Super Bowl 2024 picks: Patrick Mahomes and Chiefs try to stay hot against 49ers

LAS VEGAS — There are a lot of factors that go into making a point spread, and that's especially true for the Super Bowl, but there's also an important and basic factor for the Super Bowl LVIII line.

The San Francisco 49ers are favored over the Kansas City Chiefs because oddsmakers have them rated as the better team.

Do you trust what you've seen most recently over what has happened all season? That could guide your pick for this Super Bowl.

Over the past five months, the 49ers were the better team. The Chiefs had their struggles and lost six games. They were 9-6 after losing to the Las Vegas Raiders at home, though no other team in the AFC West challenged them for the division title. The issues with the offense were a running storyline all season.

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On the other hand, the 49ers spent most of the season considered by many to be the top team in the NFL. They looked dominant until Christmas, when the Baltimore Ravens blew them out. That seemed to shake them a bit, and in the playoffs, they needed second-half comebacks to win at home against the Green Bay Packers and Detroit Lions. They've looked a little off lately.

Meanwhile, the Chiefs have come alive in the playoffs. They beat the Miami Dolphins, Buffalo Bills and Baltimore Ravens, with the latter two wins coming on the road. That's three high-quality wins in a row. We have talked up the great Patrick Mahomes and how he's back in another Super Bowl, and we've forgotten all the issues the Chiefs had for most of the regular season.

(Taylar Sievert/Yahoo Sports)
(Taylar Sievert/Yahoo Sports)
(Yahoo Sports/Taylar Sievert)
(Yahoo Sports/Taylar Sievert)
(Yahoo Sports/Taylar Sievert)
(Yahoo Sports/Taylar Sievert)

If the Chiefs win, it wouldn't be the first time a team got hot at the right time and took the title. It's also very hard to argue that the Chiefs have been the best team this NFL season. They have the best player. They probably have the best coach. That helps. But they were a flawed team much of the season.

The 49ers are 2-point favorites for the Super Bowl, and that surprised many people. There's plenty of recency bias at play with a majority of people, including most of our Yahoo Sports crew, picking the underdog Chiefs. The 49ers' body of work is better, but all of the Chiefs money that came in right away ignored that (also, a majority of money being on the Chiefs might be a bad sign for Kansas City backers ... the house always wins).

Let's go with the 49ers -2 for the final pick this NFL season (and under 47.5, Christian McCaffrey for MVP at +450 with a lesser pick of Deebo Samuel for MVP at 25-to-1, and the over on 16.5 rushing attempts for Isiah Pacheco and under 17.5 receiving yards for Pacheco).

It's hard to go against Mahomes. But the 49ers have the better team.

Last week: 1-1

Season to date: 144-136-8