 100-125 and 10th in Prox: 150-175 over his last 24 rounds, but he's also second in P3: 200-225 Efficiency during this span.

Alex Smalley - $22

Smalley has gained a combined 13.4 strokes from tee to green throughout his past two starts, resulting in back-to-back top-25s against loaded fields at the Wells Fargo Championship and the PGA Championship. Despite a streak of three consecutive missed cuts from the Valero Texas Open through the Mexico Open prior to the Wells Fargo, he's still gained strokes on approach in six straight outings since the Valspar Championship. And although his putting has been a primary weakness, Smalley has still managed to find himself in the No. 8 spot in terms of scrambling over his last 24 rounds. He posted a T27 in his CSC debut here last year when the putter cooperated, ranking T2 in total putts.

Ryan Palmer - $20

The Colonial CC member will enjoy home-field advantage at a familiar site where he's notched a quartet of top-6 finishes since 2012. More recently, he's top-25 in both SG: OTT and SG: APP over his past 24 rounds, and he just gained 9.6 strokes from tee to green on the way to a top-10 result back in Texas at the AT&T Byron Nelson. Sticking with that 24-round overview, Palmer also sits sixth in Opportunities Gained and 26th in Prox: 125-150 yards.

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