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Yahoo Top 10: How much will wild Week 13 shake up the rankings?

ross dellenger
Senior College Football Reporter
·7-min read

The architects of the 12-team College Football Playoff format had many goals in mind when they spent several months in 2020 and 2021 creating the thing.

They wanted to heighten the value of a conference championship (five league title winners get auto bids and the top four are eligible for a first-round bye). They wanted to hold on-campus playoff games (seed Nos. 5-8 host first-round games). And, perhaps most importantly, they wanted to increase the relevancy of more late-season games by involving more teams (they added eight teams to the field).

Goals met!

Saturday’s playoff chaos? It would not have mattered much in a four-team playoff world. More than a half dozen games, irrelevant under the old system, were significant to the playoff chase.

Take, for instance, the madness in the SEC. Home underdogs essentially knocked two teams out of playoff contention with rousing upsets: Florida over Ole Miss and Oklahoma over Alabama. And a third upset — Auburn over Texas A&M in four overtimes — could send a three-loss team to the SEC championship game if the Aggies upset Texas next week.

How about all of those chaotic games in the Big 12? Kansas’ upset of Colorado has massive ramifications to the automatic bid process in the chase for the Big 12 crown, and Arizona State’s win over BYU did the same. In fact, four teams — Colorado, ASU, Iowa State and BYU — are tied atop the Big 12 standings.

Many or all of those games don’t matter in a four-team playoff field. But 12 teams? They’re incredibly impactful.

The Crimson Tide are likely to be on the outside of the playoff picture looking in after their third loss of the season. (Brian Bahr/Getty Images)
The Crimson Tide are likely to be on the outside of the playoff picture looking in after their third loss of the season. (Brian Bahr/Getty Images)

Same goes for Penn State-Minnesota, where the Nittany Lions, fake punt and all, survived chilly Minneapolis by one point. Boise State’s game against Wyoming presented significant ramifications to an expanded playoff as the Broncos survived to keep alive their path to get the Group of Five bid. Same for Notre Dame-Army — a duel that, just last year, would have been irrelevant in choosing the four teams.

The losses by Ole Miss and Alabama — both inside the CFP committee’s playoff projection last week — open the door for a host of others. The big winners of Saturday’s chaotic day?

(1) The ACC, whose title game runner-up (Miami or SMU?) and third-place team (Clemson?) are back in contention for one of the seven at-large bids.

(2) Georgia, who secured a bid into the SEC championship game with the Tide and A&M’s losses (they’ll play the winner of Texas vs. Texas A&M).

(3) Notre Dame, which, in all likelihood, will secure not just a playoff berth but a first-round home game in South Bend if the Irish win next week against USC.

(4) Indiana and Tennessee, two bubble teams whose path to the CFP opened up with all the upsets.

Another big winner: the Top 10, which got a bit of a shakeup. Let’s get to it!

This week: Bye

Next week: vs. Washington

Few teams punch their ticket to a conference championship game on a Tuesday afternoon while not playing. But that’s exactly what happened earlier this week with Oregon when the Big Ten, three days after the Ducks beat Wisconsin to move to 11-0, figured out that Dan Lanning’s team won all of the possible tiebreakers even if they lose to Washington. To be clear, they do not want to lose to the rival Huskies!

This week: beat Indiana 38-15

Next week: vs. Michigan

The Buckeyes are in position with a win over Michigan to advance to the Big Ten championship game for a rematch with the Ducks. The game in Indianapolis isn’t only for a championship. The winner will almost certainly get the No. 1 seed in the playoff and receive a first-round bye. And the loser? It is likely to be seeded fifth or sixth and must play in the first round.

This week: beat UMass 59-21

Next week: vs. Georgia Tech

This was a weird one. The Minutemen ran for more than 225 yards against Kirby Smart’s defense, a shocking result and one that may catch the eye of a few CFP committee members as the Bulldogs were one of the last at-large teams in the field, according to last week’s rankings. Georgia still carries with it two of the best wins of the season, however: at Texas and against Tennessee — two programs that, for now, are in the playoff field.

This week: beat Minnesota 26-25

Next week: vs. Maryland

His team on the ropes and a playoff berth potentially at stake, James Franklin yanked from his bag of tricks a fake punt in the closing minutes to secure the win over the Gophers. The Nittany Lions got another magical performance from their star tight end, Tyler Warren (eight catches for 102 yards), and seem to be set up to control their fate. Beat the skidding Terps next week and punch your ticket not just to the playoff but potentially a first-round game in Happy Valley.

This week: beat Kentucky 31-14

Next week: at Texas A&M

In Year 1 in the SEC, Steve Sarkisian has the Longhorns in position to advance to the conference title game with a win in Aggieland. However, there is concern. Quarterback Quinn Ewers, battling injuries for much of the season, dinged up his ankle in the win over the Wildcats, but he finished the game. His health looms ahead of the showdown in College Station.

This week: beat Army 49-14

Next week: at USC

The only thing standing between the Irish and a playoff berth is their old rival, the USC Trojans. Notre Dame has won nine straight since that stunning loss to Northern Illinois, and this one was never all that close. Notre Dame took a 14-0 lead within the first few minutes and cruised to a win at Yankee Stadium.

This week: beat Virginia 33-7

Next week: vs. Cal

Has any coach done a better job this season than Rhett Lashlee? In their first year in the ACC and after a mid-season starting QB change, the Mustangs punched their ticket to the league championship game to play either Miami or Clemson. The path to an improbable playoff berth — and potentially a first-round bye — lies before QB Kevin Jennings and crew.

This week: beat Wake Forest 42-14

Next week: at Syracuse

Is any team more explosive than Miami? When the Hurricanes and QB Cam Ward get hot, they can score in bunches. On Saturday, in a tight game with the Demon Deacons, Mario Cristobal’s group scored 25 unanswered starting late in the second quarter. The Canes can get to Charlotte for the ACC title game with a win next week.

This week: lost to Ohio State 38-15

Next week: vs. Purdue

The Hoosiers probably didn’t help themselves Saturday in the Horseshoe (151 yards of offense), but they got help from other places. They remain in our Top 10, barely, after the Rebels lost in Gainesville. But our rankings really don’t matter. How far will Curt Cignetti’s team fall in the CFP committee’s rankings? They’ll likely be on that top-12 bubble with the likes of Tennessee, SMU and Boise State.

This week: beat UTEP 56-0

Next week: at Vanderbilt

Welcome back to the Top 10, Vols, the beneficiaries of their SEC brethren (Ole Miss) losing. Tennessee’s résumé took a bit of a hit with Alabama’s loss at Oklahoma, but Josh Heupel’s team has one of the country’s toughest schedules, barely squeezing into our rankings over South Carolina, Boise State and Clemson.

Dropped out: Ole Miss (7)