PGA DFS Picks: U.S. Open Cash and GPP Strategy

U.S. Open

Los Angeles, California
Los Angeles Country Club (North Course) - Par 70 - 7,423 yards
Field - 156 entrants
Purse - $17.5M

The Preview

The first leg of back-to-back national opens culminated in a glorious and free fashion this past Sunday with Nick Taylor's 72-foot eagle attempt finding the bottom of the cup to defeat Tommy Fleetwood on the fourth playoff hole at the RBC Canadian Open, making Taylor the first Canadian champion of the event since 1954 as the home crowd erupted in Toronto. The best golfers in the world now meet a new batch of local qualifiers at this week's U.S. Open for the third major championship of the year.

Los Angeles Country Club features relatively wide but sloping fairways that still require precision, penal bermuda rough and slippery bentgrass greens. Unless they have a ton of personal experience at LACC itself, I don't care much for all the California narratives this week as players have indicated the course plays more to a Floridian or Australian style. You'll notice five par-3s on the scorecard that range significantly in yardage, though the lengthy 11th hole plays downhill and typically downwind. Aside from the barrancas, LACC's difficulty level is intensified by a particularly demanding closing stretch from holes 16-18 where you'll find a couple par-4s measuring north of 500 yards. However, LACC could deliver more scoring opportunities than we're accustomed to seeing from a U.S. Open layout, and the weather should remain favorable in that aspect as well.

Recent Champions

2022 - Matt Fitzpatrick (The Country Club)
2021 - Jon Rahm (Torrey Pines)
2020 - Bryson DeChambeau (Winged Foot)
2019 - Gary Woodland (Pebble Beach)
2018 - Brooks Koepka (Shinnecock Hills)
2017 - Brooks Koepka (Erin Hills)
2016 - Dustin Johnson (Oakmont)
2015 - Jordan Spieth (Chambers Bay)
2014 - Martin Kaymer (Pinehurst)
2013 - Justin Rose (Merion)

Key Stats to Victory

SG: Approach
Bogey Avoidance
Par-3 Efficiency
Driving Accuracy

Yahoo Value Picks

Based on $200 salary cap

Cream of the Crop

Scottie Scheffler - $48

Per usual, Yahoo DFS offers an affordable avenue to gaining exposure on the tournament favorite, as Scheffler's 6/1 outright odds are much more difficult to stomach than a $48 salary. If Scheffler's historic tee-to-green run continues, it'll take just an average week with the putter to blow away the field. He finished third in his last two starts at the Memorial Tournament and the Charles Schwab Challenge despite losing a collective 13.1 strokes putting across the two events. It wouldn't be all that surprising to see a new flat stick in the bag for Scheffler on Thursday morning, and change is probably a good thing at this point.

Jon Rahm - $48

Rahm is on a pretty ridiculous ball-striking run of his own since the Masters victory in April, gaining a combined 35 strokes off the tee and with his irons throughout four events from the RBC Heritage to the Memorial Tournament. He's No. 1 in proximity from 200-plus yards and No. 2 in SG: Approach over his last 24 measured rounds. Rahm posted the fourth-worst putting performance of his entire career in his most recent outing at Muirfield Village, so he's due for positive regression on the greens in Los Angeles.

Brooks Koepka - $44

It feels boring to include Koepka and therefore round out the top-3 in the outright market, but Yahoo's softer pricing up top allows us to go all-in on the ultimate stars and scrubs GPP build if we'd like, as the Scheffler-Rahm-Koepka combination actually fits in a single lineup. There are definitely enough usable players at the $20 minimum salary to make this a viable strategy while creating uniqueness in skipping a massive portion of the board from $21 to $43. Koepka might even benefit from a bit of gambler's fallacy from the casual gamers after finishing T2-Win in the first two majors of the year, while a more popular Viktor Hovland draws attention at $43. Koepka gained 14.6 strokes from tee to green en route to his victory at the PGA Championship before adding a 12th-place result at LIV Golf DC.

Glue Guys

Hideki Matsuyama - $37

Matsuyama's long-iron prowess and scrambling ability set him up well for most U.S. Open venues, and that should be the case again at LACC where he lands in the No. 6 spot of my custom model this week. Not only is he top-10 in Prox: 175-200, Prox: 200-plus and bogey avoidance over his last 24 rounds, but he's also fourth in Opportunities Gained, flashing DFS scoring upside despite not having a top-10 finish since THE PLAYERS Championship. There's always a possibility that Matsuyama's neck issue could flare up, but it also helps limit his rostership.

Justin Rose - $34

Rose hasn't lost strokes with his irons since The American Express all the way back in January, and over his last 12 rounds, the Englishman ranks second to only Scheffler in SG: Approach and third in overall proximity. Rose has racked up five straight top-25s dating to the Masters, most recently placing eighth at the RBC Canadian Open where he finished top-10 among the field in driving accuracy, SG: Around-the-Green and total birdies.

Patrick Reed - $29

Despite placing T18-T4 in the first two majors this year, we might still be able to enjoy the typical everybody-hates-Reed ownership discount as plenty of casual gamers tend to exclude him from their player pools by default. He gained 8.5 strokes with his short game at the PGA Championship, and Reed's wizardry around the greens has allowed him to make the cut in eight of nine career U.S. Open appearances.

Bargain Bin

Dustin Johnson ($25) and Bryson DeChambeau ($22)

In the betting market, you'll find Johnson and DeChambeau above $40 names like Justin Thomas and Jason Day, so this is a glaring misprice of a couple LIV players and they should earn healthy rostership percentages on Yahoo as a result. DJ and Bryson already have U.S. Open wins on their major championship resumes, and DeChambeau gained 11.8 strokes ball striking on the way to his fourth-place finish at the PGA Championship last month.

Eric Cole - $20

Coming in at 10th or better in both scrambling and Birdies or Better Gained over his last 24 rounds, Cole's notched five top-25s in seven outings dating back to the Mexico Open, notably tying for sixth in Toronto this past week where he gained a career-high 3.6 strokes off the tee. He's also fourth in SG: Putting and fourth in three-putt avoidance throughout his past eight rounds. Cole figures to be one of the chalkier punt plays down here at the minimum price.

Austin Eckroat - $20

Eckroat shouldn't be quite as popular as Cole, but the former has rattled off three consecutive top-30s dating to his runner-up effort at the AT&T Byron Nelson, ascending to third in driving accuracy, third in Prox: 175-200 and ninth in Par-3 Efficiency over his last 12 rounds. He's gained an average of 2.4 strokes off the tee per event throughout his last five starts, and he's 18th on Tour in total driving this season.

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